The world is not yet meaningfully safer
As Ebola claims lives in the Democratic Republic of Congo and hantavirus spreads aboard a cruise ship, the Global Preparedness Monitoring Board has delivered a sobering verdict: humanity is not growing safer from infectious disease, but more vulnerable. The forces at work — climate disruption, armed conflict, and the fracturing of international cooperation — are structural, not accidental. What the world possesses in scientific ingenuity, it is squandering in political will and equitable action, leaving the gap between emerging pathogens and meaningful response wider than it was before.
- An Ebola outbreak in the DRC has killed at least 87 people, with early diagnostic tests targeting the wrong viral strain — a costly error that allowed the virus to cross borders before containment could begin.
- Billions withdrawn from the WHO and dismantled surveillance programs have gutted the early-warning systems that exist precisely to catch outbreaks before they become crises.
- Despite breakthroughs in mRNA vaccine technology, mpox vaccines took nearly two years to reach affected African nations — a slower rollout than even Covid-19 — exposing a deep failure of equity rather than innovation.
- Countries arrived at the World Health Assembly in Geneva without a finalized pandemic treaty, deadlocked over how to balance pathogen data-sharing with guaranteed access to medical countermeasures.
- The GPMB is urging world leaders to establish permanent independent monitoring mechanisms, conclude the stalled treaty, and secure sustained preparedness financing before the next major outbreak renders the debate moot.
Health officials in the Democratic Republic of Congo and Uganda are racing to contain an Ebola outbreak that has already killed at least 87 people, while a separate hantavirus crisis unfolds elsewhere. The convergence is not coincidence. The Global Preparedness Monitoring Board — convened by the World Bank and WHO in the wake of West Africa's devastating Ebola epidemic — has concluded that the world is becoming less equipped to handle infectious disease outbreaks, not more.
The drivers are structural: climate change expanding the range of pathogens, armed conflict dismantling health systems, and geopolitical fragmentation eroding the collective action that effective responses require. In the current DRC outbreak, early tests were calibrated for the wrong viral strain, producing false negatives that cost weeks of response time. By the time the correct alarm was raised, the virus had already traveled major transport corridors and crossed international borders.
Experts point directly to funding cuts as the mechanism of failure. When surveillance programs are dismantled and WHO budgets slashed, the systems designed to catch viruses early are hollowed out. The consequences are not theoretical — they accumulate as deaths. Meanwhile, vaccine technology has advanced rapidly, yet the world is moving backward on the measures that actually save lives: getting vaccines, tests, and treatments to the people who need them. Mpox vaccines took nearly two years to reach affected African countries, slower even than the 17-month lag for Covid-19.
The damage reaches beyond disease itself. Politicized responses and attacks on scientific institutions have eroded public trust and left societies more brittle for the next emergency. GPMB co-chair Kolinda Grabar-Kitarović observed that the world does not lack solutions — it lacks the trust and equity required to deploy them.
Countries failed to finalize a pandemic treaty before this week's World Health Assembly in Geneva, unable to resolve disputes over pathogen data-sharing and access to medical countermeasures. The board is calling for permanent independent monitoring mechanisms, conclusion of the stalled treaty, and sustained preparedness financing. The warning from co-chair Joy Phumaphi is unambiguous: if cooperation continues to fracture, every country will be more exposed when the next pandemic arrives. The question is no longer whether it will come, but whether the world will be ready.
Health officials in the Democratic Republic of the Congo and Uganda are racing to contain an Ebola outbreak that has already claimed at least 87 lives, even as a separate hantavirus crisis unfolds on a cruise ship elsewhere in the world. The timing is not coincidental. A report released Monday by the Global Preparedness Monitoring Board—a group of experts convened by the World Bank and the WHO in 2018, in the aftermath of West Africa's devastating Ebola epidemic—carries a stark message: the planet is growing less equipped to handle infectious disease outbreaks, not more. As these crises multiply, they are becoming deadlier. The world, the board concluded, is not yet meaningfully safer.
