Iran Opens Hormuz Strait as Trump Signals Imminent Nuclear Deal

The Strait of Hormuz, one of the world's most critical shipping channels, is open again. Iran's Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi announced Friday that commercial vessels would have passage through the waterway for the duration of a newly brokered 10-day ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah—a development that sent oil prices tumbling 11 percent and stock markets climbing to fresh highs. The strait, through which roughly one-fifth of the world's oil and liquefied natural gas normally flows, had been effectively closed since late February when conflict between the US-backed Israeli forces and Iran-backed Hezbollah erupted, threatening what analysts warned could be the worst oil shock in modern history.

The reopening came as President Trump signaled that a comprehensive nuclear agreement with Iran was within reach. Speaking on Truth Social, Trump declared the strait "fully open and ready for passage," though he immediately qualified the announcement by noting that a separate US military blockade on ships bound for Iranian ports would remain in place until a deal was finalized. Trump suggested the agreement could happen "very quickly," claiming most negotiating points had already been settled. Yet the timeline remained murky. Talks were supposed to resume as soon as that weekend in Islamabad, Pakistan, but by Friday afternoon, logistics made that increasingly unlikely.

Behind the scenes, Pakistani mediators reported genuine progress. A source involved in the negotiations told Reuters that both sides were "agreeing in principle" on key terms, with a memorandum of understanding potentially ready for signature, followed by a full accord within 60 days. Iranian officials confirmed that billions of dollars in frozen assets were now part of the negotiation framework. The central sticking point had long been Iran's nuclear program. The US had proposed a 20-year suspension of all Iranian nuclear activity; Tehran countered with a three-to-five-year halt. Signs of compromise emerged around the highly enriched uranium stockpile, with Iranian sources suggesting they might ship part of it out of the country—though Iran's state media immediately disputed Trump's claim that the US would obtain all of Iran's "nuclear dust," insisting no such agreement existed.

Iranian clerics struck a defiant note even as diplomacy advanced. In Friday prayers across the country, religious leaders rejected the notion of negotiating "while being humiliated" and dismissed the terms Washington had proposed. This rhetorical hardness underscored the fragility of the moment: both sides were moving toward a deal, but significant gaps remained, and domestic political pressures in Tehran could yet derail progress.

The market reaction was swift but cautious. Global stock indices surged on the de-escalation signal, and oil futures fell sharply as traders priced in the possibility of restored supply. Yet major shipping companies moved more deliberately. Hapag-Lloyd, the German container giant, announced it would hold off on transiting the strait while it assessed safety conditions. The Norwegian Shipowners' Association flagged unresolved questions: the possible presence of sea mines, the exact boundaries of the designated safe lanes Iran had established, and whether normal traffic—roughly 130 ships a day before the war—could truly resume. The International Monetary Fund had warned just days earlier that prolonged closure of the strait risked tipping the global economy into recession.

The Lebanon ceasefire, which triggered Iran's announcement, appeared to be largely holding on Friday, though Lebanese military officials reported scattered Israeli violations. The fighting in Lebanon had killed more than 2,000 people since Hezbollah opened fire on northern Israel in early March in support of Tehran. Israel's military offered no immediate comment on the alleged breaches.

What emerged by Friday evening was a picture of cautious momentum. Trump's confidence in an imminent deal contrasted with Iranian officials' insistence that serious work remained. Shipping companies wanted proof before committing vessels to the strait. Markets had priced in optimism, but the actual reopening of normal commerce would depend on whether negotiators in Islamabad could bridge the remaining distance—and whether the political forces on both sides would allow them to.