Trump's tariffs squeeze US manufacturers as midterm elections loom

Doug Rende runs Shapes Unlimited, an aluminum products manufacturer in North Jackson, Ohio, making building fixtures like fences and railings. When he sits down to talk about his business these days, the first word that comes out is frustration. Since January 2025, when President Trump returned to office and began imposing tariffs across multiple sectors, Rende's company has absorbed between $4.5 million and $5 million in additional costs in a single year alone. The tariffs on aluminum have climbed steadily—10 percent during Trump's first term, then 25 percent, then 50 percent last year. For a manufacturer operating on thin margins, that escalation is not an abstraction. It is money that has to come from somewhere.

Rende is not alone in feeling the squeeze. Across Ohio and beyond, American manufacturers who depend on imported materials or sell into neighboring markets are caught between rising input costs and customers who will only absorb so much price increase before they shop elsewhere. Sam Miller, who runs a kitchen and bathroom products company in Warren, Ohio, faces tariffs on materials he imports from Asia while simultaneously struggling to expand into Canada, where trade tensions have made doing business harder. When the Supreme Court struck down many of Trump's duties, Miller received refunds, but the administration has since reinstated most of them. The uncertainty itself is a cost—Miller had planned to open a distribution facility in Canada this year, but that project has stalled.

The tariff picture has grown more complicated by geopolitical events beyond trade policy. The U.S. war with Iran has driven up fuel prices and freight costs dramatically. Rende cited surcharges of more than $6,500 per container for goods arriving from suppliers, a direct consequence of elevated shipping expenses tied to Middle East tensions. Drone attacks in the region have also disrupted aluminum supplies. These cascading pressures have forced manufacturers to make hard choices. Rende has paused hiring for new positions and is investing instead in robotic assembly—a shift that means fewer jobs, not more. Other firms have downsized or lost customers outright.

Canada looms large in this equation. The country is Ohio's largest export market, absorbing roughly a third of the state's exports. When Washington and Ottawa imposed retaliatory tariffs on each other's goods after trade negotiations collapsed in August, the impact rippled through supply chains in ways that are still unfolding. Some goods cross the U.S.-Canada border multiple times during production, meaning tariffs compound at each crossing. Guy Coviello, president of the Youngstown Warren Regional Chamber of Commerce, which represents about 3,000 member businesses, described the situation as a "mixed bag" for firms but negative overall. He is watching three variables closely: tariffs, the Iran war, and immigration policy. All three, he said, are straining the region's manufacturers.

Coviello offered a nuanced view of tariff policy itself. He supports tariffs on critical goods—defense and medical products, for instance—where domestic production capacity matters for national security. But he pushed back on blanket duties on products that are neither essential nor available in sufficient quantity within the United States. With no new aluminum smelters operating domestically, tariffs on aluminum effectively protect nothing while raising costs for everyone downstream. The business community is not uniformly opposed to Trump's trade approach, but it is increasingly vocal about the gap between the stated goal of protecting American industry and the actual effect on manufacturers trying to compete and grow.

All of this is unfolding as midterm elections approach in November. Democrats see an opening. Grievances over tariff policy are among the fault lines they hope will shift voter sentiment, particularly in manufacturing-heavy states like Ohio. Rende himself expressed a loss of confidence not just in the administration but in the governmental process more broadly—in Congress's willingness to check executive power. Miller suggested he expects to see a shift away from Republican views among business owners. Whether that translates into votes remains to be seen, but the calculus is clear: manufacturers are hurting, jobs are being frozen or cut, and expansion plans are being shelved. The tariff wars that were meant to protect American industry are instead forcing American manufacturers to choose between raising prices, cutting payroll, or both.