Nearly two years before Filipinos return to the polls, a national survey has placed Vice President Sara Duterte at the commanding center of the 2028 presidential contest, her 50 percent standing a reflection not merely of political momentum but of something deeper — a durable bond between a candidate and a country still sorting through its own identity. Pulse Asia's September 2026 findings, released in October, show her nearest rival, former Naga City Mayor Leni Robredo, at 26 percent, a gap that has held steady since May and suggests the race, for now, is less a contest than a waiting. The su
VP Sara maintains commanding 50% lead in 2028 presidential race: Pulse Asia
She's not just leading—she's leading everywhere except one place
Mark
So Duterte's at 50 percent—that's a commanding position. But we're talking about a survey from September, and elections are in 2028. How much can we actually read into this?
Mimi
The consistency is what stands out. She was at 49 percent in May 2026, so she's held steady. That suggests her support isn't soft or volatile—it's anchored.
Luke
But we should be careful here. Fifty percent in a survey is not the same as 50 percent on election day. Undecideds can move. New candidates can enter. And we're looking at a single polling firm's methodology.
Mark
Fair point. What about Robredo? She's at 26 percent. Is that a real second place, or is she vulnerable?
Mimi
She's clearly the main alternative, but her geography is weak. She leads only in the rest of Luzon. Everywhere else, Duterte dominates. Mindanao is 92 percent for Duterte—that's not a race, that's a coronation.
Luke
Right, but Robredo's 36 percent in the rest of Luzon is substantial. If she can build on that base and consolidate opposition voters, the gap could narrow. The survey doesn't tell us whether her supporters are loyal or just "not Duterte."
Mark
What about the vice-presidential race? Go at 31 percent seems strong, but it's fragmented below him.
Mimi
Go has Mindanao locked down at 55 percent, same pattern as Duterte. But Padilla leads among the poorest voters at 40 percent. That's a real fault line—class matters in the VP race in a way it doesn't seem to in the presidential race.
Luke
Though we should note: Padilla's 40 percent among Class E is from a single survey. We don't know if that's stable or if it's an outlier. And the survey doesn't tell us whether Go and Duterte would actually run together or whether their supporters would stick if the ticket changed.
Mark
So what's the real story here? Is Duterte inevitable?
Mimi
Not inevitable. But she starts from a position of extraordinary strength. She's not just leading—she's leading across every region except one, every income class, and every hypothetical matchup. That's rare.
Luke
The real story is that we're 20 months out and the field is still wide open below her. Tulfo, Hontiveros, Aquino—they're all single digits. That's not a settled race; that's a race where the opposition hasn't coalesced. Whether they will is the actual question.
Der Puls
- Duterte's 50 percent national standing is not a surge but a consolidation — her numbers barely shifted from May to September, signaling that her support has hardened into something more structural than seasonal.
- In Mindanao, where she draws 92 percent, the race is effectively over before it begins; the real contest, if one exists, is being fought in Metro Manila and the rest of Luzon, where Robredo shows her only competitive footing.
- Robredo's 26 percent is not collapse — she leads Duterte in rest of Luzon and ties her in Metro Manila in a direct matchup — but it is a ceiling that no alternative scenario in the survey has yet broken.
- Across five different hypothetical matchups, Duterte wins every one, ranging from 52 to 60 percent, suggesting that the field of opponents matters less than the weight of her lead itself.
- The vice-presidential race is more fluid, with Bong Go leading at 31 percent but facing regional and class-based competition that leaves the second slot genuinely open.
- With 20 months remaining and no formal declarations made, the survey is a snapshot of gravity — not destiny — and the political landscape remains capable of shifting if new candidates emerge or alliances realign.
Nearly two years before Filipinos return to the polls, a national survey has placed Vice President Sara Duterte at the commanding center of the 2028 presidential contest, her 50 percent standing a reflection not merely of political momentum but of something deeper — a durable bond between a candidate and a country still sorting through its own identity. Pulse Asia's September 2026 findings, released in October, show her nearest rival, former Naga City Mayor Leni Robredo, at 26 percent, a gap that has held steady since May and suggests the race, for now, is less a contest than a waiting. The survey, conducted independently across all regions and income classes, offers a rare still image of a nation's political imagination at rest — and raises the question of what, if anything, might yet move it.
A Pulse Asia survey released October 12 found Vice President Sara Duterte holding 50 percent voter preference in the 2028 Philippine presidential race, with Naga City Mayor Maria Leonor Robredo trailing at 26 percent. Senator Raffy Tulfo followed at 12 percent, while the remaining candidates registered in the single digits or below. The poll interviewed 2,400 adults face-to-face across the country from mid- to late September 2026.
