Iran signals Hormuz open as Trump eyes imminent nuclear deal

The Strait of Hormuz, one of the world's most critical shipping channels, is open again. Iran's Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi announced on April 17 that commercial vessels could transit the waterway during a newly agreed 10-day ceasefire between Israeli forces and Hezbollah in Lebanon. The announcement arrived like a pressure valve releasing after months of escalating tension. Since late February, when the US and Israel launched attacks on Iran, the strait had been effectively closed to most traffic—a chokepoint through which roughly one-fifth of the world's oil and liquefied natural gas normally flows. The blockade had threatened what economists warned could be the worst oil shock in modern history. Within hours of Araqchi's statement, oil prices fell about 9 percent, a tangible signal that markets believed the worst might be passing.

Yet the opening of the strait masks deeper uncertainties. President Trump told reporters he believed a nuclear deal with Iran would come "soon," though he acknowledged the timing remained unclear. He had suggested talks could happen as soon as that weekend in Islamabad, Pakistan, where negotiations were expected to take place. But by afternoon on April 17, assembling officials in the Pakistani capital seemed increasingly unlikely. A Pakistani mediator involved in backdoor diplomacy offered a more measured assessment: both sides were agreeing in principle on major points, he said, and an upcoming meeting could produce a memorandum of understanding, with a comprehensive deal potentially signed within 60 days. The qualifier mattered. Iranian sources told Reuters that significant gaps still needed resolving before even a preliminary agreement could be reached.

The nuclear question sits at the heart of the impasse. The US had proposed a 20-year suspension of all Iranian nuclear activity. Iran countered with a three- to five-year halt. Washington demanded that highly enriched uranium be removed from Iranian territory. Tehran was considering shipping part of its stockpile out of the country, according to two Iranian sources, suggesting room for compromise. But when Trump claimed Iran had agreed to "give us back the nuclear dust," Iran's state media outlet Mizan flatly disputed him, stating no such negotiation had ever occurred. The disagreement was telling—both sides remained far enough apart that even basic facts about what had been discussed were contested.

The broader conflict that made these negotiations necessary had already exacted a staggering human cost. The fighting in Lebanon alone, reignited on March 2 when Hezbollah opened fire on northern Israel in support of Tehran, had killed approximately 2,000 people according to Lebanese authorities. The Israeli offensive that followed had displaced tens of thousands. When the ceasefire took effect at midnight on April 16, celebratory gunfire erupted across Beirut. But the relief was fragile. On April 17, people began returning to their homes to assess the damage. In the southern city of Nabatieh, largely destroyed by months of bombardment, some residents said they would stay despite everything. Others found nothing worth returning to. Fadel Badreddine, who came back with his young son and wife, looked at the wreckage and decided to leave again. "There's destruction and it's unliveable," he said. "May God grant us relief and end this whole thing permanently."

The economic stakes extended far beyond the Middle East. The International Monetary Fund had lowered its global growth forecasts that week and warned the world economy risked tipping into recession if the conflict dragged on. Stock markets had rallied on optimism that a deal was near, with global indices holding close to record highs on April 17. Oil prices, which had spiked during the worst of the crisis, were now pinned below $100 a barrel. In Islamabad, troops were visible along routes leading into the capital on April 17, but roads remained open and the government had not issued the shutdown orders that had preceded the previous round of talks. The machinery of diplomacy was warming up, but cautiously. Trump suggested he might travel to Islamabad himself if an agreement was signed there. What remained to be seen was whether the gaps that still separated the two sides could be closed, and whether the fragile ceasefire in Lebanon would hold long enough for negotiators to finish their work.