US Allies Worry Trump May Leverage Taiwan in Xi Negotiations

The question hanging over allied capitals these days is not whether Donald Trump will negotiate with Xi Jinping—that much seems certain—but what he might offer to get a deal. Taiwan, the self-governed island that sits at the center of US-China tensions, has become the focal point of that anxiety.

American allies across the Pacific and beyond are watching Trump's approach to China with a particular kind of dread. His track record suggests he is willing to upend long-standing commitments if he believes a transaction serves his interests. Taiwan, which has relied on implicit and explicit American security guarantees for decades, suddenly looks vulnerable to being recast as a bargaining chip rather than a principle.

The concern is not abstract. Taiwan's status has been carefully managed through decades of diplomatic ambiguity—the US maintains unofficial relations with the island while acknowledging Beijing's "One China" position, a balance that has held even as tensions have periodically flared. But Trump has shown little patience for such nuance. His previous term saw him speak directly with Taiwan's president, breaking with decades of protocol. He has also suggested that allies should pay more for American military protection, raising the question of whether Taiwan's security might be traded away if the price seemed right.

For allied nations—Japan, South Korea, Australia, and others whose security architectures depend on American credibility—the risk is existential. If Trump uses Taiwan as a negotiating tool with Xi, it signals that no American commitment is truly ironclad. A deal that trades Taiwan's autonomy or security status for concessions on trade, North Korea, or other issues would reshape the entire regional balance. It would also suggest that smaller nations cannot rely on American promises when a larger power offers something more valuable to Washington.

The timing adds urgency. Trump has signaled his intention to meet with Xi, and his team has indicated that China policy will be a priority. Taiwan's government has watched these signals with alarm, aware that its future could be decided in rooms where its voice carries no weight. The island has spent the past several years strengthening its own defenses and deepening ties with like-minded democracies, but these efforts cannot substitute for the security umbrella that only America can provide.

What makes this moment different from previous periods of US-China tension is the unpredictability factor. Previous administrations, even when they disagreed on China policy, operated within a framework of established commitments. Trump has shown he is willing to abandon frameworks if they do not serve his immediate objectives. His approach to alliances has been transactional—he views them as arrangements that should benefit America first, and he has been willing to question their value if they do not.

Allied governments are not openly breaking with Washington, but their private conversations tell a different story. They are hedging, deepening relationships with other partners, and preparing contingencies. Some are accelerating military buildups. Others are exploring ways to reduce their dependence on American security guarantees. The fear is not that Trump will suddenly hand Taiwan to China, but that he will negotiate away the clarity and commitment that have kept the status quo stable.

What comes next will likely be determined by Trump's first moves toward Xi. Any signal that Taiwan is on the negotiating table—whether explicit or implicit—will accelerate allied anxieties and force a recalibration of security strategies across the region. The island itself has little room to maneuver. It can only hope that whatever deal Trump strikes, it does not come at the cost of the security architecture that has allowed it to exist as it does.