Duterte's support was most overwhelming in Mindanao, where she drew 92 percent — a figure Pulse Asia called nearly universal — and held leads across all socioeconomic classes, from 44 percent among the highest earners to 68 percent among the lowest. Metro Manila was the most competitive terrain, where she led at 40 percent, and the rest of Luzon was the only region where Robredo held an edge, 36 to 28 percent.
The polling firm tested five alternative matchup scenarios, and Duterte prevailed in each. In a direct one-on-one race against Robredo, she led 54 to 40 percent nationally, with the two candidates tying only in Metro Manila at 46 percent apiece. Against Hontiveros in a two-way contest, Duterte reached 60 percent. The consistency across scenarios reinforced the sense that her dominance is not dependent on who else enters the race.
Comparison with Pulse Asia's May 2026 survey — which had Duterte at 49 percent and Robredo at 26 percent — showed almost no movement, suggesting her coalition has stabilized rather than grown or eroded.
In the vice-presidential field, Senator Bong Go led at 31 percent, with Robin Padilla at 19 percent, Paolo Benigno Aquino IV at 17 percent, and Grace Poe at 14 percent. Go's strength was concentrated in Mindanao and the Visayas, while Aquino led him in the rest of Luzon. The survey was conducted independently by Pulse Asia, without a commissioning party, approximately 20 months before the scheduled May 2028 elections.
A survey released Monday morning showed Vice President Sara Duterte holding a substantial lead in the race for the Philippine presidency nearly two years before voters go to the polls. The Pulse Asia poll, conducted from mid-September through late September 2026 and released on October 12, found Duterte at 50 percent among 2,400 adults interviewed face-to-face across the country. Her nearest competitor, Naga City Mayor Maria Leonor Robredo, stood at 26 percent. Senator Raffy Tulfo followed at 12 percent, with Senator Risa Hontiveros at 3 percent. Defense Secretary Gilberto Teodoro Jr. and Public Works Secretary Vince Dizon each registered 1 percent. Baguio City Mayor Benjamin Magalong drew 0.3 percent. Six percent of respondents either declined to choose or said they would not support any candidate, while 3 percent remained undecided.
Duterte's dominance was most pronounced in Mindanao, where she commanded 92 percent support—a figure the polling firm described as "almost universal." She also held commanding leads in the Visayas at 56 percent and across every socioeconomic class, ranging from 44 percent among the highest earners to 68 percent among the lowest. Metro Manila showed a tighter race, with Duterte at 40 percent. The only geographic region where Robredo led was the rest of Luzon, where the mayor drew 36 percent to Duterte's 28 percent.
Pulse Asia tested five alternative presidential scenarios, pairing Duterte against different combinations of potential opponents. In each matchup, Duterte prevailed. In a three-way race against Robredo and Raffy Tulfo, Duterte received 52 percent. When tested against Senator Erwin Tulfo and Senator Risa Hontiveros, she drew 57 percent. A similar pairing with Erwin Tulfo and Senator Paolo Benigno Aquino IV also yielded 57 percent for Duterte. In a direct head-to-head contest with Robredo alone, Duterte led 54 percent to 40 percent—a 14-point margin. Against Hontiveros in a two-way race, Duterte's support reached 60 percent to Hontiveros' 23 percent. The only region where Duterte and Robredo tied in any scenario was Metro Manila, where both drew 46 percent in their one-on-one matchup.
This September survey showed minimal movement from Pulse Asia's May 2026 poll, which had found Duterte at 49 percent, Robredo at 26 percent, and Tulfo at 14 percent. The consistency suggested her support had solidified over the intervening months rather than shifted.
On the vice-presidential side, Senator Christopher "Bong" Go led the field with 31 percent. Senator Robin Padilla placed second at 19 percent, followed by Aquino at 17 percent and former Senator Grace Poe at 14 percent. Senator Erwin Tulfo drew 10 percent, Senator Francis Pangilinan 3 percent, and Torre 0.3 percent. Go's strength lay in Mindanao, where he received 55 percent, and the Visayas at 37 percent. He also led among the highest income bracket at 37 percent and among Class D earners at 31 percent. In the rest of Luzon, Aquino led Go 26 percent to 18 percent. In Metro Manila, Go drew 26 percent to Aquino's 20 percent. Among the lowest income group, Padilla led with 40 percent compared to Go's unspecified share.
Pulse Asia stated that it conducted the "Ulat ng Bayan" survey independently without a single party commissioning the research. The firm interviewed respondents across all major geographic regions and income classes, providing a national snapshot of voter sentiment roughly 20 months before the scheduled May 2028 elections.
Bemerkenswerte Zitate
Electoral support for the Vice-President is almost universal in Mindanao— Pulse Asia
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