Every day it will be more clear that we cannot be alone
Ten years after the Brexit referendum, Michel Barnier — the man who negotiated Britain's departure — is now quietly sketching the terms of a possible return. Speaking with the measured authority of someone who has stood at the hinge of history, he suggests that the pound, the border, and the British sense of exception need not be surrendered at the door. What he is really saying is that the question of belonging is never fully closed, only deferred.
- Barnier's assertion that Britain could rejoin the EU while keeping the pound and Schengen opt-out directly challenges European voices warning of harsher re-entry terms.
- The polling stakes are stark: majority support for rejoining evaporates the moment special terms are removed, turning a political possibility into a political liability.
- Barnier points to precedent — five EU members never adopted the euro, Ireland sits outside Schengen — arguing the treaties offer more flexibility than Britain's critics admit.
- On the budget rebate, Barnier grows cautious, invoking solidarity over specifics, signalling that some negotiations remain open wounds rather than settled questions.
- Reset talks between the UK and EU resume in Brussels on July 22, but diplomats warn momentum is slipping as small disputes over student fees and youth exchanges quietly erode goodwill.
- Barnier frames the deeper argument not as politics but as physics: in a more dangerous world, no country — not France, not Germany, not Britain — can afford to stand alone.
Michel Barnier sat down with The Guardian just before the tenth anniversary of the Brexit referendum, and what he offered was something rare: a credible map back. The former EU chief negotiator — later France's prime minister — believes Britain could rejoin the bloc without surrendering the pound or accepting Schengen's passport-free travel. He sees no legal barrier. Precedent, he argues, already exists: five countries that joined since 2004 have never adopted the euro, and Ireland holds a formal Schengen exemption. The treaties impose no fixed timeline. Other states have negotiated their way around these requirements, and Britain could too.
The political arithmetic makes his argument consequential. YouGov polling shows 55 percent of Britons support rejoining — but only if the old opt-outs survive. Strip those away and support falls to 35 percent, with 43 percent opposed. The difference between a viable proposition and a non-starter is whether British citizens keep their pounds and their passports. Barnier knows this. He also knows that raising the possibility of retained exemptions is itself a way of keeping the door open.
On the question of recovering the budget rebate Thatcher once secured, Barnier was more guarded, invoking European solidarity rather than making promises. That negotiation, he suggested, would depend on what Britain actually asks for when the moment arrives — and he offered himself as a source of free advice when it does.
He was unambiguous about his view of the original decision. Brexit has not caused all of Britain's problems, he said, but it has made every one of them harder. He also warned that Keir Starmer's refusal to restore free movement blocks any deeper trade relationship — a red line Barnier will not help Britain cross, partly because doing so would fuel far-right movements across Europe at a moment when France itself faces the prospect of a far-right presidency.
Barnier proposed that Britain, alongside Ukraine and Norway, join a new European defence and security council — a body outside existing EU structures, focused on military cooperation, artificial intelligence, and emerging technologies. It is his way of saying that Britain's fate and Europe's are entangled whether or not the formal membership question is ever resolved. Reset talks between the UK and EU are due to resume in Brussels on July 22, though senior diplomats warn that delays and small disputes — including resistance to restoring pre-Brexit tuition rates for EU students — are quietly draining the process of momentum. The large question of return, Barnier believes, will answer itself as the world grows more unstable. No country, he is certain, can stand alone for long.
Michel Barnier sat down with The Guardian a week before the tenth anniversary of the Brexit referendum, and what he had to say will matter to anyone wondering whether Britain could ever go back. The former chief negotiator for the European Union during four years of Brexit talks—a man who shaped the very terms Britain left under—believes the UK could rejoin the bloc while keeping the pound and staying out of the Schengen passport-free travel zone. He sees no legal obstacle to it.
This directly contradicts warnings from other European voices, including Poland's foreign minister, who have suggested Britain would face a harsher deal on re-entry. Barnier's position carries weight. He was France's prime minister in 2024 and remains an influential figure in Brussels. When he says something is "perfectly possible," people listen. His reasoning is straightforward: precedent already exists. Five of the thirteen countries that joined the EU since 2004 have not adopted the euro. Ireland holds an official exemption from Schengen. If Denmark can opt out of the single currency, why not Britain? The treaties, he notes, do not mandate a specific timeline for euro adoption. Other member states have negotiated their way around these requirements. Britain could too.
