Trump leverages control of Venezuela's oil to pressure Cuba, threatening to eliminate petróleo and financial aid that sustained the island for decades. Cuba faces unprecedented economic crisis: 88% extreme poverty, 15% inflation, collapsing infrastructure, and 11,268 protests in 2025 alone.
El HuffPost
· Jan 17, 2026
· security
· 16 min read
High
Sourcing: Characterized
Trump amenaza a Cuba con cortar petróleo venezolano tras tomar control de Caracas
At least 32 Cuban military personnel died in US military operation at Fort Tiuna in Caracas; widespread food insecurity affecting 1.4 million Cubans unable to meet daily caloric needs.
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Politics & Governance
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Geopolitical Impact
🌎
Trump leverages alleged US control of Venezuela to threaten Cuba with economic collapse by cutting Venezuelan oil supplies, demanding negotiations or facing consequences amid Cuba's worst crisis since 1959.
Escalation Risk
high
Confidence
MED
Cuba
Venezuela
Colombia
Mexico
Caribbean region
Latin America
US reasserting hemispheric dominance through control of Venezuelan resources; diminishing Cuban-Venezuelan alliance; potential shift toward US-aligned regional order; weakening of anti-US bloc in Caribbean; increased US leverage over regional governments.
Cuban Missile Crisis era tensions and Cold War US-Cuba hostility; Bay of Pigs invasion context; echoes of 1960s US economic embargo strategy against Cuba.
Economic Lens
📈
Trump threatens Cuba with economic collapse by cutting Venezuelan oil supplies under US control, exploiting Cuba's energy dependence amid its worst crisis since 1959.
Market Signal
bearish
Confidence
MED
Energy/Oil
International Trade
Government/Politics
Transportation
Manufacturing
Cuban households face severe energy shortages, potential blackouts, and further economic deterioration. Regional energy prices may increase. Latin American economies dependent on Venezuelan trade could experience disruption.
Potential US sanctions expansion, geopolitical realignment in Latin America, possible humanitarian crisis triggering international diplomatic responses, and increased pressure on regional governments to align with US foreign policy objectives.