A narrow waterway in the Middle East has become the fulcrum upon which global food security now balances. Iran's effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz — through which a third of the world's fertiliser passes — has set in motion a slow-moving crisis that will not announce itself until planting seasons have passed and harvests have already shrunk. A senior WTO official, speaking from Yaounde, has placed this disruption at the centre of the world's most urgent economic concerns, warning that the poorest nations will bear the weight of a conflict they did not choose.
WTO warns Middle East war threatens global food security via fertilizer disruption
Potential widespread food insecurity and hunger impacts, particularly in net food-importing countries in West and North Africa.
If fertiliser from the Gulf does not circulate, we will feel a direct impact
Mark
So the immediate crisis is that Iran has blocked the strait, but Paugam says there's no shortage yet. How much time do we actually have?
Mimi
He's saying if the blockade lasts three months, the impact becomes significant. Planting seasons are starting now for next year's crops. So we're in a window of weeks, maybe a couple of months, before farmers who can't get fertilizer start making decisions that affect what gets planted.
Luke
But we should be clear: there's no shortage today. Paugam is warning about a scenario. The blockade has to hold, and it has to hold through planting season. If it clears in two weeks, this becomes a different story.
Mark
Right. And the countries most at risk—India, Thailand, Brazil—they're major exporters. So this isn't just about their own food security.
Mimi
Exactly. When those countries can't get urea from the Gulf, they have less to export. That hits the countries that import from them—particularly in West and North Africa, where people are already vulnerable.
Luke
Though we should note: Paugam is identifying the risk, not saying it's inevitable. The question is whether Iran maintains this blockade, whether alternative supply routes open, whether prices spike enough to trigger hoarding. All of that is still in motion.
Mark
He mentioned the Covid parallel—countries stockpiling during the pandemic made things worse. Is there evidence that's happening now?
Mimi
Not yet. Paugam is warning it could happen. That's the compounding risk: if countries get scared, they start buying up fertilizer, which makes it scarcer for everyone else.
Luke
So we have a direct threat—the blockade itself—and then a behavioral threat, which is how countries respond to fear. The second one is harder to predict and harder to control.
Mark
And all of this threatens the UN's hunger elimination goal by 2030.
Mimi
Yes. The world was back on track after Covid. This war could knock it off track again.
El Pulso
- Iran's closure of the Strait of Hormuz has severed the primary artery for Gulf-produced fertiliser, cutting off the nitrogen-based inputs that India, Thailand, Brazil, and others depend on to feed the world.
- The crisis is deceptively quiet for now — warehouses still hold stock — but a blockade of even three months would miss critical planting windows, shrinking next year's harvests before most people notice anything is wrong.
- WTO Deputy Director-General Jean-Marie Paugam has named fertiliser 'the number one issue of concern today,' warning that scarcity and price spikes will strike in sequence, compounding each other's damage.
- West and North Africa face the sharpest exposure — net food-importing regions where populations already live at the edge of food insecurity, and where a price shock translates directly into hunger.
- The spectre of hoarding looms: if countries begin stockpiling fertiliser and food as they did during Covid-19, global supplies will tighten further and the most vulnerable nations will be priced out entirely.
- The UN's 2030 goal to eliminate hunger, already set back by the pandemic, now faces another potential derailment — and the window to prevent it depends entirely on whether the strait reopens in time.
A narrow waterway in the Middle East has become the fulcrum upon which global food security now balances. Iran's effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz — through which a third of the world's fertiliser passes — has set in motion a slow-moving crisis that will not announce itself until planting seasons have passed and harvests have already shrunk. A senior WTO official, speaking from Yaounde, has placed this disruption at the centre of the world's most urgent economic concerns, warning that the poorest nations will bear the weight of a conflict they did not choose.
A senior World Trade Organization official is warning that the war in the Middle East is quietly threatening something far beyond the region itself: the global supply of fertiliser, and with it, the world's ability to feed itself.