The forces driving this vulnerability are structural and interconnected. Climate change is creating conditions where pathogens thrive and spread. Armed conflict destabilizes health systems and displaces populations. Geopolitical fracturing and the pursuit of narrow commercial interests have corroded the collective action needed to mount coordinated responses. The result is a widening gap between the speed at which dangerous viruses emerge and the speed at which the world can detect and contain them. In the current Ebola outbreak, early diagnostic tests were looking for the wrong viral strain, producing false negatives that cost weeks of response time. By the time the alarm was properly raised, the virus had already traveled along major transport corridors and crossed international borders.
Matthew Kavanagh, director of the Georgetown University Center for Global Health Policy & Politics, traced this failure directly to budget cuts. When billions of dollars are withdrawn from the WHO and frontline surveillance programs are dismantled, he explained, the very systems designed to catch viruses early are gutted. The consequences are not abstract. They are measured in deaths. The world is, in his words, playing catch-up against a pathogen it should have contained before it spread.
Technology, paradoxically, has advanced. Novel vaccine platforms like mRNA have developed at unprecedented speed. Billions have been poured into pandemic preparedness infrastructure. Yet the world is moving backward on the measures that actually save lives in a crisis: ensuring that vaccines, tests, and treatments reach the people who need them. During recent mpox outbreaks, vaccines took nearly two years to reach affected African countries—slower even than the 17-month lag for Covid-19 vaccines. This is not a failure of innovation. It is a failure of equity and will.
The damage extends beyond the immediate toll of disease. Recent outbreaks have eroded public trust in government, corroded civil liberties, and strained democratic norms. Politicized responses and attacks on scientific institutions have left scars that outlast the crises themselves, leaving societies more brittle when the next emergency arrives. Kolinda Grabar-Kitarović, the GPMB's co-chair and former president of Croatia, put it plainly: the world does not lack solutions. What it lacks is the trust and equity required to deploy them.
Countries failed to finalize a pandemic agreement treaty before this week's World Health Assembly in Geneva, unable to resolve disagreements over how to guarantee access to medical countermeasures in exchange for sharing pathogen data. The GPMB is calling for political leaders to establish permanent, independent mechanisms to monitor pandemic risk, to conclude that stalled treaty, and to secure the financing needed for sustained preparedness. Joy Phumaphi, the board's other co-chair and a former health minister in Botswana, offered a warning that doubles as a plea: if trust and cooperation continue to fracture, every country will be more exposed when the next pandemic strikes. The question is no longer whether another crisis will come. It is whether the world will be ready.
Notable Quotes
When you pull billions out of the WHO and dismantle frontline USAID programmes, you gut the exact surveillance system meant to catch these viruses early. We are seeing the direct, deadly consequences of treating global health security as an optional expense.— Matthew Kavanagh, Georgetown University Center for Global Health Policy & Politics
The world does not lack solutions. But without trust and equity, those solutions will not reach the people who need them most.— Kolinda Grabar-Kitarović, GPMB co-chair and former president of Croatia
The Hearth Conversation Another angle on the story
Why does it matter that early tests were looking for the wrong strain of Ebola?
Because a virus doesn't wait for you to get the diagnosis right. Every day of false negatives is a day the virus spreads unchecked—across villages, along trade routes, into neighboring countries. By the time you realize you've been testing for the wrong thing, containment becomes exponentially harder.
The report says the world has invested billions in pandemic preparedness. So why are we less safe?
Money in the system doesn't mean money reaching the frontlines. You can have cutting-edge vaccine technology and still take two years to get doses to the people dying. That's not a preparedness problem. That's a distribution and equity problem. And it's political.
What does geopolitical fragmentation have to do with Ebola?
Everything. When countries won't share pathogen data because they fear economic punishment, when wealthy nations hoard vaccines, when the WHO's budget gets slashed—those are political choices that directly affect how fast a virus spreads. A virus doesn't care about borders, but a fragmented world does.
Is there any reason to be optimistic?
The technology exists. mRNA vaccines were developed in record time. The knowledge is there. What's missing is the political will to prioritize global health security over short-term national interests. That can change, but it requires leaders to act before the next crisis, not during it.
What happens if countries don't finalize that pandemic agreement?
We'll face the next outbreak with the same broken system we're using now. Delayed vaccines, unequal access, countries hoarding supplies, surveillance gaps. The virus won't wait for us to get our act together.