Zelenskyy bets on Trump's unpredictability to end Ukraine war

Volodymyr Zelenskyy is gambling on a quality he would normally fear in a world leader: unpredictability. With Donald Trump set to take office on January 20, the Ukrainian president has begun a careful diplomatic courtship, hoping that the incoming American president's erratic nature might somehow work in Ukraine's favor against Russia. In a television interview aired Thursday, Zelenskyy expressed faith that Trump's volatility could be turned toward Moscow. "He's very strong and unpredictable, and I would really like to see President Trump's unpredictability apply to Russia," Zelenskyy said. "I believe he really wants to end the war."

This is a calculated bet born of necessity. Trump has promised to end the nearly three-year conflict within 24 hours of taking power—a boast that has been met with deep skepticism in Kyiv. Ukrainian officials fear that any rapid settlement brokered by Trump will come at their expense, forcing them to surrender territory they have fought to hold. Yet Zelenskyy has spent the weeks since November's election building bridges with Trump and his team, acutely aware that the Republican could dramatically reduce or eliminate the military aid that has kept Ukraine's war effort alive. The Ukrainian leader is trying to position himself as someone Trump might want to help, suggesting the American president has the power to be decisive in the conflict. "He is capable of stopping Putin or, to put it more fairly, help us stop Putin," Zelenskyy said. "He is able to do this."

Ukraine's vision of a just peace extends well beyond a ceasefire. Zelenskyy has stated that any settlement must include solid security guarantees from Western allies, membership in the European Union, and an invitation to join NATO—conditions that Moscow has made clear it will never accept. Russia views NATO expansion as an existential threat and has fought this war partly to prevent Ukraine from joining the alliance. This fundamental incompatibility between Ukrainian and Russian demands sits at the heart of the conflict, and it is unclear how Trump's unpredictability, however potent, could bridge such a gap.

On the ground, the war continues with no sign of slowing. Ukrainian forces carried out a high-precision strike Thursday on a Russian command post in Maryino, in the Kursk region, where Ukrainian troops have maintained a foothold for five months following a major cross-border incursion. The Ukrainian military said the strike disrupted Russia's ability to conduct attacks on civilians. Russia's military claimed it had shot down four Ukrainian missiles in the region, and the regional governor reported that the strikes had damaged apartment buildings in a nearby village. The human toll of the conflict remains visible in such exchanges—civilian infrastructure damaged, soldiers and civilians killed or displaced.

Problems are also emerging within Ukraine's own military structure. Investigators have opened a criminal probe into desertion and abuse of power after hundreds of soldiers fled from the 155th Mechanised Brigade, a unit that had been partly trained by France. The brigade, nicknamed "Anne of Kyiv," was supposed to field 4,500 soldiers, with France training roughly half and providing equipment. But the unit has been plagued by management failures and organizational chaos. The desertion suggests that even as Ukraine seeks to negotiate with Trump, it faces internal fractures in its ability to sustain the war effort.

Meanwhile, Europe is adjusting to a new energy reality. Russian gas transit through Ukraine stopped Wednesday after Kyiv refused to renew a decades-long supply agreement that had enriched both countries. Although Russian gas now accounts for less than 10 percent of the European Union's total gas imports—down from over 40 percent before the 2022 invasion—some eastern European nations remain heavily dependent on Russian energy. The EU said Thursday that gas supplies across the bloc remain stable, with member states drawing on winter storage and alternative suppliers. Poland, which has just taken over the EU's rotating presidency, emphasized that the situation is manageable. Still, the severing of the gas pipeline marks another rupture in the economic ties that once bound Russia and Europe together, and it underscores how thoroughly this war has reshaped the continent's geopolitical and energy landscape.