In a world where two great powers have spent years trading economic blows, Donald Trump and Xi Jinping meet for three days not to forge a new order, but to prevent the existing fragile one from fracturing further. The summit, held amid elevated tariffs and deep mutual suspicion, is less a negotiation than a ritual of reassurance — a signal to markets, allies, and each other that the brink reached earlier this year will not be crossed again. History reminds us that the most consequential diplomatic moments are sometimes not the ones that announce change, but the ones that quietly forestall cata
Trump-Xi Summit Aims to Rebuild Trust Rather Than Seal Major Deals
This is not a bargaining summit. It's a stabilising summit.
Mark
So if they're not expecting major deals, what's the point of the summit at all?
Mimi
It's about preventing things from getting worse. The tariffs are still brutal—36.5 percent on average from the US side, 31 percent from China. They stepped back from threatening 200 percent levies, but that truce is fragile. This summit is about saying: we're not going to blow this up again.
Luke
But "fragile truce" is doing a lot of work there. What actually changed between October and now? Did either side make real concessions, or did they just both realize the cliff was too high?
Mimi
China resumed selling critical minerals after the October meeting. That's concrete. The US wants those shipments faster. There's talk of a Board of Trade mechanism to reduce tariffs on about $30 billion in goods each way.
Mark
That sounds like something. Why would experts call it just theater?
Mimi
Because $30 billion is a fraction of the total trade relationship, and because the underlying tensions haven't moved. AI cooperation, for instance—both sides want different things. The US sees it as a race it must win. China sees it as a tool for global influence.
Luke
Hold on. Has either side actually said they want to cooperate on AI, or is that just on the agenda because it sounds good?
Mimi
Treasury Secretary Bessent proposed an AI dialogue and a hotline for incidents. But Dexter Tiff Roberts at the Atlantic Council says the lack of trust will limit real deliverables. The US restricts chip sales to China. That's not the foundation for cooperation.
Mark
What about Taiwan? That seems like the thing that could actually blow up.
Mimi
Taiwan has been waiting months for a $14 billion arms sale approval. China wants the US to move closer to Beijing's position. Trump is unpredictable on this.
Luke
So we don't actually know what Trump will do on Taiwan. That's a gap in what we can predict from this summit.
Mimi
Exactly. Tiff Roberts said Trump is "a bit of a wild card." Taiwan is watching nervously.
Mark
And Iran?
Mimi
China has been holding off buying Iranian oil to help stabilize global prices during the US-Iran war. But that's temporary. Tiff Roberts said China is "delighted that the US is distracted" and won't volunteer help.
Luke
So China's restraint is tactical, not principled. When the US-Iran situation changes, so does China's calculation.
Mimi
That's the reading, yes.
The Pulse
- US and Chinese tariffs remain locked at 36.5% and 31% respectively — a fragile ceasefire that replaced threatened 200% levies and could unravel without active maintenance.
- The summit's agenda spans AI safety, critical minerals, Iran, and Taiwan — a constellation of flashpoints where distrust runs so deep that even dialogue carries risk.
- China has resumed critical mineral exports since the Busan truce, and Washington is pushing to accelerate those flows, with a possible Board of Trade mechanism to ease tariffs on $30 billion in goods.
- On AI, an American proposal for a bilateral hotline collides with a fundamental contradiction: the US frames AI as a competition to win, while China sees it as a soft power tool to export.
- Taiwan's pending $14 billion arms sale and Beijing's unification ambitions hang unresolved over every conversation, with Trump's unpredictability adding pressure to an already nervous Taipei.
- Experts expect the summit to end with ceremonial announcements rather than structural breakthroughs — its true measure will be whether the underlying tensions are contained, not resolved.
In a world where two great powers have spent years trading economic blows, Donald Trump and Xi Jinping meet for three days not to forge a new order, but to prevent the existing fragile one from fracturing further. The summit, held amid elevated tariffs and deep mutual suspicion, is less a negotiation than a ritual of reassurance — a signal to markets, allies, and each other that the brink reached earlier this year will not be crossed again. History reminds us that the most consequential diplomatic moments are sometimes not the ones that announce change, but the ones that quietly forestall catastrophe.
Donald Trump welcomed Xi Jinping with the full weight of diplomatic ceremony — red carpet, state banquet, military flyover — but beneath the pageantry, analysts were clear: this summit is about keeping a fragile peace intact, not building a new one.
The two countries have been locked in escalating economic conflict since Trump's first term, with tariffs, counter-tariffs, and semiconductor restrictions accumulating across two administrations. Trump's return to office brought the sharpest rupture yet — threats of 200% tariffs and Chinese counter-threats to cut off critical mineral exports. A partial truce was reached at the APEC summit in South Korea, but the scars remain. US tariffs on Chinese goods now average 36.5%; China's on American goods, 31%. Both sides remain heavily armed.
