Russia is racing the clock before Trump takes office
At the close of 2024, a Slovakian prime minister crossed the threshold of the Kremlin — one of the last EU leaders to do so — carrying not ideology but a heating bill and a winter deadline. The expiration of a gas transit agreement through Ukraine on December 31st has forced a small Central European nation to choose between economic survival and political solidarity, while Russian forces press forward on Ukrainian soil and Kyiv seeks the permanent shelter of a NATO umbrella. This moment sits at the intersection of energy dependence, territorial ambition, and the slow erosion of a postwar European order — a reminder that war is never fought on a single front.
- A five-year gas transit agreement expires December 31st, and Ukraine's refusal to renew it leaves Slovakia facing a winter without its primary energy source.
- Robert Fico's rare visit to Putin — condemned by Kyiv and watched nervously by EU capitals — reflects how energy desperation can fracture Western solidarity at its most critical seam.
- Russia is accelerating its territorial capture across eastern Ukraine, seizing over 190 settlements this year and racing to consolidate gains before a potentially friendlier American administration takes office in January.
- Ukraine's pursuit of NATO membership intensifies as Zelenskyy frames it as the only credible guarantee against a future Russian attack once any ceasefire takes hold.
- Five Ukrainian POWs are alleged to have been executed after capture, and footage of a beaten Australian volunteer fighter surfaces on Telegram, deepening the war's human reckoning.
On a Sunday in late December, Vladimir Putin received Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico at the Kremlin — a meeting that stood out precisely because so few Western leaders still make that journey. Fico came with a practical crisis: the agreement allowing Russian gas to transit through Ukraine expires December 31st, and Zelenskyy has refused to renew it. Putin offered reassurances that Russia would keep supplying gas to Slovakia and Europe, but those words carry little weight once the calendar turns.
Slovakia's dependence on that pipeline is near total, and the consequences of losing it mid-winter are severe. Fico has been assembling alternatives — a pilot deal with Azerbaijan, an LNG agreement with the United States routed through Poland, and potential access to European sources via neighboring pipelines. None of these solutions are seamless or cheap, and none are ready to fill the gap immediately. The Moscow visit was an attempt to preserve the existing arrangement, a pragmatic move that has strained Slovakia's relationships in Kyiv and Brussels alike.
Meanwhile, Russian forces pushed further into eastern Ukraine, announcing the capture of two more villages including one near the besieged town of Kurakhove — a resource hub whose fall would open the path to broader Russian control of Donetsk. Moscow claims more than 190 Ukrainian settlements seized this year, a pace that has sharply accelerated. Ukraine's forces, thinned by manpower shortages and ammunition gaps, are struggling to hold their lines. Russia appears to be racing the clock before Donald Trump's January inauguration potentially reshapes American support.
Zelenskyy, addressing his diplomats on Sunday, insisted that NATO membership remains both necessary and achievable — the only guarantee, in Kyiv's view, that would prevent Russia from regrouping and attacking again after any peace. The alliance has acknowledged Ukraine's eventual membership in principle but offered no timeline or invitation.
The war's human cost sharpened again this week. Ukraine's human rights commissioner alleged that five Ukrainian prisoners of war were executed by Russian forces after capture, calling for international prosecution. Separately, a video emerged on Telegram appearing to show an Australian volunteer fighter named Oscar Jenkins being beaten and interrogated by Russian troops on the eastern front. The Australian government confirmed it was investigating, while the footage's authenticity remained unverified — a grim reminder that this conflict has drawn lives from far beyond its borders, and has yet to find its end.
On Sunday, Vladimir Putin welcomed Robert Fico to the Kremlin—a striking moment of diplomacy between Moscow and the European Union at a time when most Western leaders have severed direct contact with the Russian president. The Slovakian prime minister arrived with an urgent problem: his country's lifeline of natural gas, which flows from Russia through Ukrainian territory, is about to be cut off. The five-year transit agreement expires on December 31st, and Ukraine's president, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, has refused to renew it. Fico left the meeting with Putin's assurance that Russia remains willing to supply gas to Slovakia and the rest of Europe—a promise that carries little practical weight once the calendar turns to January.
Slovakia's energy predicament is real and immediate. The country depends almost entirely on Russian gas arriving via Ukraine, and losing that supply would cripple heating and industry through the winter months. Fico has spent recent weeks scrambling for alternatives. Last month, Slovakia signed a short-term pilot agreement to purchase gas from Azerbaijan. Earlier in the year, it secured a deal to import liquefied natural gas from the United States, routed through Poland. The country can also draw supplies through pipelines connected to Austria, Hungary, and the Czech Republic, opening potential access to German and other European sources. These options exist on paper, but they are expensive, complicated, and cannot be fully operational overnight. Fico's visit to Putin was an attempt to buy time and preserve the existing arrangement—a practical calculation that has drawn criticism from Kyiv and concern from other EU capitals.
