US pursues major stake in Venezuela's oil reserves amid opposition outcry

The Trump administration is in advanced negotiations to claim direct ownership stakes in Venezuelan oilfields containing roughly 90 billion barrels of crude—nearly a third of the country's total reserves. Multiple news outlets reported this week that US officials are discussing terms that could include a century-long lease on several fields located in the Orinoco Belt and Lake Maracaibo regions. Venezuela sits atop the world's largest proven oil reserves, an estimated 303 billion barrels, exceeding Saudi Arabia's 268 billion and Iran's 208 billion. The scale of what is being negotiated has prompted one unnamed Trump official to describe it as massive, a characterization that understates the deal's significance.

The negotiations are taking place with Venezuela's interim government, led by Delcy Rodríguez, who served as vice-president and petroleum minister under Nicolás Maduro before his capture in a January special forces raid. The Trump administration orchestrated Maduro's abduction and has effectively controlled Venezuela's governance since. Rodríguez and other holdovers from Maduro's regime, including interior minister Diosdado Cabello—who carries a $25 million US bounty for alleged drug trafficking—have been collaborating with Trump officials on the oil negotiations. Meanwhile, María Corina Machado, the exiled opposition leader whose movement is widely believed to have won Venezuela's 2024 presidential elections, remains sidelined and unable to return from exile.

The reported deal has ignited fierce criticism from Venezuelan opposition figures and exiled economists who view it as unconstitutional and a betrayal of the country's sovereignty. One prominent opposition member, speaking anonymously due to sensitivities around criticizing the United States, called it a massive land grab and described the move as revealing a rapacious, mafia-like version of America—not the nation of the Marshall Plan. Ricardo Hausmann, an exiled former minister, stated plainly that an illegitimate interim government operating under an illegitimate hydrocarbons law has no authority to strike such a deal. Economist Francisco Rodríguez urged Venezuela's national assembly to reject what he termed a predatory arrangement, arguing that surrendering the country's oil wealth to the US violates the constitution and runs counter to Venezuelan interests, particularly when imposed under military pressure.

Historians and analysts have drawn parallels to colonial-era resource extraction. Gregory Brew, an energy historian at the Eurasia Group, compared the arrangement to the Anglo-Persian Oil Company's 1901 concession in Iran, which granted the British firm sweeping control over oil resources in exchange for payments to the Persian government. That company retained virtually all profits from extracted oil and operated with near-total authority over the fields. Brew noted that Trump's conception of the Venezuelan deal appears designed to treat Venezuelan reserves as American reserves—a source of oil accessible only to the United States and denied to China, Russia, and other potential buyers. He characterized the arrangement as colonial in nature because it is.

The oil negotiations sit within a broader geopolitical strategy Trump has termed the "Donroe Doctrine," a 21st-century adaptation of the 19th-century Monroe Doctrine. Where Monroe sought to exclude European powers from the Americas, Trump's version aims to counter China's expanding influence in Latin America and impose American will through economic and military leverage. Venezuela's transformation into what many observers describe as a US protectorate represents the most dramatic expression of this doctrine to date. Some reforms have occurred under Rodríguez—hundreds of political prisoners have been released and discussions about reforming the regime-controlled supreme court have begun—but no presidential election has been scheduled. When asked about the delay, Trump told reporters last month that Rodríguez was doing a fantastic job and that Venezuela was not yet ready for a vote. The question of whether Venezuelans will ever be permitted to choose their own government remains unanswered.