A pause is not peace. Threats have continued from both sides.
For the first time in nearly a decade, an American president arrives in Beijing this week carrying the weight of a global trade war that has never truly ended — only paused. Donald Trump and Xi Jinping meet from May 13 to 15 against a backdrop of tariffs that once exceeded 100 percent, rare earth leverage, and economies too intertwined to fully decouple. What unfolds in those three days will reveal whether two rival powers can move from fragile ceasefire toward something resembling a durable order — or whether the truce, seven months old and never quite settled, begins to unravel.
- Tariffs between the US and China once surpassed 100 percent, gutting Chinese export revenues and forcing American companies into a frantic search for alternative suppliers.
- China's economy — burdened by weak domestic spending, a property crisis, and high unemployment — remains dangerously dependent on American consumer markets, giving Washington real leverage even as Beijing holds rare earth minerals as a strategic trump card.
- The October truce bought time but resolved nothing: threats have continued from both sides, semiconductor restrictions remain partially in place, and a US trade court has already ruled Trump's broader tariffs legally questionable.
- Trump lands in Beijing with Boeing, Citigroup, and Qualcomm executives in tow, signaling a push for concrete purchase agreements on soybeans and aircraft — but China wants permanent tariff relief and full semiconductor access in return.
- The Iran conflict casts a long shadow over the talks, with China as Tehran's largest oil buyer and both powers holding sharply divergent views on how that war should end, threatening to pull the negotiations beyond trade into geopolitical confrontation.
Donald Trump arrives in China this week for the first presidential visit in nearly a decade, and the three days he spends there — May 13 to 15 — will test whether the world's two largest economies can move past a ceasefire that has held since October without ever becoming a peace.
The road to this moment runs through years of escalating economic hostility. When Trump first took office in 2017, he imposed sweeping tariffs on China, convinced America was being cheated in global trade. China, far more dependent on American consumers than the reverse, absorbed the blow badly — its economy already weakened by a property crisis, sluggish domestic spending, and rising unemployment. Biden, contrary to expectations, kept the pressure on and in some respects intensified it, restricting Huawei and effectively closing the US market to Chinese electric vehicles. When Trump returned in 2025, he went further still: a 20 percent fentanyl tariff, then a 34 percent Liberation Day levy. Beijing retaliated by targeting American agricultural goods — a direct strike at Trump's rural base. But Trump had underestimated one thing: China's monopoly on rare earth minerals, essential to everything from smartphones to fighter jets. That dependency forced both sides back to the table.
The October summit in South Korea produced a partial deal. Beijing suspended rare earth export controls. Washington rolled back some fentanyl-related tariffs and paused planned increases. China agreed to begin purchasing American agricultural goods and aircraft parts. Semiconductor restrictions were eased, though the most advanced chips remained off-limits. It was enough to stop the bleeding. It was not enough to heal the wound.
Now Trump arrives in Beijing flanked by executives from Boeing, Citigroup, and Qualcomm — a signal that business is the language of this visit. His administration wants expanded purchases of soybeans and aircraft. China wants permanent tariff relief and restored access to semiconductors. Neither side has answered the deeper question: what does fair trade between rival superpowers actually look like? A US trade court has already ruled Trump's broader tariffs legally unjustified, and the war in Iran — where China is the largest oil buyer — looms as a potential flashpoint beyond trade. The truce has lasted seven months. Whether it survives this week is far from certain.
Donald Trump is heading to China this week for the first presidential visit in nearly a decade, and what happens in those three days will determine whether the world's two largest economies can move beyond a temporary truce that has held, barely, since October.
The meeting, scheduled for May 13 to 15, arrives at a moment of genuine fragility. Last spring, Trump unleashed sweeping tariffs on trading partners worldwide. China bore the brunt of it. By the time both sides had finished retaliating, tariffs had climbed above 100 percent on certain goods. Warehouses filled with unsold inventory. American companies scrambled to find suppliers outside China. Chinese exporters watched their lifeline to the world's largest consumer market narrow to a thread. Then, in October, Trump and Xi met face-to-face in South Korea and agreed to pause the escalation. But pause is not peace. Threats have continued from both sides. The fundamental disagreements remain unresolved.
