The data case for Gakpo: Why Spurs see elite potential beyond Liverpool's reluctance

Roberto de Zerbi is building something at Tottenham, and he has his eye on Cody Gakpo. The Liverpool forward has become a target for the north London club as the Italian manager continues reshaping his squad, though any move would face serious obstacles. Liverpool are not eager to let him go, especially after Mohamed Salah's departure and with Hugo Ekitike still working his way back from an Achilles injury. The Reds are themselves chasing Paris St-Germain's Bradley Barcola, but even if that deal comes off, losing Gakpo would strip them of one of their most battle-tested attackers.

On paper, Gakpo looks like a straightforward left winger. In practice, he is something more useful. The Dutch international has spent most of his Liverpool career on the left flank, but de Zerbi sees him as a player who can operate through the middle—dropping between the lines to link play, releasing runners, vacating central spaces to create room for others. That flexibility aligns perfectly with how de Zerbi builds his teams. Rather than anchoring a traditional striker in the box, he asks his centre forward to move, combine with midfielders, and open lanes for wide players to attack. Gakpo has the technical quality and positional intelligence to do that work. He would also provide cover on the left, giving Tottenham insurance across multiple positions in a way that Dominic Solanke and Mathys Tel, both natural centre forwards, cannot match.

The numbers tell a story that last season's seven Premier League goals do not. Gakpo remained one of Europe's most dangerous wide forwards in terms of creating scoring chances. Only seven wingers across the continent's top five leagues averaged more touches in the opposition penalty area than his 2.2 per 90 minutes. He ranked inside the top 10 for open-play shots and chances created. His percentile rankings among positional peers are striking: 98th for shot frequency, 96th for advanced involvement, 91st for box threat. Very few wide players found themselves in dangerous attacking situations more regularly. That aggression came from his willingness to attack space behind defences. He was caught offside 30 times in the Premier League last season—more than any other player—because he constantly looked to run beyond the last defender in search of goals rather than waiting for the ball at his feet.

When comparing Gakpo to Tottenham's current forward options, the gap widens. Last season he finished with an expected-goals total of 8.59, took 87 shots, recorded five assists, and created 10 big chances. Richarlison scored more league goals but attempted 26 fewer shots and created only half as many big chances. Solanke, hampered by injury, managed just 20 shots and one big chance created. Tel fell short across several key attacking measures. Even Randal Kolo Muani, who spent the season on loan at Spurs before joining Juventus, trailed Gakpo's output. The difference extends beyond goals. Gakpo recorded 187 touches in the opposition penalty area compared with 125 for Richarlison, 68 for Tel, and 55 for Solanke. His 4.17 expected assists from open play was comfortably the highest among the group, showing his ability to create chances as well as find them himself.

Gakpo also brings defensive value. He regained possession 87 times, including 45 in the middle third, and made 13 interceptions—all higher than Richarlison, Tel, and Solanke. His broader profile reflects that range. He ranks in the 78th percentile for link-up play, the 75th for pass progression, and the 67th for creative threat, showing comfort in tight spaces and contributing to build-up play. At 6 feet 4 inches, he provides a physical presence uncommon among wide forwards. He ranks in the 96th percentile for aerial volume compared with positional peers across Europe's top five leagues, meaning only about 4 percent of wingers contest aerial balls at a higher rate. That gives de Zerbi another route against deep defensive blocks—diagonal passes, back-post crosses, or more direct balls when opponents restrict Spurs' build-up play.

Liverpool's reluctance to sell makes complete sense. Despite frustration with his performances at times last season, Gakpo remains one of the squad's few established forwards. Losing both him and Salah in the same window would significantly reduce their attacking depth, particularly while Ekitike recovers. Even if the Reds land Barcola, much would rest on newcomer Victor Munoz and 17-year-old Rio Ngumoha, making Gakpo's proven quality difficult to replace. The Reds also know what they have. Since arriving from PSV Eindhoven in January 2023, Gakpo has scored seven, eight, ten, and seven league goals across his four seasons at Anfield while adding regular creative contributions. Since November 2024, only Salah has scored more Premier League goals for Liverpool than Gakpo's 17. His output has remained remarkably consistent despite playing under different managers and in multiple attacking roles.

For Tottenham, that combination of reliability and multi-positional value is the draw. Seven league goals may not leap off the page, but the underlying metrics tell a different story. Gakpo continues to generate chances at an elite rate, gets into dangerous positions more frequently than almost any winger in Europe, and offers tactical flexibility few forwards can match. Whether Tottenham can persuade Liverpool to part with one of their most seasoned attackers remains uncertain. But if de Zerbi is looking for someone capable of playing across the front line while consistently threatening the opposition goal, the data offers a compelling case for why Spurs are knocking on the door.