Everyone is digging in for a long fight ahead
After more than two and a half years of war, Ukraine's President Zelenskiy arrives in the United States next week carrying what he calls a 'Victory Plan' — a blueprint for ending the conflict on terms that preserve his nation's integrity. He will present it to Biden, Harris, and likely Trump, whose brief reply of 'Probably, yes' to a reporter's question marks the quiet weight of a meeting between a wartime leader and the man who may soon hold the world's most consequential office. Around them, the machinery of escalation turns steadily: Russia expands its army to 1.5 million troops, Europe braces for potential NATO confrontation within a decade, and a single Ukrainian drone strike on a distant Russian arsenal shook the earth hard enough for seismographs to notice.
- Zelenskiy's 'Victory Plan' arrives at a pivotal moment — a carefully guarded proposal meant to end the war without freezing it, now headed to the desks of the three most powerful figures in American politics.
- The Biden administration's hesitation over authorizing long-range missile strikes into Russia leaves Ukraine in a strategic limbo, waiting for a green light that keeps being discussed but never given.
- A Ukrainian drone strike on a weapons depot in Toropets — over 300 miles from the front — produced an explosion so vast that seismic stations registered it, signaling Ukraine's reach is longer and more disruptive than Moscow anticipated.
- Russia is not standing still: Putin has ordered the military expanded to 1.5 million active troops, and though Russia's Kursk counteroffensive has stalled, the Kremlin is clearly building for a long war.
- Europe is recalibrating its entire security posture — the EU's incoming defense commissioner warns that Putin could be ready for direct NATO confrontation within six to eight years, making military investment no longer optional.
- Britain's formal summoning of Russia's ambassador over espionage allegations adds another fracture line, reminding the world that this conflict's tremors are felt far beyond Ukrainian soil.
Donald Trump said Wednesday he would probably meet with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy when the latter arrives in the United States next week — a brief, unelaborated answer that nonetheless carries enormous significance. It would be their first face-to-face meeting since Trump left office in 2021.
Zelenskiy is traveling to address the UN Security Council and to present what he calls his 'Victory Plan' — a comprehensive proposal for ending the war while preserving Ukraine's position and avoiding a frozen conflict. He announced its completion on Wednesday after months of consultation, committing to share it with President Biden, Vice President Harris, and Trump. He has kept the specifics closely guarded, saying only that it establishes terms Ukraine can accept after more than two and a half years of fighting.
The Biden administration, meanwhile, remains undecided on one of Kyiv's most urgent requests: authorization to fire long-range Western missiles deep into Russian territory. Officials say they need more clarity on how Ukraine would deploy such weapons strategically — a hesitation that lingers even as Biden recently discussed the question with British Prime Minister Keir Starmer.
Ukraine demonstrated its existing reach dramatically this week. A drone strike on a weapons depot in Toropets — more than 300 miles from Ukraine and roughly 230 miles from Moscow — triggered an explosion so powerful that earthquake monitoring stations detected it. Pro-Russian military bloggers confirmed the target held missiles, ammunition, and explosives, making it one of the largest strikes on Russian military infrastructure since the invasion began.
Russia is preparing for a long war. Putin signed a decree expanding the military by 180,000 soldiers to a total of 1.5 million active troops — the second largest army in the world by that measure. In the Kursk region, where Ukraine has held territory seized in a surprise offensive over a month ago, Russia's attempt to retake ground has stalled, with Ukrainian forces repelling flanking attacks.
Europe is thinking in longer horizons. Andrius Kubilius, tapped to become the EU's first defense commissioner, warned that Putin could be ready for direct confrontation with NATO within six to eight years — a timeline that has accelerated defense spending and procurement to the center of the European agenda. Separately, Britain formally summoned Russia's ambassador to protest what it called an unprecedented campaign of aggression, including Moscow's claims that British diplomats were engaged in espionage. The diplomatic rupture is a reminder that the war's consequences have long since crossed Ukraine's borders.
Donald Trump said on Wednesday he would probably meet with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy when the latter arrives in the United States next week. The Republican candidate offered no elaboration when a reporter asked about the encounter, simply responding "Probably, yes." It will mark their first in-person conversation since Trump left office in 2021, though they spoke by phone in July.
Zelenskiy is coming to America to address the UN Security Council and to pitch what he calls his "Victory Plan"—a comprehensive proposal he says is designed to end the war while preserving Ukraine's strength and avoiding what he describes as frozen conflicts. He announced the plan's completion on Wednesday after months of consultation, and he has committed to presenting it to President Biden, Vice President Kamala Harris, and Trump during his visit. The Ukrainian leader has been careful not to reveal specifics, saying only that the plan aims to establish terms that work for Ukraine after more than two and a half years of fighting.
