UK set for sunny spell next week as high pressure brings warmer, drier weather

After weeks of rain and wind that have left much of the country feeling waterlogged and weary, the UK is about to catch a break. High pressure is moving in next week, and with it comes the kind of weather that makes you reconsider whether summer has truly ended. Temperatures could climb to 25 degrees Celsius across parts of England and Wales—several degrees warmer than what September typically delivers—and for most of the country, the relentless Atlantic storms that have dominated recent weeks will finally lose their grip.

The mechanism is straightforward enough. High pressure acts like a shield, blocking the wet and windy systems that normally roll in from the Atlantic. Those storm tracks will be deflected northward, leaving northwest Scotland to deal with some rain while the rest of the country settles into drier, calmer conditions. The past few weeks have been relentlessly changeable, with strong winds and frequent downpours across nearly every region. Yet despite this wet spell, Wales and most of England remain officially in drought—a reminder that a few weeks of rain, however heavy, cannot undo months of deficit.

The transition begins this weekend. Friday will bring stronger southwesterly winds and rain pushing in from the west, but by Saturday the pattern starts to shift. The northern half of the UK will see sunshine return alongside scattered showers, mostly confined to Scotland. The south will remain cloudier and more humid, with the possibility of light rain and drizzle. Sunday should see most places dry out, with sunny spells breaking through. Temperatures on Sunday will reach around 22 degrees in southern England—unremarkable for mid-September, but a welcome return to stability.

Then comes the real change. As the working week begins, high pressure settles firmly over the region. Winds will ease. Sunshine will become the dominant feature for much of the country. While the occasional shower cannot be ruled out entirely, most places will stay dry throughout the week. The Atlantic's rain-bearing clouds will be confined to the far northwest, unable to penetrate further inland. Temperatures will climb steadily: 20 degrees expected in Scotland and Northern Ireland, and up to 25 degrees in England and Wales. These figures sit comfortably above the September average, though they fall well short of the UK's September record of 35.6 degrees, set in 1906 at Bawtry in South Yorkshire.

It is worth noting that this quieter spell owes nothing to El Niño, the record-breaking warming event currently unfolding in the Pacific Ocean. The immediate forecast is driven by local atmospheric patterns. However, the longer view is more complicated. The Met Office's extended outlook suggests that November could bring a different story—deeper areas of low pressure, potentially severe weather, and a pattern consistent with what often happens during El Niño years in autumn. But El Niño events are not uniform in their effects. The same large-scale ocean warming can produce different regional outcomes depending on other atmospheric factors at play. So while the odds of stormy weather in November may be tilted upward, nothing is certain. For now, the forecast is simply for a week of respite, and for many parts of the country, that will be enough.