Displacement fell 4% to 117.8M in 2025, marking first decline in 10 years, but driven by forced returns rather than conflict resolution. Afghanistan, Sudan, Syria saw massive returns despite ongoing instability; EU hardening stance on Afghan refugees amid Taliban governance concerns.
EL PAÍS
· Jun 11, 2026
· security
· 6 min read
High
Sourcing: Verified
Displaced persons fall for first time in decade, but millions return to war-torn nations
117.8 million people forcibly displaced; 2.9M Afghans, 651.5K Sudanese refugees, 3.3M Syrians returned to unstable countries; 38% of displaced are children; millions face coerced returns without genuine safety improvements.
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War & Conflict
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Bias & Framing
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Geopolitical Impact
🌎
UN reports first decade decline in forced displacement, but reflects coerced returns to unstable war zones rather than improved safety, signaling host-country pressure and humanitarian crisis deepening.
Escalation Risk
high
Confidence
HIGH
Sudan
Afghanistan
Syria
Venezuela
Ukraine
Middle East
Sub-Saharan Africa
Central Asia
Wealthy host nations shifting burden by pressuring refugees to return to conflict zones, reducing international protection obligations. Weakening of UN refugee system and multilateral humanitarian frameworks. Regional powers (Turkey, Jordan, Lebanon) reducing hosting capacity, shifting geopolitical leverage toward origin states despite instability.
Similar to post-WWII repatriation pressures and 1990s Balkans forced returns, where premature repatriation to unsafe zones led to renewed displacement cycles and humanitarian deterioration.
Economic Lens
📈
Forced displacement declined 4% to 117.8M in 2025, marking first decade drop, but reflects coerced returns to unstable war zones rather than improved safety, with host countries cutting aid and pressuring vulnerable populations.
Market Signal
bearish
Confidence
HIGH
humanitarian aid and NGO services
international development
labor markets in host countries
real estate and housing in conflict regions
healthcare and social services
remittance flows
Households in host countries may see reduced competition for low-skilled jobs and eased pressure on public services, but returnees face severe hardship with inadequate infrastructure, healthcare, and economic opportunities in war-torn regions, reducing consumer spending and economic activity there.
Governments may face pressure to reduce refugee assistance budgets, but international bodies likely to advocate for stronger protection standards and funding for returnee support. Risk of increased migration crises if conditions deteriorate further in Syria, Sudan, Afghanistan, and Venezuela.