Ukraine's sustained drone campaign cripples Russian oil refining capacity

Ukraine has shifted its military strategy toward a sustained assault on Russia's ability to export oil, striking at refineries and ports across western and southern Russia with a precision that has begun to reshape the economics of the war. Since January, six major refineries have been damaged or taken offline by drone attacks—Kirishi, Saratov, Volgograd, Ukhta, Ilsky, and Afipsky—each one a critical node in Russia's refining network. The cumulative effect is stark: as of this week, at least forty percent of Russia's total oil export capacity has been halted, according to calculations based on market data.

The campaign appears deliberate and escalating. President Volodymyr Zelenskiy told Reuters that Ukraine is using long-range strikes on energy infrastructure to maintain pressure on Russia, particularly after international oil sanctions on Moscow were eased following the Iran war. The timing is significant. Peace talks have stalled, and Ukraine has chosen to tighten the economic noose rather than wait for diplomatic movement.

The Volgograd refinery, owned by Lukoil, was completely shut down on February 11 after drone strikes damaged its primary crude distillation unit—the CDU-1—which alone accounts for roughly forty percent of the facility's processing capacity. In 2024, Volgograd processed 13.7 million tons of oil annually. The Saratov refinery, controlled by Rosneft, was struck on March 21, and its crude distillation unit has remained offline since. That single facility processed 5.8 million metric tons in 2024, representing 2.2 percent of Russia's total refining output. The Kirishi refinery in northwest Russia, one of the country's largest, halted processing on Thursday after fires broke out in sections of the plant following Ukrainian drone attacks. The Ukhta refinery in northern Russia caught fire on February 12 when its primary processing unit was hit; that unit handles about one-third of the refinery's total daily capacity. The Ilsky refinery in southern Russia burned on February 17 before the fire was extinguished the next day; it processes 6.6 million tons annually and is heavily export-oriented. The Afipsky refinery in the south, which processed 144,000 barrels per day in 2024, was struck on January 21.

The damage extends beyond the refineries themselves. The Baltic Sea ports of Ust-Luga and Primorsk, which serve as the primary hubs for Russian oil exports from the region, have come under repeated drone attacks this week and were forced to suspend operations. Primorsk resumed loadings on Thursday, though at reduced capacity due to infrastructure damage. Russia's pipeline monopoly Transneft cut crude intake into its system by approximately 250,000 barrels per day after a Ukrainian drone attack on February 23 struck a pumping station serving major oil hubs and ports. In the Black Sea, drones have struck oil tankers, including one chartered by U.S. oil major Chevron, as they sailed toward Russian terminals.

The strategy reflects a shift in how Ukraine is prosecuting the war. Unable to match Russia's military size or resources, Ukraine has identified the energy sector as a pressure point—one that affects not just military operations but the broader Russian economy and its ability to fund the war effort. Each refinery offline means less refined product for export, less hard currency flowing into Moscow's coffers, and less fuel available for domestic use or military logistics. The attacks are not random; they target facilities with the highest processing capacity and those most critical to export revenue.

What remains unclear is how long Russia can sustain these losses. The country has shown resilience in the face of previous strikes, rerouting exports and bringing damaged facilities back online. But the frequency and scale of the current campaign suggest Ukraine is trying to overwhelm Russia's capacity to repair and adapt. As long as peace talks remain stalled, this campaign appears likely to continue.