The Biden administration, however, remains uncertain about one of Ukraine's most pressing requests: permission to fire long-range Western missiles deep into Russian territory. U.S. officials have told Ukraine they need more detail about how Kyiv would deploy such weapons and how they fit into the broader military strategy. The hesitation comes a week after Biden discussed potentially loosening restrictions on these missiles with British Prime Minister Keir Starmer, suggesting the conversation is still unfolding at the highest levels.
Meanwhile, Ukraine struck a significant blow against Russian military capacity. A drone attack on a weapons depot in Toropets, a town more than 300 miles north of Ukraine and roughly 230 miles west of Moscow, caused an explosion so massive that earthquake monitoring stations detected it. Videos circulating on social media showed an enormous fireball rising into the night sky and successive detonations reverberating across a nearby lake. Pro-Russian military bloggers confirmed the target was an arsenal storing missiles, ammunition, and explosives—one of the largest strikes on Moscow's military infrastructure since the invasion began.
Russia, for its part, is preparing for a prolonged confrontation. Putin signed a decree this week ordering the military to expand its active forces by 180,000 soldiers, bringing the total to 1.5 million—making Russia's army the second largest in the world by active troop count. The expansion reflects Moscow's calculation that it needs a well-trained, substantial force for the years ahead.
In the Kursk region, where Ukraine launched a surprise offensive more than a month ago and has held significant territory, Russia attempted a counteroffensive to reclaim lost ground. A Ukrainian military spokesperson said on Wednesday that Moscow's attack had been "stopped," with Russian forces unable to break through even when they tried to strike from the flanks. Russia had claimed earlier in the month that it had retaken several villages, but the momentum appears to have stalled.
European officials are thinking even further ahead. Andrius Kubilius, a former Lithuanian prime minister tapped to be the EU's first defense commissioner, told Reuters that the continent must accelerate its military buildup. He cited agreement among defense ministers and NATO generals that Putin could be ready for direct confrontation with NATO and the EU within six to eight years. Kubilius's appointment reflects how thoroughly Russia's 2022 invasion has reshaped European security priorities, pushing defense spending and weapons procurement to the center of the EU's agenda.
Meanwhile, Britain summoned Russia's ambassador to lodge a formal protest. The British government condemned what it called an "unprecedented and unfounded public campaign of aggression," including Moscow's claims that six British diplomats were engaged in espionage. The Foreign Ministry said Russia's behavior violated the Vienna Convention on diplomatic relations. The diplomatic row underscores how the conflict has rippled far beyond Ukraine's borders, straining relationships across the Western alliance and forcing governments to prepare for scenarios that seemed unthinkable just years ago.
Notable Quotes
They tried to attack from the flanks, but they were stopped there— Oleksiy Dmytrashkivsky, Ukraine's military administration in Kursk
Defense ministers and NATO generals agree that Vladimir Putin could be ready for confrontation with NATO and the EU in six to eight years— Andrius Kubilius, EU's nominee for first defense commissioner
The Hearth Conversation Another angle on the story
Why does Trump's willingness to meet Zelenskiy matter right now, when they've barely spoken since 2021?
Because Trump could be president again in a few months, and Zelenskiy needs to know whether the next U.S. administration will support Ukraine's war effort or push for a settlement. A meeting signals Trump is at least willing to listen to the plan.
What's actually in this Victory Plan that Zelenskiy keeps talking about?
He hasn't said. That's the puzzle. He's been careful to keep it secret while building it, which suggests either he's still negotiating the details or he's waiting to see how different audiences react before committing to specifics.
The Biden administration won't authorize long-range missiles. Why is that hesitation significant?
Because Ukraine has been asking for months, and the U.S. keeps saying no or asking for more information. It suggests Washington is worried about escalation—that giving Ukraine those weapons might provoke Russia in ways that pull NATO directly into the fight.
That drone strike on the Russian weapons depot—how much damage are we talking about?
Big enough that earthquake sensors picked it up. That's not a small explosion. It's one of the largest strikes on Russian military infrastructure since the war started, which means Ukraine's long-range drone capability is becoming a real problem for Moscow.
Why is the EU suddenly talking about confrontation with Russia in six to eight years?
Because they're reading the same intelligence as NATO. Russia is expanding its army, modernizing, and preparing for a long conflict. Europe is realizing this isn't going to be over quickly, and they need to build up their own defenses now.
Does any of this suggest the war is ending soon?
The opposite. Russia is expanding its military, Ukraine is striking deeper into Russian territory, and Europe is preparing for a decade-long standoff. Everyone is digging in.