US-Canada trade war threatens to spike toilet paper prices as tariffs loom

The bathroom aisle is about to get expensive. After trade negotiations between the United States and Canada collapsed last weekend, the two countries have entered a full trade war that will reshape the price of everyday goods on both sides of the border. Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney responded by vowing to match American tariffs "dollar for dollar," releasing a list of nearly 900 US products that will face tariffs ranging from 25% to 50% beginning September 8. Paper products—toilet paper, facial tissues, paper towels—landed among the hardest-hit categories, a consequence of how deeply integrated North American manufacturing has become.

The toilet paper threat is not abstract. The United States imported $328 million worth of toilet paper from Canada in 2024, making Canada by far the largest supplier of the product to American consumers. American manufacturers like Procter & Gamble, which owns Charmin, depend on Canadian lumber for raw materials. Even when toilet paper is made in US factories, the supply chain runs north. Major retailers including Costco source significant portions of their paper products from Canada. When tariffs of 25% to 50% land on that incoming material, manufacturers will have little choice but to pass the cost forward. Procter & Gamble signaled as much last year, stating it would need to raise prices if tariffs were imposed.

The scale of American toilet paper consumption makes this particularly consequential. The United States accounts for more than 20% of global tissue use despite representing only 4% of the world's population. The average American uses 141 rolls per year—more than any other nation except Germany, where the average is 134 rolls annually. That consumption level means tariff increases will touch nearly every household.

But toilet paper is only one front in a much wider conflict. Canada has targeted American dairy products with a 50% tariff, exempting only cheese, which faces 25%. The move came after Trump imposed his own 50% tariff on nearly all Canadian dairy in what he framed as retaliation for earlier Canadian levies against American dairy. Liquor has become another flashpoint. Popular Canadian whiskey brands Crown Royal and Canadian Club now face 50% American tariffs. While Canada has not yet imposed tariffs on American alcohol, most Canadian provinces have introduced their own bans on American liquor in response to earlier American tariffs on Canadian goods. Prime Minister Carney has asked provincial leaders to reconsider those bans, but the Nova Scotia premier Tim Houston offered a blunt assessment to CBC News: even if American liquor returns to shelves, whether Canadians will actually buy it "is a whole other discussion."

The auto industry faces its own pressure. A 25% tariff on Canadian cars and auto parts will disrupt American manufacturers, which rely heavily on Canadian suppliers. Trump has threatened to double that tariff to 50% if no deal emerges by January 1, 2027. Canada has also imposed a 25% tariff on American fish and seafood, including frozen lobster—a move that prompted Republican Senator Susan Collins of Maine, facing a difficult reelection campaign in the nation's lobster capital, to call Trump's action "a mistake."

The Trump administration insists none of this will reach American consumers. Jamieson Greer, the US trade representative, stated flatly that "there's no possible way" the trade dispute will affect US consumers, adding that "the fundamentals are good" and "I don't think this is going to affect anything." That claim sits uneasily against the reality of how tariffs work and how integrated the two economies have become. With negotiations currently stalled and no clear timeline for resolution, both countries are now waiting to see whether the tariffs take effect as scheduled or whether political pressure forces a reversal. For now, the September 8 date looms.