Taliban Face Growing Insurgent Pressure Five Years After Return to Power

Five years to the day before the Taliban's August 15 anniversary of returning to power in Afghanistan, the regime faced a moment it had not experienced since 2021: the loss of a district center. The Yaftal-e Payeen capital in Badakhshan province, in the country's northeast, slipped from Taliban control in mid-August 2026. The disruption was brief, but its symbolic weight was not. For five years, the Taliban had staked their legitimacy on a single claim—that they could deliver security where the previous government could not. A district center changing hands, even temporarily, suggested that claim was fraying.

The loss came amid other signs of strain. Reports from Badakhshan described internal fighting among Taliban fighters and assassinations of high-ranking Taliban officials. Two weeks after the district fell, former Afghan army general Sami Sadat, speaking from the United States where he has lived since the Taliban takeover, released a video announcing that he had ordered military operations against the Taliban across the country. Sadat's move was not isolated. The National Resistance Front, led by the son of the late commander Ahmad Shah Massoud, had been waging armed struggle since 2021. Other factions had emerged as well. None had yet posed an existential threat to Taliban rule, but experts began asking whether the Badakhshan clashes might signal a turning point. "In these five years, this opposition existed in two forms: political and military," former Afghan Interior Minister Mohammad Umer Daudzai told Deutsche Welle. "As the five-year mark approaches, both forms of opposition have taken shape."

The Taliban's grip on power rests on a foundation that is narrowing. Since taking control in August 2021, they have ruled with severity. Women have been barred from work and education beyond sixth grade, and are largely confined from public life. Basic human rights protections have been stripped away. Most former government officials are in exile. The Taliban insist that all Afghans are free to return and live ordinary lives, but opponents counter that return is meaningless without the right to political activity. Internationally, the regime remains isolated—only Russia has recognized the Taliban as Afghanistan's legitimate government. Facing pressure from within and without, the Taliban have repeatedly pointed to restored security as their primary justification for rule. Yet experts warn that their governing approach may be doing the opposite. "If this policy of the Taliban continues, armed forces will emerge against them, opposition will emerge, interference from neighbors will arise, and ultimately the ground will be prepared for proxy wars," former Acting Minister of Defense Shahmohammad Miakhel told DW.

Beyond political opposition, the Islamic State's regional branch remains active in Afghanistan. In January, an explosion at a Chinese restaurant in central Kabul killed at least seven people. In December 2024, a suicide bombing in the capital killed the Taliban's Minister of Refugees, Khalil Ur-Rahman Haqqani. These attacks have demonstrated that the Taliban face threats not just from Afghan resistance groups but from transnational militant organizations.

The most consequential challenge to Taliban control may come from across the border. Afghanistan and Pakistan, once close allies of the Taliban, have descended into open hostility since 2021. The tension erupted into full clashes in 2026. According to a United Nations report from May, cross-border fighting during the first three months of 2026 killed at least 372 Afghan civilians and injured nearly 400 more. The Taliban accuse Pakistan of supporting insurgent groups and providing them refuge. Taliban spokesman Zabihullah Mujahid told DW that hostile elements had been invited to Islamabad and were now seeking offices and safe havens there. When asked for evidence, Mujahid provided none.

Pakistan tells a different story. The country accuses the Taliban of harboring the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan, a militant group that has carried out attacks on Pakistani soil. Pakistan denies supporting Afghan insurgents and instead claims it is targeting Taliban military sites and hideouts used by militant groups. "Islamabad has used all its options, including regional diplomacy and direct communication, but nothing has been honored," security expert Qamar Cheema told DW in February. "As a neighboring Muslim country, Pakistan appears to inflict damage in an attempt to alter Taliban behavior."

Former defense ministry spokesperson Mohammad Radmanish suggested that the timing of Sadat's announcement from America was itself revealing. "When Mr. Sami Sadat issues such an order from America to those who must fight the Taliban, he has certainly seen a green light," Radmanish told DW. "In Afghanistan, no group and no one can carry out any activity without the support of one or more foreign countries." The implication was clear: the insurgency was not spontaneous but orchestrated by external powers. Whether Pakistan is directly coordinating with Afghan resistance groups remains disputed, but the pattern is unmistakable. Five years after the Taliban's return, Afghanistan is beginning to look like a stage for proxy conflict—a place where neighboring powers, exiled Afghan factions, and transnational militant groups are testing the Taliban's ability to hold what they have taken.