Trump Weighs Iran Deal or Military Action as Pezeshkian Arrives at UN

President Trump arrived at the United Nations this week with a stark choice laid before Iran: negotiate a comprehensive deal that would allow the country to rebuild and potentially become one of the world's great powers, or face military annihilation so complete that the Islamic Republic would have no chance of survival, no hope of future generations, no path forward at all. He framed it as a binary decision he alone would make, and he made clear he was in what he called a "deciding mode."

Yet even as Trump issued this ultimatum from the General Assembly podium, his envoys were already in quiet talks with Iranian officials on the sidelines of the same gathering. Steve Witkoff, the U.S. special envoy, said the two sides had "engaged in lengthy talks" through mediators over the course of Tuesday, successfully completing what he described as a constructive round of discussions. Trump himself told reporters the meeting had gone "very good" and that another one was scheduled in the near future. Jared Kushner, Trump's son-in-law, participated alongside Witkoff. The president said the three-hour session ended about an hour before he spoke to reporters, and he expressed optimism that a settlement would be reached, though he offered no specifics about what that settlement might look like.

Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian arrived in New York late Tuesday night, stepping onto American soil for the first time since the war began in late February. He is the highest-ranking Iranian official to visit the United States during the conflict. Before departing Tehran, Pezeshkian vowed to "firmly defend" his country's positions at the General Assembly and to use the platform to convey Iran's grievances to the world. His communications team was denied U.S. visas in what Iranian state media called an "unprecedented hostile move," though Trump had said on Sunday he would "probably" be willing to meet with the Iranian president on the sidelines of the summit. A senior Iranian official told Reuters that Iran's delegation had been authorized by the country's supreme leader to revive diplomacy, but they ruled out a direct meeting at U.N. headquarters. Instead, the official indicated that Iran was offering to reopen the Strait of Hormuz—the vital waterway it has blockaded throughout the war—within a week if the United States lifted its naval blockade of Iranian ports and vessels and stepped back from military threats.

The diplomatic opening, however fragile, moved markets. Oil prices fell sharply on speculation that the two sides might make progress. Brent crude dropped below $100 a barrel for the first time in two weeks. Stock markets rose on the news, with investors betting that a potential deal could ease the energy crisis that has gripped global supply chains since the war began. The Nasdaq hit an all-time closing high on Monday, buoyed partly by enthusiasm over Meta's new AI agent, but the broader rally reflected hope that the Middle East conflict might be contained or resolved.

Trump's framing of the choice before Iran—deal or annihilation—came as the United States was tightening economic pressure on Tehran. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent warned that as of Wednesday, all Iranian airlines would be "shut down around the world." Countries that provided fuel, landing services, or sold tickets to Iranian carriers would be "knocked out of the dollar system," he said. Iraq announced it would suspend Iranian airline flights starting Tuesday at dawn. Iran Air said it had not received official notification of any ban, but the threat was clear. Saudi Arabia's crucial East-West pipeline, which had been damaged by drone strikes earlier in the month, was being brought back online, offering some relief to global oil supplies.

The war itself continued to expand and deepen. Nearly 130,000 Yemenis had been displaced by the escalating conflict between Saudi Arabia and the Iranian-backed Houthi rebels, according to the United Nations' International Organization for Migration. The figure had risen by more than 11,000 people in just three days. The Houthis, who control vast stretches of Yemen's Red Sea coastline and key islands in the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, have seized strategic territory in recent weeks and launched attacks on Saudi Arabia itself, including a ballistic missile strike on Riyadh on Saturday that was intercepted. In response, Saudi forces struck a prison in northwest Yemen, killing nine detainees, according to a Houthi official. The United Kingdom agreed to provide air-to-air refueling support to Saudi Arabia for several weeks. Trump had considered ordering U.S. strikes on Houthi positions over the weekend after Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman requested help, but decided against it late Saturday night, reluctant to expand the battlefield further.

The diplomatic track and the military pressure exist in tension. Trump said he believed a deal could be reached after the November midterm elections, though he also said he was not running in those elections and had already won in a landslide. Iran's Revolutionary Guard warned that any new U.S. assault would be met with an expansion of the war to new areas and new weaponry. The European Union's foreign affairs chief, Kaja Kallas, met with Iran's Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi and pressed for free passage through the Strait of Hormuz and an end to hostilities, but Araghchi criticized Europe for falling in line with U.S. pressure. Iran's parliament security committee approved new rules Tuesday fining ships 20 percent of their cargo's value for transiting the strait without authorization—a sign that even if talks succeed, the terms of any reopening remain contested. What happens next depends on whether the indirect talks can bridge the gap between Trump's ultimatum and Iran's conditions, or whether the military pressure will eventually overwhelm the diplomatic opening.