Voting opens in pivotal Holborn and St Pancras byelection as Greens challenge Labour

Polls opened this morning in Holborn and St Pancras, a north London constituency that has become an unlikely battleground between Labour and the Greens. The seat was held by Keir Starmer until he stepped down as an MP following his resignation as prime minister. Now it belongs to no one, and two very different visions of what should fill that vacancy are being tested by voters today.

Zack Polanski, who leads the Green Party in England and Wales, is the challenger. He has run what observers describe as an energetic campaign, mobilising large numbers of volunteers to canvass the constituency door-to-door. The strategy mirrors the Greens' approach in February's Gorton and Denton byelection, where they overturned a Labour majority that seemed insurmountable at the time. That victory sent a signal: the Greens could win in places that had always voted Labour. But the political ground has shifted considerably since then. Polling that showed the Greens briefly at 21% earlier this year has given way to more recent numbers putting them at 11%, trailing Labour by 16 points. The momentum that carried them through Gorton and Denton appears to have stalled.

The reversal coincides with turbulence inside the Green Party itself. Last weekend, at the party's annual conference, members voted to adopt a policy equating Zionism with racism and calling for Israel to be replaced by a single Palestinian state. The vote prompted immediate condemnation and fractures within the party. Four of the five Green MPs have publicly rejected the policy. Councillors and other party members have distanced themselves from it, and some have left the party altogether. Polanski, whose position as party leader might seem to require a clear stance, did not declare whether he supported the motion. He left the conference before the vote took place to resume campaigning in Holborn and St Pancras.

Labour's candidate is Sagal Abdi-Wali, a 42-year-old who leads Camden council. Her biography carries weight in this constituency. She arrived in London in the early 1990s as a refugee fleeing war in Somalia, speaking no English, accompanied by her four brothers and her mother. Her mother trained as a lawyer in Somalia. Abdi-Wali has built a career in local government, and Prime Minister Andy Burnham, who took over from Starmer in July, has framed her candidacy as a story of reciprocal obligation. In a message to voters, Burnham said the area gave Abdi-Wali a home when she needed one; now she wants to give back to those communities.

The constituency itself offers terrain that could favour either side. About 45% of residents were born outside the UK, and nearly half are between 18 and 34 years old. Many are students. These demographics have traditionally aligned with Green support in London. The Greens won several council seats across the capital in May's local elections. Yet Holborn and St Pancras is also a Labour stronghold by recent history. Starmer won it with a majority of 11,500 in 2024, and by nearly 28,000 votes in 2019. Overturning that requires not just enthusiasm but a substantial shift in voting patterns.

Polanski has acknowledged the difficulty. In a statement ahead of voting, he said the result was "looking close" and appealed to voters to choose him as a counterweight to Labour's dominance in the area. He pointed to rent controls and the future of Thames Water as issues where he believes Labour has retreated from its promises. The framing is one of pressure and accountability rather than outright replacement.

The stakes extend beyond the constituency itself. For Burnham, who has been credited with revitalising Labour since taking office and who used the party conference last month to outline a more ambitious, left-leaning policy agenda, a narrow victory or a loss would puncture the sense of momentum he has built. It would raise questions about Labour's ability to hold inner-city seats against Green challenges. For Polanski, the result will reveal whether the Green surge of earlier this year was a genuine realignment or a temporary spike, and whether the party's recent internal divisions have damaged his standing with voters who might otherwise have been persuaded to switch.