Putin has long wanted exactly this: to weaken his isolation
Nearly a thousand days into Russia's invasion of Ukraine, the arrival of a new American presidency has stirred both hope and anxiety across the diplomatic world. Zelenskyy reads in Trump's election a chance to shorten the war, while Germany's Scholz reaches across the silence to Putin — a gesture Kyiv sees as dangerous generosity toward an aggressor. The energy cutoff to Austria and the continued drone strikes remind us that diplomacy and destruction are never truly separate theaters; they are, in every war, the same stage.
- Zelenskyy emerges from post-election talks with Trump cautiously hopeful, believing the incoming administration will accelerate the war's end — but the optimism rests on a conversation, not yet a commitment.
- Scholz's direct call to Putin — the first in nearly two years — fractures the Western posture of isolation, and Zelenskyy warns it opens a 'Pandora's box' that hands Moscow exactly the legitimacy it has craved.
- The Kremlin and Berlin offer starkly different accounts of the Scholz-Putin exchange: Germany speaks of withdrawal and just peace, while Moscow insists any deal must honor its seized territories and security demands.
- On the ground, Ukrainian drones strike Russian regions while Russian air defenses claim multiple intercepts — the war's grinding rhythm indifferent to the diplomatic conversations swirling above it.
- Russia suspends gas deliveries to Austria as Ukraine refuses to renew the transit agreement, with Kyiv framing the cutoff not as disruption but as deliberate economic warfare against the Russian war machine.
Nearly a thousand days into Russia's invasion, the diplomatic landscape shifted this week in ways both hopeful and unsettling. Volodymyr Zelenskyy emerged from a phone call with Donald Trump convinced the incoming American president would help end the war sooner. "I didn't hear anything that goes against our position," he said. Trump, speaking from Mar-a-Lago, was characteristically brief: "It's got to stop."
Yet even as Zelenskyy voiced optimism, other diplomatic currents were moving in directions that troubled him. German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, after speaking with Trump, told reporters the president-elect held a more nuanced position on Ukraine than widely assumed — one that would not involve deals made over Kyiv's head. Germany, Scholz added, would not accept a "peace by diktat."
Scholz's most consequential act came Friday, when he called Vladimir Putin directly — the first such conversation in nearly two years. Berlin said Scholz urged Russian withdrawal and negotiations toward a lasting peace. Moscow's account was different: Putin insisted any settlement must reflect Russian security interests and what he called "new territorial realities" — a phrase carrying the weight of occupied land.
Zelenskyy's response was immediate and pointed. He accused Scholz of opening a "Pandora's box" by breaking Putin's isolation, warning that other calls and conversations would follow, diluting the pressure on Moscow. European officials had cautioned Scholz against making the call.
Meanwhile, the war continued without pause. Ukrainian drones struck multiple Russian regions, while Russian officials reported damage to an apartment building in Belgorod. On the energy front, Russia suspended gas deliveries to Austria via Ukraine — a move expected as the broader transit agreement nears its year-end expiration. Kyiv has refused to renew it, framing the cutoff as a deliberate effort to deny Russia revenue that funds its military.
The convergence of these events — Zelenskyy's fragile hope about Trump, Scholz's outreach to Putin, the energy cutoff, the ongoing fighting — marked a conflict entering a new and deeply uncertain phase. The central question remained whether Washington would sustain Ukraine's defense or seek a settlement shaped by Russian territorial gains. Zelenskyy was betting on the former. But the calls between Berlin and Moscow suggested others were already preparing for a very different conversation.
Nearly a thousand days into Russia's invasion, the diplomatic landscape shifted this week in ways both hopeful and fraught. Volodymyr Zelenskyy emerged from a phone call with Donald Trump convinced the incoming American president would accelerate an end to the war. Speaking to Ukrainian media on Friday, Zelenskyy said the conflict would "end sooner" once Trump took office, citing what he described as a constructive conversation after the election. "I didn't hear anything that goes against our position," he said. Trump himself, speaking from his Mar-a-Lago resort, offered a more terse formulation: "We're going to work very hard on Russia and Ukraine. It's got to stop."
Yet even as Zelenskyy voiced optimism, the diplomatic machinery was moving in directions that unsettled him. German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, who had spoken with Trump by phone on Sunday, told reporters the president-elect held a "more nuanced position" on Ukraine than commonly understood—one that would not involve making deals over Kyiv's head. Scholz described his own conversation with Trump as "perhaps surprisingly, a very detailed and good conversation." Germany would not accept what Scholz called a "peace by diktat," he added, a pointed reference to imposed settlements that ignore the wishes of the occupied nation.