Academics framing the meeting are careful with their language. Reza Hasmath of the University of Alberta called it a "stabilising summit, not a bargaining summit." Mary Lovely of the Peterson Institute suggested the most realistic outcome is a modest Board of Trade mechanism allowing tariff reductions on roughly $30 billion in goods, alongside accelerated critical mineral shipments. The best case is small steps toward normalcy. The worst case is no common ground at all.
The harder issues resist easy diplomacy. On AI, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has proposed a bilateral dialogue and incident hotline, but structural distrust undermines the idea before it begins — the US has restricted chip exports to China and publicly frames AI as a race it must win. On Iran, China has quietly reduced oil purchases from Tehran in recent months, helping stabilize global prices, but analysts say Beijing has little incentive to sustain that restraint. And Taiwan — claimed by Beijing, defended by Washington, and waiting on a $14 billion arms sale — casts a long shadow over every conversation.
When the three days conclude, experts predict a handful of carefully worded announcements wrapped in ceremony. The cameras will leave. The structural competition between two enormous economies will not. The real measure of this summit will be whether it buys enough time for something more durable to take shape.
Donald Trump greeted Xi Jinping at the airport with ceremony—red carpet, state banquet, military flyover—the full apparatus of diplomatic theater. But beneath the pageantry, experts say this three-day summit is not about sealing deals. It is about keeping the peace from collapsing.
The US and China have been grinding against each other since Trump's first presidency, when he imposed tariffs on industrial goods and Beijing retaliated with levies on soybeans, pork, and electric vehicles. Those tensions carried forward under Joe Biden, who added his own restrictions, including curbs on semiconductor exports. But the real rupture came with Trump's return to office. He unleashed new tariffs on China—at one point threatening rates of 200 percent—and Beijing promised to match them while strangling exports of critical minerals essential to everything from smartphones to renewable energy systems. The two countries stepped back from that brink in late October during the APEC summit in South Korea, but the damage remains visible in the numbers. US tariffs on Chinese goods now average 36.5 percent. China's tariffs on American goods average 31 percent. Both sides are still heavily armed.
Reza Hasmath, an academic at the University of Alberta's China Institute, framed the summit plainly: "This is not a bargaining summit. It's a stabilising summit." The goal, according to Mary Lovely of the Peterson Institute of International Economics, is to "set up a continuation of the truce" reached in Busan. China has already resumed supplying critical minerals after that meeting, and the US wants those shipments accelerated. Lovely suggests there may be an announcement of a Board of Trade mechanism allowing both sides to reduce tariffs on roughly $30 billion worth of goods each. In the best case, she said, the two countries would begin liberalizing trade in non-sensitive goods and speed up mineral flows—small signs of normalcy. In the worst case, they find no common ground at all.
But several areas remain treacherous. Artificial intelligence cooperation sounds promising on paper. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has proposed a US-China dialogue and an AI hotline to report incidents that could threaten national security. Yet Dexter Tiff Roberts, a fellow at the Atlantic Council's Global China Hub, said mutual distrust will cripple any real progress. The US has restricted chip sales to China and repeatedly framed AI as a competition the US must win. China, meanwhile, views AI as a soft power tool to offer other nations and wants to shape global governance on its own terms.
On Iran, the picture is similarly complicated. China does not sell weapons to Tehran, but it does sell dual-use components and has historically purchased large quantities of Iranian oil—revenue that has kept Iran's economy functioning. In recent months, as the US-Iran war has intensified, China has held off those purchases and drawn on its strategic reserves instead, helping stabilize global oil prices. But that restraint may not last. Tiff Roberts said Beijing "is delighted that the US is distracted with its war in Iran" and will not volunteer help.
Taiwan looms over everything. China claims Taiwan as its own territory and wants the US to move closer to Beijing's position. Taiwan, which rejects unification, has been waiting months for Washington to approve a $14 billion arms sale. Tiff Roberts said Trump is "a bit of a wild card," and Taiwan is watching nervously. No one expects Trump to abandon Taiwan entirely, but the uncertainty itself is a form of pressure.
Experts agree the summit matters despite the modest expectations. The US-China trade relationship is enormous, with consequences rippling across the global economy. Trump, heading into midterm elections, wants to project international stature and command media attention. China needs a better trade relationship as its domestic economy weakens. But when the three days end, Hasmath predicted, there will be "a few not very meaningful announcements" wrapped in ceremony. The real work—rebuilding trust between two powers locked in structural competition—will continue long after the cameras leave.
Notable Quotes
This is not a bargaining summit. It's a stabilising summit.— Reza Hasmath, academic faculty adviser at The China Institute, University of Alberta
The point of the summit is to set up a continuation of the truce that was arrived at in Busan.— Mary E Lovely, senior fellow at the Peterson Institute of International Economics
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