China has the upper hand for sure.
Two of the world's most powerful leaders meet in Beijing this week carrying the weight of a world in disruption — a Middle East war choking global shipping, a trade relationship fraying at its legal seams, and the perennial shadow of Taiwan. Donald Trump arrives with the language of friendship and the posture of a dealmaker, while Xi Jinping receives him from a position of quiet strategic advantage. History suggests that summits between great powers rarely deliver what their architects promise, but they often determine what becomes possible next.
- Trump landed in Beijing predicting a warm embrace from Xi, but analysts see a leader walking into a room where his counterpart holds most of the leverage.
- The Iran war — now in its third month with the Strait of Hormuz blockaded — looms over every conversation, threatening the global shipping lanes both economies depend on.
- America's rare earth stockpiles are depleting, its tariffs have been ruled largely illegal, and its bilateral talks with Tehran have stalled — leaving Washington with fewer cards than its rhetoric suggests.
- Both sides have deliberately lowered expectations, framing the summit as a relationship-stabilising exercise rather than a breakthrough moment, with a trade truce extension the most likely concrete outcome.
- Taiwan remains the sharpest fault line, with Beijing demanding rhetorical concessions on arms sales while Washington insists no policy shift is on the table.
Donald Trump arrived in Beijing this week with characteristic bravado, having promised supporters that Xi Jinping would greet him with a 'big, fat hug.' He also claimed China was pleased with American efforts to reopen the Strait of Hormuz — blockaded for three months now as the US-Iran war grinds on. Beneath the optimism, however, lies a relationship defined by compounding tensions: a stalled trade war, a Middle East conflict threatening global shipping, and the unresolved question of Taiwan.
The summit had already been delayed once, pushed back in March to create distance from the Iran conflict. That conflict has only deepened since, and it now dominates the agenda. Trump is expected to press Xi on China's ties to Tehran and whether Beijing can help break the stalemate. The difficulty is that China holds considerable leverage. American rare earth stockpiles are fast depleting, most of Trump's tariffs have been ruled illegal, and Chinese exports continue to surge. As one Beijing-based analyst put it plainly: from a short-term perspective, China has the upper hand.
Expectations on both sides have been deliberately managed downward. Analysts anticipate little beyond an extension of the trade truce sealed six months ago in Busan, perhaps with additional purchase orders for American agricultural goods and aircraft. What both leaders appear to want most is simply to stabilise the relationship — buying time for further negotiations later in the year.
Taiwan remains the deepest fracture. Chinese state media has described the island as 'the most sensitive red line in bilateral relations,' and Xi is expected to seek at least rhetorical softening from Trump on arms sales. Trump, who views himself as the relative dove on China policy within his own administration, has shown willingness to engage on personal terms — though American officials have briefed that no policy change is anticipated.
The question hanging over the entire summit is whether China will genuinely mediate on Iran or merely offer ceasefire rhetoric. US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has demanded Beijing pressure Tehran to reopen the Strait, while accusing China of sustaining Iran's economy through oil purchases. For Beijing, the calculus is real: roughly half its oil imports flow through the Middle East, and a prolonged blockade threatens its own economic lifelines. What Xi might demand in return for exercising that influence — on Taiwan, trade, or beyond — remains the summit's most consequential open question.
Donald Trump landed in Beijing this week with his characteristic confidence, having promised on Truth Social that Chinese President Xi Jinping would greet him with a "big, fat hug." The American president had also claimed that China was "very happy" about his efforts to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, the critical shipping lane now blockaded by both the United States and Iran as their war enters its third month. It was a bold prediction, the kind Trump has made before about his relationship with Xi—a friendship he has spent considerable energy promoting, sometimes with an admiration that borders on fawning. But beneath the rhetoric lies a landscape of deep tension: trade disputes, a grinding conflict in the Middle East, and the unresolved question of Taiwan, where the United States continues to supply weapons to an island China claims as its own.
The summit itself had already been delayed once, pushed back in March to create distance from the Iran conflict. Yet the war has only deepened since then, and it now looms large over the two-day talks. Trump is expected to press Xi hard on China's ties to Tehran and whether Beijing can help break the stalemate over the Strait. The problem, as analysts see it, is that China holds most of the cards. The United States is running low on rare earth minerals and critical materials—resources China controls. American bilateral negotiations with Iran have stalled. Trump's trade war, meanwhile, has unraveled: most of his tariffs have been ruled illegal, and Chinese exports continue to surge despite American protectionism. Chucheng Feng, who runs a Beijing-based research consultancy, put it plainly: "The US rare earths and critical mineral stockpile is also fast depleting. That also requires China's supply. If you really think about it from a short-term perspective, China has the upper hand for sure."