While Fico negotiated in Moscow, Russian forces continued their relentless push across eastern Ukraine. The Russian defence ministry announced on Sunday that troops had captured two more villages: Lozova in the Kharkiv region to the northeast, and Krasnoye, known as Sontsivka in Ukrainian. The second village sits near Kurakhove, a resource hub that Russia has nearly surrounded and views as a crucial stepping stone toward controlling the entire Donetsk region. Moscow claims to have seized more than 190 Ukrainian settlements this year alone, a pace of territorial gain that has accelerated sharply in recent months. Ukrainian forces, stretched thin by manpower shortages and ammunition constraints, are struggling to hold defensive lines. The timing is no accident: Russia is racing to capture as much ground as possible before Donald Trump takes office in January, betting that a new American administration may be less committed to supporting Ukraine's defense.
Ukraine's leadership is pursuing a different kind of security. Zelenskyy told the country's diplomats on Sunday that Ukraine will have to fight hard to convince its allies to grant it NATO membership, but he described the goal as achievable. Kyiv views membership in the transatlantic military alliance—or some equivalent security guarantee—as essential to any lasting peace agreement. Without it, officials argue, Russia would simply rearm and attack again once the current conflict ends. NATO has stated that Ukraine will eventually join the alliance, but has offered no timeline and issued no formal invitation. The path forward remains uncertain and contested.
The human toll of the war continues to mount in ways that extend beyond territorial maps. Ukraine's parliamentary commissioner for human rights, Dmytro Lubinets, alleged on Sunday that Russian forces had executed five Ukrainian prisoners of war. According to his account, the soldiers were shot after being captured, unarmed and defenseless. Lubinets called for those responsible to face an international tribunal and receive the harshest penalties available under law. Russia did not immediately respond to the allegation, though Moscow has consistently denied committing war crimes throughout the conflict.
In a separate incident that has drawn urgent attention from the Australian government, a video circulating on Telegram appears to show Russian forces capturing an Australian man fighting for Ukraine on the eastern front. The man, who identified himself as Oscar Jenkins, is struck repeatedly and interrogated roughly in Russian in the footage. Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese acknowledged on Monday that the situation was concerning, noting that Russian forces sometimes spread false information but that his government was working to verify the facts and provide support. The video's authenticity remains unconfirmed, but its emergence underscores how the war has drawn foreign volunteers into a conflict that shows no signs of resolution.
Notable Quotes
Russian President Putin confirmed readiness to continue supplying gas to Slovakia, which is practically impossible after January 1, 2025, given Ukraine's stance— Robert Fico, Slovak Prime Minister
Russian war criminals who shoot Ukrainian prisoners of war should be brought before an international tribunal and punished with the most severe punishment provided by law— Dmytro Lubinets, Ukraine's parliamentary commissioner for human rights
The Hearth Conversation Another angle on the story
Why does Slovakia's gas deal matter so much? It's one country.
Because it's the hinge between Russia and Europe right now. If Russia can keep supplying gas through Ukraine even during wartime, it proves the war hasn't actually broken the economic ties between Moscow and the West. It also means Ukraine has leverage—Zelenskyy is using the transit contract as a bargaining chip.
But Fico went to Putin anyway. Doesn't that undermine Zelenskyy?
It does, and that's the tension. Fico is a pragmatist facing a winter without heat. He's betting he can negotiate directly with Moscow and bypass Kyiv's refusal. It's a gamble that angers Ukraine but makes sense if you're responsible for keeping your own people warm.
What happens on January 1st if nothing changes?
The gas stops flowing. Slovakia has alternatives—Azerbaijan, US liquefied gas, pipelines through neighbors—but they're all more expensive and take time to scale up. There will be shortages and price spikes. It's a crisis, but not a catastrophe if the alternatives work.
And Russia is advancing militarily at the same time?
Yes. They're moving faster now, trying to grab as much territory as possible before Trump takes office. They think a new American president might be less willing to fund Ukraine's defense. So Russia is racing the clock.
Does Ukraine have any leverage left?
NATO membership is their long-term play. If they can convince the alliance to admit them, it becomes a red line—Russia can't attack a NATO member without triggering collective defense. But that's months or years away, and the fighting is happening now.