The political implications are immediate. Recent polling by YouGov shows that 55 percent of Britons support rejoining the EU—but only if the country can keep its old special terms. That number collapses to 35 percent if Britain would have to rejoin without those opt-outs, with 43 percent opposed. The difference between a viable political proposition and a non-starter is whether the pound stays in British pockets and whether British citizens need a passport to cross into France. Barnier understands this. He knows the polling. He also knows that support for rejoining grows stronger when the possibility of retaining those exemptions is on the table.
On the question of whether Britain could also recover the budget rebate Margaret Thatcher secured decades ago—a reduction in the UK's financial contributions to the EU—Barnier was more cautious. He declined to commit, instead invoking the principle of European solidarity: wealthier nations help poorer ones. That negotiation, he suggested, would depend on what Britain actually asks for when and if it decides to rejoin. He offered himself as a resource for "free advice" when that moment comes.
Barnier made clear his conviction that Britain made the wrong choice in 2016. The evidence, he said, accumulates daily. He pointed to sluggish economic growth and the toxic immigration debate now consuming British politics. "It would not be fair to say that the problems of the UK today are due to Brexit," he said, "but what I am sure of is that all these problems are more difficult because of Brexit." He also warned that the government's hopes for a closer economic relationship with Europe outside the EU remain blocked by its refusal to accept free movement of people. That red line, drawn by Prime Minister Keir Starmer, makes deeper trade arrangements impossible. Barnier will not budge on this point. To do so, he argued, would hand ammunition to far-right movements across Europe—in France especially, where Emmanuel Macron's term ends next spring and the prospect of a far-right president looms.
When asked whether he believed Britain would rejoin within his lifetime, Barnier—seventy-five years old—offered a measured response. He does not know how long he will live. But he is confident that as the world grows more dangerous, more fragile, and more unstable, the British people will come to see that no country can stand alone. France cannot. Germany cannot. Britain cannot. Every day, he believes, this will become clearer.
Barnier also proposed that Britain, along with Ukraine and Norway, should join a new European council for defence and security—a body independent of existing EU institutions where members would cooperate on military initiatives, artificial intelligence, and other disruptive technologies. The proposal reflects his view that Britain's security and prosperity are bound up with Europe's, whether or not it formally rejoins the bloc. The reset talks between the UK and EU are scheduled to resume in Brussels on July 22, after several delays. Senior EU diplomats have warned that momentum is being lost. The UK has resisted calls to restore lower pre-Brexit tuition fees for EU students as part of a youth exchange deal. These are the small frictions that will shape whether the larger question—whether Britain goes back—ever becomes real.
Notable Quotes
I am speaking about Schengen, I am speaking about the single currency: there are other member states who are not in them. It is perfectly possible to have opt-outs in these fields.— Michel Barnier
All these problems are more difficult because of Brexit, even if they are not caused by it.— Michel Barnier, paraphrased
The Hearth Conversation Another angle on the story
When Barnier says the pound could stay, is he speaking as someone with real power to make that happen, or is he offering hope?
He's offering something between the two. He negotiated the original Brexit deal, so he knows how these things actually work. But he's also a politician now, thinking about France's future. What he's really saying is: the legal obstacles don't exist. The political ones are a different question.
The polling is striking—55 percent support rejoin if they keep the pound, but only 35 percent without it. That's not a small gap.
It's the difference between "we get our old life back" and "we have to start over from scratch." People aren't voting on principle. They're voting on whether they feel they're winning or losing.
He seems quite certain Britain will rejoin eventually. Is that realistic?
He's seventy-five and he's betting on generational change. The people who voted Leave in 2016 aren't getting younger. The economic case against Brexit gets harder to ignore every quarter. But "eventually" could mean decades.
What about the budget rebate—the Thatcher deal? Why wouldn't Britain get that back?
Because the EU's whole logic has shifted. It's not about individual countries negotiating better terms anymore. It's about solidarity. A richer Britain coming back would be expected to contribute more, not less. That's a harder sell politically.
He mentions free movement as the real sticking point. Why is that non-negotiable?
Because if Britain gets a trade deal without accepting free movement, every far-right party in Europe says, "Why can't we have that too?" It unravels the whole system. Barnier won't risk that, especially with France potentially electing a far-right president next year.
So what's actually being negotiated right now in these reset talks?
Small things. Student fees. Trade friction. Trying to make the current relationship work better without reopening the fundamental question. But everyone knows the fundamental question is still there, waiting.