Three TSX Dividend Stocks Offer Bargain Entry Points for Long-Term Investors

Buy when others are selling, hold through recovery
The core logic for investors considering these three dividend stocks during a market downturn.
Mark

Why should someone buy these stocks now instead of waiting to see if they fall further?

Mimi

Because you can't time the bottom. What you can do is buy a business you'd be happy to own for twenty years, at a price that gives you a decent income while you wait. All three of these companies have proven they can raise their dividends through cycles. That's the real return.

Mark

But the market is still falling. Isn't that a sign these companies are in trouble?

Mimi

Not necessarily. TD is making billion-dollar acquisitions in the U.S. That's not what a company in trouble does. TC Energy's business model is almost immune to oil price swings—it just collects fees for moving stuff. Suncor had a rough pandemic, yes, but fuel demand is back and oil is higher than it was two years ago.

Mark

What's the risk here? Why would these stocks have fallen so much?

Mimi

Broad market panic. Rising interest rates. People selling everything to raise cash. None of that changes the fact that TD has a 27-year track record of raising dividends, or that TC Energy has the infrastructure for a structural shift toward natural gas exports.

Mark

If I buy now, what am I actually betting on?

Mimi

You're betting that the market overreacted. That these three companies will keep doing what they've always done—pay dividends, grow those dividends, and eventually the stock price catches up. You're not betting on a quick pop. You're betting on patience.

Mark

How long is patience?

Mimi

Years, probably. But if you're using a TFSA or RRSP, you have time. And the dividend is paying you to wait.

  • A punishing market correction had driven TD Bank, TC Energy, and Suncor down 20–30% from their 2022 highs, stripping billions in paper value from otherwise healthy businesses.
  • TD Bank's aggressive U.S. expansion — a $13.4 billion acquisition and a separate investment banking deal — signaled ambition at precisely the moment the market was pricing in retreat.
  • TC Energy's fee-based pipeline model insulated it from commodity price swings, yet the stock fell anyway, pushing its yield to 6.25% and widening the gap between perception and underlying value.
  • Suncor carried the scar of a pandemic-era dividend cut, but new management was selling assets, paying down debt, and rebuilding shareholder trust with a payout now above pre-COVID levels.
  • All three stocks were converging toward the same thesis: the selloff had been indiscriminate, the businesses remained intact, and the entry prices of October 2022 carried the quiet logic of long-term compounding.

In the autumn of 2022, a broad market selloff pressed three pillars of the Toronto Stock Exchange — TD Bank, TC Energy, and Suncor — to prices that patient capital had long been waiting for. Each company carried the weight of real assets, durable cash flows, and histories of rewarding shareholders through cycles of fear and recovery. The moment was less a crisis than an invitation: to buy what endures at the price that doubt creates.

By mid-October 2022, the Toronto Stock Exchange had handed patient investors something rare — established, dividend-paying companies trading at prices that bore little resemblance to their underlying strength. TD Bank, TC Energy, and Suncor had each been swept lower by a broad market rout, and each told a different story about why the selling had gone too far.

TD Bank had dropped to just under $86 from $109 earlier in the year, even as it raised its dividend by 13 percent and pursued an ambitious push into the American market. A $13.4 billion deal for retail bank First Horizon would place TD among the top six U.S. banks, while a separate acquisition of investment bank Cowen deepened its capital markets reach. Since 1995, TD had grown its dividend at roughly 11 percent annually — the kind of record that turns a 4 percent yield into something far more powerful over time.

TC Energy operated in a quieter corner of the energy world. Rather than extracting oil or gas, it owned the infrastructure that moved those commodities — pipelines, storage facilities, transmission networks. Its revenues came from fees, not commodity prices, which meant market volatility barely touched its cash flow. With natural gas demand rising and liquified natural gas exports poised to grow, TC Energy's existing and under-construction infrastructure positioned it well. Its stock had fallen from $74 to $57.50, lifting its yield to 6.25 percent.

Suncor's story required more patience. The company had cut its dividend in half during the pandemic while peers held firm, a decision that lingered in investor memory. But management had since restored the payout beyond pre-pandemic levels, oil had recovered to around $86 per barrel, and fuel demand had returned to 2019 norms. New leadership was selling non-core assets and reducing debt, clearing the path for future dividend growth. At $44 per share and a 4.25 percent yield, the stock appeared to be priced for a past that no longer existed.

The common thread across all three was straightforward: mature businesses with real assets and real cash flows, caught in a selloff that did not distinguish between the fragile and the durable. For investors willing to hold through the noise, the dividends would compound and the market would, in time, remember what these companies were actually worth.

The market had turned brutal by mid-October 2022, and that brutality was creating an opening for patient investors. Three established names on the Toronto Stock Exchange—TD Bank, TC Energy, and Suncor—had all been hammered down to prices that looked, on paper at least, like genuine bargains. The question wasn't whether these were good companies. It was whether the selling had gone too far.

TD Bank had fallen to just under $86 per share, down from $109 earlier that year. The bank had raised its dividend by 13 percent for the fiscal year and showed no signs of stopping. Since 1995, TD had increased its payout at a compound annual rate of roughly 11 percent—the kind of consistency that turns a modest yield into real money over decades. At current prices, the stock offered a 4 percent yield. More importantly, the bank was making aggressive moves south of the border. It had committed $13.4 billion to acquire First Horizon, a retail bank that would vault TD into the top six of the American market. A separate $1.3 billion deal for Cowen, an investment bank, was meant to strengthen its capital markets arm. These weren't defensive moves. They were bets on growth.

TC Energy operated differently from most energy stocks. The company didn't pump oil or gas from the ground. Instead, it owned and operated the pipes and storage facilities that moved those commodities from production sites to refineries, utilities, and liquified natural gas terminals. For this service, it collected fees. The structure meant that wild swings in commodity prices barely touched the company's revenue or cash flow. TC Energy's real business was natural gas transmission and storage, and demand for that was rising across North America. The company had infrastructure already in place or under construction to capture the anticipated surge in liquified natural gas exports to international buyers. The stock had fallen to $57.50 from $74 in June, and at that depressed price it yielded 6.25 percent.

Suncor had endured a harder road. The company had slashed its dividend by half during the pandemic while competitors held steady. Since then, management had clawed back those cuts and pushed the payout above pre-pandemic levels. The stock was trading at $44 per share—roughly where it had sat before COVID arrived. Fuel demand had recovered to 2019 levels, and oil was trading around $86 per barrel compared to $60 in early 2020. The math suggested the stock was undervalued. New management was selling non-core assets to unlock value and paying down debt at a meaningful pace, which should free up cash for future dividend increases. At current prices, Suncor offered a 4.25 percent yield.

All three stocks shared a common thread: they were mature, dividend-paying businesses that had been caught in a broad market selloff. Whether you held them in a Tax-Free Savings Account or a Registered Retirement Savings Plan, the logic was the same. Buy when others were selling, hold through the recovery, and let the dividends compound. The market would eventually remember that these companies had real assets, real cash flow, and real reasons to exist. When it did, the entry prices available in October would look like a gift.

TD raised the dividend by 13% for fiscal 2022, with another generous increase expected despite economic headwinds
— Investment analysis
TC Energy's fee-based model means volatility in oil and gas prices has limited direct impact on revenue and cash flow
— Business model description
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