The Strait of Hormuz, a narrow passage through which roughly a third of the world's fertiliser shipments travel, has been effectively closed by Iran. The Gulf region produces fertiliser at scale because of its abundant natural gas, and that output flows outward to the farms that sustain global food production. WTO Deputy Director-General Jean-Marie Paugam, speaking in Yaounde, laid out the danger plainly: planting seasons are beginning now for crops harvested next year. If fertiliser cannot reach farmers in time, yields will fall. When yields fall, prices rise — and the damage compounds across the following year.
The countries most exposed include some of the world's largest food exporters. India, Thailand, and Brazil all rely on Gulf-produced urea to sustain their agricultural output. But net food-importing nations face an even grimmer reality. Paugam singled out West Africa and North Africa as regions that would be left in 'a very bad position' — places where food price shocks translate directly into hunger for people already living close to the edge.
Paugam also raised the risk of hoarding. As nations did during the Covid-19 pandemic, governments may respond to uncertainty by stockpiling fertiliser and food, tightening global supplies further and driving prices higher still. The poorest countries, with the least leverage, would fall furthest behind.
No shortage exists yet. Warehouses still hold stock. But the window for preventing a crisis is closing, and it hinges entirely on whether the Strait of Hormuz reopens before the planting moment passes. The UN's goal of eliminating hunger by 2030 — already set back by the pandemic — now faces the possibility of another lost decade.
A senior World Trade Organization official is sounding an alarm about a threat that moves quietly through global supply chains: the war in the Middle East is strangling the world's fertilizer supply, and the consequences will ripple outward in two destructive waves—first scarcity, then price spikes that will hit the poorest countries hardest.
Iran has effectively closed the Strait of Hormuz, the narrow waterway that serves as the artery for roughly a third of the world's fertilizer shipments. The blockade cuts off not just oil and gas, but the nutrients that farmers depend on to grow food. The disruption is recent enough that warehouses still hold stock, but the math is unforgiving: if the chokepoint remains sealed for even three months, the impact will be severe. Jean-Marie Paugam, the WTO's Deputy Director-General, laid out the timeline in an interview in Yaounde. Planting seasons are beginning now for crops that will be harvested next year. If fertilizer from the Gulf—where abundant natural gas makes the region a global manufacturing hub—cannot reach farmers in time, yields will shrink. When yields shrink, prices rise. And when prices rise the following year, the damage compounds.
The vulnerability is concentrated among the world's major food exporters. India, Thailand, and Brazil all depend on urea, a nitrogen-based fertilizer produced in the Gulf, to sustain their agricultural output. These are countries the world relies on to feed itself. But they are also exposed. Net food-importing nations face an even grimmer calculus. Paugam identified West Africa and North Africa as regions that would be in "a very bad position"—places where people already live close to the edge of food insecurity, where a price shock can mean the difference between eating and going hungry.
The WTO official emphasized that fertilizer is "the number one issue of concern today." The problem is not merely one of supply; it is the interaction between scarcity and cost. No fertilizer means smaller harvests. Higher prices mean smaller harvests cost more to produce, and food becomes less affordable for the people who need it most. Paugam warned that countries may respond to the crisis by hoarding—stockpiling fertilizer and food to protect themselves, as many nations did during the Covid-19 pandemic. When countries hoard, global supplies tighten further, prices climb higher, and the poorest nations fall further behind.
The stakes extend beyond this year's harvest. The United Nations set a goal in 2015 to eliminate hunger by 2030. After Covid-19 set that progress back, the world had begun moving forward again. But Paugam cautioned that the Middle East war now threatens to derail that trajectory once more. The conflict is only weeks old. There is no fertilizer shortage yet. But the window for preventing one is closing, and it depends entirely on whether the Strait of Hormuz reopens.
Citas Notables
Fertilisers are the number one issue of concern today. If there is no more fertiliser, there is an impact on quantities but also on prices. The effect compounds the following year: harvests shrink and prices rise.— Jean-Marie Paugam, WTO Deputy Director-General
If the Strait of Hormuz is blocked for three months, the impact will be significant.— Jean-Marie Paugam, WTO Deputy Director-General
Quieres la nota completa?
Lee el original en Al-Monitor ↗
War & Conflict