Vance softens nuclear demands as Iran war drags on amid Strait of Hormuz tensions

Seven months into a grinding conflict with Iran, the Trump administration is quietly recalibrating what it will accept to end the war. Vice President JD Vance told Reuters this week that Tehran needs to do something "meaningful" to reduce its nuclear enrichment capacity—a notably softer formulation than President Trump's earlier demands that Iran abandon enrichment altogether. Just the day before the war began in February, Trump had dismissed Iran's nuclear program with contempt, saying the country had no need to enrich uranium when it possessed vast oil reserves. By April, he claimed Iran had agreed to halt enrichment entirely. Now, seven months and 19 American deaths later, the administration appears willing to negotiate the level of enrichment rather than its existence.

The shift comes as fighting spreads across the region with no clear endpoint. Iran-backed Houthi fighters have launched repeated strikes on Saudi airports this week, killing three people and wounding dozens more. A ballistic missile struck King Khalid International Airport in Riyadh—hundreds of miles into Saudi territory—disrupting air traffic and prompting Houthi military spokesman Yahya Saree to warn international airlines against flying through Saudi airspace. The attacks are part of a broader escalation in Yemen's civil war, where more than 200,000 people have been displaced since fighting intensified in September, according to the United Nations. The Houthis control much of Yemen's northwest and have been battling the Saudi-backed government for territory, some of which they have held for over a decade.

Control of the Strait of Hormuz—the waterway through which roughly one-fifth of the world's oil passes—remains bitterly contested. Secretary of State Marco Rubio claimed Wednesday that Iran has "lost complete control" of the strait and that oil flows have nearly returned to prewar levels. But a senior Iranian military official countered that Tehran maintains "full control" and will soon block what it calls illegal shipping routes. The reality appears more complicated. While maritime tracking firms report that oil exports from the region have rebounded toward prewar levels, this recovery has come through alternative routes: overland pipelines, U.S. military escorts for tankers, and new passages reportedly cleared by explosives. A tanker off Qatar reported being struck by multiple projectiles this week, and the U.K. Maritime Trade Operations agency logged nine attacks in the strait so far this month—half the total for all of September.

The economic toll is mounting on both sides. Rubio argued that Iranian sanctions have pushed the country's economy into "total and complete freefall," with every dollar the government receives spent on proxy forces like Hezbollah and Hamas. Iran's outgoing oil minister rejected Trump's claims about the state of the economy, insisting that oil production and exports have continued despite the blockade. An unnamed senior Iranian official told Reuters that U.S. demands on the nuclear issue are "at odds with Iran's demands" to end the war, which include lifting the blockade of Iranian ports. Yet the same official suggested some flexibility on enrichment details, leaving a narrow opening for negotiation.

The human cost continues to accumulate. The USS Abraham Lincoln returned to San Diego this week after a record 321-day deployment in the Middle East. The carrier strike group flew 3,693 combat sorties, launched 450 Tomahawk cruise missiles, and sank 64 Iranian warships. But the deployment took a toll: eight sailors across the strike group attempted suicide during the grueling monthslong mission. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth praised the crew's resilience, but some Gold Star families are refusing to attend a White House reception for those killed in the war. Joey Amor, whose wife was among six American soldiers killed in an Iranian drone strike on March 1, posted on Facebook demanding transparency about what happened before the attack. Another military spouse said she had no interest in supporting an administration she views as reckless with service members' lives.

Meanwhile, diplomatic tensions are spreading beyond the immediate conflict zone. France summoned Iran's ambassador to protest what it called a "disinformation campaign" over high school protests in France, after Iran had summoned the French ambassador to complain about the treatment of demonstrators. The dispute echoes Iran's own crackdown on anti-government protests earlier this year, when security forces killed at least 4,219 people on January 8 and 9 alone, according to the Norway-based Iran Human Rights group—though the actual toll is likely far higher.

President Trump has repeatedly promised the war will end "very soon," a claim he has been making since at least March. He predicted oil prices will "drop like a rock" once the conflict ends, though Brent crude has hovered around $99 a barrel this week after spiking to $108 in mid-September. The International Energy Agency said member countries stand ready to release additional oil from strategic reserves if necessary, having already released 325 million barrels since March. Yet with Iran threatening preemptive strikes on U.S. bases, Houthis striking targets deep inside Saudi Arabia, and both sides claiming victory in a contested waterway, the path to that promised resolution remains obscured.