Expectations for the summit have been deliberately lowered by both sides. Analysts anticipate little beyond an extension of the trade truce that Xi and Trump sealed six months ago in Busan, South Korea, perhaps accompanied by additional purchase orders for American beef, soybeans, and Boeing aircraft. No major breakthroughs on economic policy are expected. No grand gestures. What matters instead, both leaders have signaled, is stabilizing the fragile relationship itself—buying time for further negotiations later in the year. Trump may not get his bear hug, but the personal rapport built on Xi's home turf could set the tone for at least two more meetings between them before year's end.
Taiwan remains the deepest fracture point. China's state media has made clear that the island is not simply one issue among many but "the core of China's core interests and the most sensitive red line in bilateral relations." Trump said on Monday that he planned to discuss arms sales with Xi, though American officials have already briefed reporters that no change in policy is anticipated. What Xi hopes to extract from the summit is rhetorical movement on Taiwan, a softening of American support that might signal a shift in the broader relationship. For Trump, the calculus is different. He views himself as the dove on China policy within his own administration, and he has shown a willingness to engage with Xi on terms that emphasize personal relationship over institutional pressure.
China's scholars and analysts have grown increasingly confident that Beijing can weather the "Trump shock," as some call it. They point to how China flexed its control over rare earth metals when the trade war escalated last year, forcing concessions. Zhao Minghao, an international relations expert at Shanghai's Fudan University, reflects a common view: "Put simply, Trump is not that bad for China. He is viewed as the dove on China policy in the White House." Yet there is also genuine concern in Beijing about the Iran situation. China's export-driven economy depends on open shipping lanes, and roughly half its oil imports and nearly a third of its liquefied natural gas imports flow through the Middle East. It took two months, but in April, Xi finally called for the Strait to be reopened—a position his Foreign Minister Wang Yi repeated when he hosted Iran's counterpart in Beijing last week.
The question hanging over the summit is whether China will actually mediate the conflict or merely offer ceasefire rhetoric from the sidelines. American Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, a key architect of the summit on the US side, has demanded that China "get the Iranians to open the strait" while accusing Beijing of funding terrorism by purchasing 90 percent of Iran's oil exports. There is considerable skepticism in Washington that Beijing wants to do more than talk. Yet for China, the cost of continued stalemate is real. The longer the blockade holds, the more it threatens the economic lifelines that sustain the country's growth. What Xi might demand in return for using his influence with Iran—whether on Taiwan, trade, or something else entirely—remains unclear as the two leaders prepare to meet. The summit will likely produce no dramatic breakthroughs, but the negotiations happening in the margins may reshape the contours of great-power competition for months to come.
Notable Quotes
China has the upper hand for sure—the US needs China's help on Iran, rare earths are depleting, and bilateral US-Iran talks are going nowhere.— Chucheng Feng, Beijing-based research consultant
Trump is not that bad for China. He is viewed as the dove on China policy in the White House.— Zhao Minghao, international relations expert at Fudan University
The Hearth Conversation Another angle on the story
Why did Trump delay the summit in the first place if he was so eager to see Xi?
He wanted to create some distance from the Iran war, to avoid having the conflict dominate the optics. But the war didn't end—it just kept going. So he's walking into Beijing with a much weaker hand than he probably hoped.
What does China actually want from this meeting?
On the surface, stability in the relationship. But underneath, Xi is hoping to shift Trump's position on Taiwan—either to get him to stop selling weapons to the island or at least to soften his rhetoric. That's the real prize.
And what does Trump want?
He needs China's help with Iran and he needs access to rare earth minerals. His trade war is falling apart legally. So he's the one who actually needs something concrete from Xi.
Does Xi have any leverage over Iran?
That's the question everyone's asking. China and Iran are economic partners, and China buys most of Iran's oil. But whether Xi is willing to use that leverage, and what he'd demand in return, is still unclear.
So the "big fat hug" Trump promised—that's not happening?
Xi doesn't do public displays of affection. And frankly, the geopolitical reality doesn't support it. This will be cordial, professional, focused on managing tensions rather than celebrating friendship.
What happens if they can't agree on anything?
They'll probably just extend the existing trade truce and schedule more meetings. Both leaders prefer to keep talking rather than let the relationship break down. But nothing fundamental gets resolved.