To understand how we arrived here requires stepping back to Trump's first term. He came to office in 2017 convinced that America was being cheated in global trade. He imposed tariffs on Mexico, Canada, Europe, and China—countries he said were exploiting American workers and shipping jobs overseas. For China, the shock was acute. At that moment, the country was far more dependent on American trade than America was on Chinese trade. The US was the destination for vast quantities of Chinese manufactured goods. If American consumers stopped buying because of tariffs, Chinese workers would pay the price. The timing was brutal. China's economy was already struggling with weak domestic spending, high unemployment, and a property sector in crisis. Exports to America were supposed to be the cushion. Suddenly that cushion was being pulled away.
When Joe Biden took office in 2021, many expected him to reverse Trump's tariffs. He did not. Instead, he kept the pressure on, convinced that the US needed to constrain China's growth in technology and other strategic sectors. Biden went further than Trump in some respects. He restricted Chinese tech companies like Huawei from operating in America. He imposed heavy tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles, effectively shutting them out of the US market. An economist at the University of Hong Kong observed that while Trump is often portrayed as the protectionist, Biden's record suggests he may have been even more so.
When Trump returned to office in 2025, he doubled down. He imposed a 20 percent tariff on China, citing the flow of fentanyl into the US. Then came what he called Liberation Day: a 34 percent levy on Chinese goods, among the highest rates applied to any country. The shock rippled through Chinese supply chains. Beijing retaliated swiftly, hitting American agricultural products with tariffs of its own—a direct blow to farmers, a core Trump constituency. But Trump had miscalculated one crucial thing. China controls the world's supply of rare earth minerals, materials essential for everything from smartphones to fighter jets. He could not afford to let that supply line break. Negotiation became necessary.
The October meeting produced a partial resolution. Beijing agreed to suspend export controls on rare earths. Trump announced that China would begin immediately purchasing American agricultural goods and aircraft parts. In return, Washington dropped some of the tariffs it had imposed over fentanyl precursors. Planned increases to reciprocal tariffs were paused. Restrictions on advanced semiconductor sales to China were partially lifted, though the most cutting-edge chips remained off-limits. It was enough to call it a truce. It was not enough to call it a settlement.
Now Trump arrives in Beijing with executives from Boeing, Citigroup, and Qualcomm in tow, signaling that business deals are on the agenda. But the structural tensions remain. China's economy depends on exports because domestic consumption is weak. It needs the American market more than any other single buyer. Yet Beijing enters these talks from a position of strength—it controls resources Trump cannot afford to lose. The Trump administration will push for larger purchases of soybeans and aircraft parts. China will want permanent relief from tariffs and the restoration of semiconductor sales. Neither side has given ground on the fundamental question: what does fair trade between these two powers actually look like? A US trade court recently ruled that Trump's latest global tariffs were not legally justified, opening the door to future legal challenges. And looming over everything is the war in Iran, where China is the largest buyer of oil and where both sides have competing interests but sharply different views on how the conflict should end. The truce has held for seven months. Whether it survives this week remains uncertain.
Notable Quotes
It was the first time they dealt with Trump seriously, and they probably did not expect him to go ahead with it.— Ning Leng, policy researcher at Georgetown University, on China's reaction to Trump's initial tariffs
We often think that Trump is tough on China, but there is an argument to say that Biden was even more protectionist than Trump was.— Tang Heiwai, economist at the University of Hong Kong
The Hearth Conversation Another angle on the story
Why does this meeting matter so much right now? They already paused things in October.
Because a pause is not a solution. Both sides are still threatening each other. The tariffs are still in place. Nothing permanent has been agreed to. This is the moment to either build something real or watch it collapse.
What's China's actual leverage here?
Rare earths. Trump needs those minerals for American industry and defense. China has a near-monopoly. That's why he had to negotiate in October instead of just escalating further. It's the one card Beijing holds that Trump cannot ignore.
So China is in a stronger position than it looks?
In some ways, yes. But it's a fragile strength. China's economy is weak. It needs to sell things abroad because people at home aren't spending. The US is still the biggest buyer. So both sides need each other, but in different ways.
What does Trump actually want from this visit?
More purchases of American agricultural products and aircraft parts. Those are the backbone of his political base—farmers especially. He wants to show he's winning deals. But he also needs to avoid a full trade war that would hurt American consumers and businesses.
And China?
China wants permanent tariff relief and access to semiconductors. It wants to know the tariffs won't suddenly spike again. It wants predictability so its businesses can plan. Right now everything feels temporary.
What could break this truce?
Iran. The war there is straining China's economy and energy supplies. If Trump and Xi can't find common ground on Iran, or if one side feels the other is taking advantage on trade, the whole thing could unravel. The truce is held together by mutual need, not trust.