We have not even begun yet
At the narrow throat of the world's energy supply, a declared ceasefire struggles to find meaning when ships refuse to sail and combatants dispute the very facts of what has occurred. The United States insists a truce holds over the Strait of Hormuz while simultaneously sinking Iranian vessels and patrolling with over a hundred aircraft; Iran's leadership signals the confrontation has barely begun. What unfolds here is not merely a military standoff but a contest over leverage — each side calculating how much pressure the global economy can absorb before the other yields on the deeper question of nuclear ambition.
- Iran's parliament speaker publicly warned that Tehran has 'not even begun yet' its response, directly contradicting Washington's claim that a ceasefire reached in April remains intact.
- The U.S. military opened a guarded corridor through Omani waters and sank six Iranian boats, yet only two merchant vessels dared to use the route while hundreds remained anchored in the Persian Gulf.
- Major shipping firms like Hapag-Lloyd declared Hormuz transits impossible for their vessels, and insurance markets remain frozen, meaning military action alone has failed to restore commercial confidence.
- Iranian drone and missile strikes on UAE civilian infrastructure drew condemnation from India, Pakistan, and Saudi Arabia, widening the conflict's diplomatic footprint even as Tehran neither confirmed nor denied the attacks.
- With fuel prices rising across Europe and Asia and Trump's nuclear negotiation leverage tied directly to reopening the strait, the economic clock is ticking against a resolution that neither side appears ready to deliver.
American officials insist the ceasefire is holding, but the Strait of Hormuz tells a different story. On Monday, the U.S. military announced it had cleared a shipping lane through the waterway and sunk six Iranian boats threatening commercial traffic. By Tuesday, only two merchant ships had used the route. Hundreds more remained bottled up in the Persian Gulf, their owners unwilling to risk the passage.
Iran's parliament speaker Mohammad Bagher Qalibaf offered a stark counter-narrative, posting on social media that Tehran had "not even begun yet" its response to American efforts to reopen the strait. The ceasefire struck on April 8 appeared fragile at best. Iran also disputed the U.S. account of Monday's naval action, with a military commander claiming only two civilian cargo boats were struck, killing five people — not the six vessels Washington described.
The strategic stakes could hardly be higher. The strait, just 21 miles wide at its narrowest, carries the bulk of global oil and gas supplies. Its closure has sent fuel prices soaring and destabilized economies across Europe and Asia. For the Trump administration, reopening it is inseparable from nuclear negotiations — a functioning waterway would strip Iran of its most powerful bargaining chip.
The military picture remains daunting. Iran's cruise missiles, drones, fast attack craft, and mines can reach the entire strait and its approaches. The new American-approved corridor runs through Omani territorial waters, bypassing Iran's preferred northern passage, but former military officers describe the operation as dangerous and highly challenging regardless. Hapag-Lloyd, one of the world's largest container shippers, stated plainly that Hormuz transits were "not possible" for its vessels. Risk analysts were equally blunt, calling the initiative insufficient to reopen the waterway.
The conflict's reach extended further on Tuesday when the UAE reported Iranian drone and missile strikes on civilian infrastructure. Indian Prime Minister Modi called the targeting of UAE civilians "unacceptable," with Pakistan and Saudi Arabia also condemning the attacks. Iran's foreign minister warned that both the U.S. and UAE "should be wary of being dragged back into quagmire." The Trump administration, which has maintained a naval blockade on Iranian ports since April 13, faces a deepening paradox: military pressure designed to force nuclear concessions may be sustaining the very instability that makes resolution impossible.
The ceasefire is holding, American officials insist. Yet ships are still not moving through the Strait of Hormuz, Iran keeps attacking, and the world's oil markets remain in a state of suspended anxiety. On Monday, the U.S. military announced it had cleared a shipping lane through the waterway and sunk six Iranian boats threatening commercial vessels. By Tuesday, only two merchant ships had actually used the route. Hundreds more sat bottled up in the Persian Gulf, their owners unwilling to risk the passage.
Mohammad Bagher Qalibaf, Iran's parliament speaker and chief negotiator, sent a different message. In a post on social media, he suggested that Iran had barely begun its response to American efforts to reopen the strait. "We know full well that the continuation of the status quo is intolerable for America; while we have not even begun yet," he wrote. The statement carried an unmistakable warning: the ceasefire reached nearly a month earlier, on April 8, was fragile at best. Iran disputed Washington's account of events, with a military commander claiming that only two civilian cargo boats had been struck on Monday, resulting in five deaths—not the six vessels the U.S. described.