But Scholz's most consequential move came on Friday, when he placed a call to Vladimir Putin—the first direct conversation between the two leaders in nearly two years. The German government said Scholz urged Putin to withdraw Russian forces and begin negotiations with Kyiv that could lead to a "just and lasting peace." The Kremlin's readout was notably different. Putin, according to Moscow's account, insisted that any agreement must account for Russian security interests and reflect what he called "new territorial realities"—diplomatic language for the territory Russia has seized and now claims.
Zelenskyy's reaction was swift and sharp. He accused Scholz of opening a "Pandora's box" by breaking Putin's isolation, the very thing the Russian leader had long sought. "Now there may be other conversations, other calls. Just a lot of words," Zelenskyy said in his evening address. He saw in Scholz's move exactly what Putin wanted: a return to ordinary diplomacy that would weaken the pressure on Moscow. European officials, including Zelenskyy himself, had cautioned Scholz against making the call.
On the ground, the war continued its grinding momentum. Ukrainian drones struck multiple Russian regions on Friday. Russian air defences claimed to have shot down fifteen drones over Kursk region, where Ukrainian forces had launched a major incursion in August, plus additional drones over Bryansk, Lipetsk, and Oryol regions. In Belgorod region, near the border and a frequent target, Russian officials reported that drone attacks damaged an apartment building and shattered windows, though they said no one was killed.
Energy became another front in the conflict. Russia announced it would suspend gas deliveries to Austria via Ukraine starting Saturday. The broader transit agreement through Ukraine is set to expire at year's end, and Kyiv has said it will not renew it—a deliberate choice to cut off revenue that Ukraine says finances the Russian war machine. Austria's chancellor acknowledged the move was expected and that his country had prepared alternatives. But Ukraine's foreign minister framed it differently: Russia was weaponizing energy once again, using fuel supplies as leverage in a conflict where every tool becomes a weapon.
The convergence of these developments—Zelenskyy's cautious hope about Trump, Scholz's diplomatic outreach to Putin, the energy cutoff, the continued fighting—painted a picture of a conflict entering a new and uncertain phase. The question hanging over everything was whether the incoming American administration would sustain Ukraine's defense or seek a settlement that reflected Russian territorial gains. For now, Zelenskyy was betting on the former. But the calls between Berlin and Moscow suggested that others were already preparing for a different kind of conversation.
Citações Notáveis
The war will end sooner with the policies of the team that will now lead the White House— Volodymyr Zelenskyy
We're going to work very hard on Russia and Ukraine. It's got to stop.— Donald Trump
This is exactly what Putin has long wanted: it is extremely important for him to weaken his isolation— Volodymyr Zelenskyy, on Scholz's call to Putin
A Conversa do Hearth Outra perspectiva sobre a história
Why does Zelenskyy trust Trump on this, given Trump's skepticism about NATO and foreign aid?
Zelenskyy is reading the signals he got directly—a phone call he described as constructive, no red flags. He's also aware that Trump has leverage with Russia in ways Biden didn't. But it's hope built on a very thin foundation.
And Scholz's call to Putin—was that a betrayal, or just pragmatism?
Zelenskyy saw it as a betrayal because it breaks the unified front against Russia. But Scholz probably saw it as Germany's responsibility to explore every diplomatic channel. The problem is that Putin interprets any conversation as weakness, as proof that isolation is cracking.
What does Putin actually want from these talks?
He wants recognition of the territory he's taken. He wants sanctions relief. He wants to be treated as a legitimate negotiating partner again, not a pariah. Every call Scholz makes gives him that legitimacy.
So the gas suspension—is that Ukraine punishing Austria, or punishing Russia?
It's Ukraine punishing Russia by cutting off the money. Austria gets caught in the middle. But Ukraine sees it as the only leverage it has left if the West starts negotiating without it.
What happens if Trump does try to broker a deal?
That's the fear. A deal that locks in Russian territorial gains would be a historic shift. Ukraine would lose land it's fighting to keep. But if Trump can actually pressure Putin to negotiate, maybe there's a path forward that doesn't involve another five years of war.
And if he can't?
Then we're back where we started, except America has stepped back and Europe is divided. That's the real risk.