ASEAN-China Code of Conduct talks enter critical phase as South China Sea tensions mount

For more than twenty years, ASEAN and China have been trying to write a single document that might prevent the next armed clash in the South China Sea. They are still writing it. The talks have entered what negotiators call the third reading, and they are finally confronting the questions that have stalled progress since the mid-1990s: whether the agreement will actually be binding, what waters it covers, and how its terms will be defined. The deadline is July 2026. Meanwhile, the waters themselves are growing more dangerous.

The history of this dispute is written in blood. In 1988, Chinese and Vietnamese forces fought over Johnson South Reef in the Spratly Islands. More than sixty Vietnamese sailors died in that encounter. Seven years later, China occupied Mischief Reef, which the Philippines claimed. In 1996, Chinese naval vessels engaged Philippine gunboats in a battle that lasted ninety minutes. These were not accidents or misunderstandings. They were armed conflicts over territory that multiple nations believed belonged to them.

ASEAN responded by pushing for a regional framework—something that would establish rules of the road, encourage restraint, and keep disputes from becoming wars. In November 2002, ASEAN and China signed the Declaration on the Conduct of Parties in the South China Sea. It was not legally binding. It was a statement of intent. But it mattered because both sides formally committed to working toward something more detailed and more enforceable: a Code of Conduct.

What followed was two decades of slow movement. Consultations continued. Positions were clarified. But the talks kept stalling. Regional tensions would flare. National interests would diverge. Disagreements over how binding the agreement should be would resurface. Progress was measured in inches.

Then in 2018, something shifted. ASEAN and China agreed on a Single Draft Negotiating Text—a document that brought together proposals from all parties. The first reading was completed in 2019. The second reading came in 2023. These rounds helped clarify what each side wanted and where the gaps were. But the major issues remained unresolved. In July 2023, both sides adopted guidelines meant to accelerate the process and set a target: finalize the Code of Conduct by July 2026. That gave them three years.

Now, in 2025, negotiators are in the third reading, and they are finally grappling with what the agreement actually means. Will it be legally binding or merely advisory? Will it cover the entire South China Sea or only parts of it? How will it relate to the 2002 Declaration that came before it? What do key terms like "incident" or "restraint" actually mean when written into law? These are not abstract questions. They determine whether the agreement has teeth.

The urgency is real. Encounters between Philippine and Chinese vessels are happening more frequently. Fishing communities that depend on these waters are caught between overlapping claims and rising tensions. The disputes remain visible, immediate, and volatile. A finished Code of Conduct would not resolve the territorial claims themselves—that is a separate and far more difficult problem. But it could establish procedures for managing confrontations, preventing accidents from becoming incidents, and incidents from becoming conflicts. It could create space for de-escalation.

What remains unclear is whether the negotiators can agree on what that agreement should actually say, and whether they can do it before the July 2026 deadline. The third reading is where the hardest questions get answered. It is also where negotiations often break down.