Australia has simply settled into a new equilibrium of around 300,000 migrants yearly
Australia's migration numbers are falling, but the descent has not quieted the argument about where they should land. A nation still catching up to its own pre-pandemic demographic projections finds itself caught between the economic logic of growth-hungry states and the social pressures of housing scarcity and strained infrastructure. The figures released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics are less a resolution than a waypoint — a moment in which competing visions of national sustainability are briefly made visible before the debate moves on.
- Net overseas migration has nearly halved from its 2023 peak of 556,000, yet at 301,000 it remains a quarter above historical norms — enough to keep the political temperature high.
- Queensland and Western Australia are pulling in overseas workers at rates far exceeding pre-pandemic levels, driven by booming economies that domestic labor pools cannot satisfy alone.
- The government is leaning hard on the downward trend as proof its approach is working, with budget forecasts projecting migration to fall to 225,000 by 2027-28.
- The Coalition rejects the trajectory as too slow, pointing to housing unaffordability, rising rents, and overstretched public services as evidence that current levels remain unsustainable.
- Economists suggest Australia may have simply settled into a new structural equilibrium around 300,000 — not a crisis, but a permanent upward shift that neither side of politics has fully reckoned with.
Australia's net overseas migration fell to 301,000 last year — the lowest since mid-2022 — yet the number sits stubbornly above pre-pandemic baselines and above the government's own forecasts, landing in a political environment already inflamed by voices calling for cultural retrenchment.
The story behind the figure is one of dramatic swings. When pandemic-era borders reopened, migration surged to 556,000 annually by late 2023, alarming policymakers and the public alike. Since then, the government has pointed to each quarterly decline as vindication, with Treasurer Jim Chalmers declaring the facts clearly show migration falling under Labor. The May budget projected further drops — down to 225,000 by 2027-28.
Economists read the data differently. KPMG's Terry Rawnsley argues Australia has settled into a new equilibrium roughly 50,000 people per year above historical norms. That elevation is not uniform: Queensland has drawn 75 percent more overseas workers than before the pandemic, and Western Australia a staggering 250 percent more, both states running hot economies that domestic labor cannot fully supply. New South Wales and Victoria, by contrast, have returned to pre-pandemic patterns.
The broader demographic picture complicates the narrative further. Despite years of elevated migration, Australia's population in mid-2025 still fell around 350,000 short of what Treasury had projected before the pandemic reshaped everything.
None of this has cooled the political argument. The Coalition's shadow immigration minister called 301,000 far too high, citing housing pressure, soaring rents, and infrastructure strain. The government emphasizes the downward slope; the opposition insists the slope has not been steep enough. Between those two positions, the human arithmetic of a changing nation quietly accumulates.
Australia's net overseas migration fell to 301,000 people last year, marking the lowest annual intake since the middle of 2022. Yet even as the number declines, it sits stubbornly above where it was before the pandemic struck, and well above what economists consider a sustainable baseline. The Australian Bureau of Statistics released the figures into a political environment already heated by immigration debate, with Pauline Hanson recently calling for Australian society to become "monocultural."
The trajectory tells a story of sharp swings and slow correction. When Covid lockdowns ended, migration surged back with remarkable speed. By late 2023, net overseas migration had climbed to 556,000 annually—a peak that alarmed policymakers and the public alike. Since then, the government has watched the numbers inch downward with visible relief, using each quarterly decline as evidence that Labor's approach is working. Treasurer Jim Chalmers seized on the latest figures to declare that "the facts clearly show that net overseas migration is coming down under Labor." The May budget had projected even steeper drops ahead: 295,000 this financial year, 245,000 next, and 225,000 by 2027-28.
But economists see something different in the data. Terry Rawnsley, a senior economist at KPMG, argues that Australia has simply settled into a new equilibrium. The nation, he suggests, is now operating at around 300,000 net migrants per year—roughly 25 percent, or 50,000 people, above historical pre-pandemic levels. That persistent elevation is not random. It reflects the economic pull of two states in particular. Queensland has drawn in 75 percent more overseas workers than it did before the pandemic. Western Australia's increase is even more dramatic: a 250 percent jump. Both states are experiencing strong economic growth and have turned to international labor to fill jobs their own populations cannot supply. Meanwhile, New South Wales and Victoria have returned to their pre-pandemic migration patterns, suggesting the surge is concentrated in regions with the most robust job markets.
The broader population picture adds another layer of complexity. Despite years of elevated migration, Australia's population in mid-2025 still fell about 350,000 short of what the Treasury had predicted back in December 2019, before anyone knew what a pandemic was. The global health crisis and its aftermath reshaped demographic expectations in ways that linger.
Yet the political argument shows no sign of cooling. The Coalition's shadow immigration minister, Jonathon Duniam, dismissed the latest figures as inadequate. An annual intake of 301,000 remains "far too high," he said, particularly when Australians are struggling to find affordable housing, rents are under severe pressure, and public services are straining to keep pace with population growth. The complaint reflects a broader anxiety: that immigration, however economically rational in Queensland and Western Australia, is exacerbating housing shortages and infrastructure gaps that affect the entire country. The government emphasizes the downward slope of the curve. The opposition insists the curve has not fallen far enough.
Notable Quotes
The facts clearly show that net overseas migration is coming down under Labor— Treasurer Jim Chalmers
An annual net overseas migration of 301,000 remains far too high, particularly when Australians are struggling to find homes and rents are under extreme pressure— Jonathon Duniam, shadow immigration minister
The Hearth Conversation Another angle on the story
Why does it matter that migration is coming down if it's still above pre-pandemic levels?
Because the direction signals whether the government has control of the problem. If it's rising, they've lost the plot. If it's falling, they can claim they're steering the ship.
But 301,000 is still a lot of people arriving every year. How does that connect to the housing crisis?
It doesn't directly—housing is about supply and zoning and investment. But politically, when people can't afford rent, they look for someone to blame. Migrants become a visible target, even if the real problem is builders aren't building enough homes.
So Queensland and Western Australia are actually absorbing most of these people?
Exactly. Their economies are booming and they need workers. But the political anger is loudest in Sydney and Melbourne, where migration has actually flatlined. The mismatch between where people arrive and where people are angry creates this weird disconnect.
Is 300,000 a year actually sustainable?
That depends on what you mean by sustainable. Economically, yes—those states are growing and need the labor. Socially and politically, that's the real question. And right now, the answer seems to be no.