The stakes are enormous. The Strait of Hormuz, just 21 miles wide at its narrowest point, is the world's most critical energy chokepoint. Before Iran's closure of the waterway, it carried the bulk of global oil and gas supplies, along with fertilizer and other petroleum products. The blockade has sent fuel prices soaring and destabilized economies across Europe and Asia. For the Trump administration, reopening the strait is not merely about commerce—it is about leverage. A functioning waterway would strip Iran of its most powerful bargaining chip as the U.S. demands a major rollback of Iran's nuclear program.
The military picture is daunting. More than 100 U.S. aircraft now patrol the skies above the strait. The new American-approved shipping route runs through Omani territorial waters to the south, bypassing Iran's preferred northern corridor—a passage that requires vetting by Iran's Revolutionary Guard and sometimes payment. But Iran can strike anywhere in the waterway. Its cruise missiles reach the entire strait and its approaches. It possesses longer-range missiles, drones, fast attack craft, and mines. Former military officers who have worked the waters say opening the passage would be dangerous and highly challenging, even with military protection.
Shipping companies are not convinced. Hapag-Lloyd, one of the world's largest container shipping firms, stated plainly: "Transits through the Strait of Hormuz are for the moment not possible for our ships." Torbjorn Soltvedt, a Middle East analyst at the risk intelligence firm Verisk Maplecroft, offered a blunt assessment: "This initiative alone isn't something that looks like it's going to open the Strait of Hormuz." Insurance companies and shippers are waiting to see how events unfold. One Panamanian-flagged crude oil tanker was spotted heading toward the center of the strait on Tuesday, but whether it would attempt passage remained unclear.
On Tuesday, the UAE's Defense Ministry reported another Iranian drone and missile attack. Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi called the targeting of UAE civilians and infrastructure "unacceptable." Pakistan and Saudi Arabia also condemned the strikes. Tehran neither confirmed nor denied the attacks, but Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi warned that the U.S. and the UAE "should be wary of being dragged back into quagmire." The Trump administration has also imposed a naval blockade on Iranian ports since April 13 and warned shipping companies they could face sanctions if they pay Iran for transit rights.
The blockade is designed to squeeze Iran's economy and force concessions on its nuclear program. But it has also left the ceasefire in a state of ambiguity. U.S. military leadership, including the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, insists the truce remains in effect. Yet Iran's signals suggest a different calculation—that the conflict that began with U.S. and Israeli strikes on February 28 has merely paused, not ended. The question now is whether American military action can reassure shippers without reigniting the war. So far, the answer appears to be no.
Notable Quotes
We know full well that the continuation of the status quo is intolerable for America; while we have not even begun yet.— Mohammad Bagher Qalibaf, Iran's parliament speaker and chief negotiator
Transits through the Strait of Hormuz are for the moment not possible for our ships.— Hapag-Lloyd AG, one of the world's largest container shipping companies
The Hearth Conversation Another angle on the story
If the ceasefire is holding, why are there still attacks happening?
Because both sides are interpreting the ceasefire differently. The U.S. says opening a shipping lane doesn't violate it. Iran says it does. The attacks continue because Iran hasn't accepted that interpretation yet.
What does Iran actually want?
Leverage. The strait closure is their only real bargaining chip against the U.S. If it opens, they lose that. So they're signaling they haven't finished responding—that worse could come if the U.S. keeps pushing.
But why aren't ships using the new route if the U.S. is protecting it?
Because protection from the U.S. military doesn't mean safety. Iran can still reach the strait with missiles and drones. Insurance companies won't cover the risk. Shippers know that one successful attack would be catastrophic for their business.
Is this about nuclear negotiations?
Partly. Trump wants Iran to roll back its nuclear program. But Iran can't negotiate from weakness. As long as they control the strait, they have something to trade. Once it opens, that leverage evaporates.
So the blockade is meant to force Iran to the table?
Yes. The U.S. is cutting off Iran's oil revenue and threatening sanctions against any company that pays Iran for transit. The idea is economic pressure will make concessions inevitable.
Will it work?
Not if Iran decides the cost of backing down is higher than the cost of escalating. Right now, that's exactly what their parliament speaker is signaling.