Sweden's razor-thin election could hand far right its first government role

Sweden's voters will head to the polls on Sunday to decide between two starkly different futures for their country, and the margin separating them is almost imperceptible. The latest polling data shows just three-tenths of a percentage point between the left-leaning and right-leaning blocs—a gap so narrow that it could evaporate entirely by election night. If the numbers hold, Magdalena Andersson's centre-left Social Democrats would secure 175 seats in parliament, while Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson's right-wing coalition would claim 174. The stakes are not merely about which party forms the next government. They are about whether Sweden's far-right Sweden Democrats will enter ministerial office for the first time in the country's modern history.

Kristersson broke a longstanding political taboo in 2022 when he struck a deal with the Sweden Democrats to prop up his minority coalition. That agreement gave the far-right party outsized leverage over policy, particularly on crime and immigration. Now, as he seeks another term, Kristersson has gone further still, explicitly promising ministerial positions to the Sweden Democrats if voters return him to power. The party's leader, Jimmie Åkesson, would gain real executive authority—not merely the ability to block legislation from the sidelines, but the power to shape it from within government.

What troubles legal and civil rights experts is not just the Sweden Democrats' ideology, but what their ascent signals about Sweden's place in the world. For decades, the country cultivated a reputation as a global standard-bearer for human rights and the rule of law. That image has already taken damage. Over the past four years, under the current government's policies, Sweden has deported teenagers, lowered the age of criminal responsibility, and sent fourteen-year-olds to adult prisons. John Stauffer, legal director at Civil Rights Defenders, notes that the Sweden Democrats harbor no ambition to preserve Sweden's human rights legacy. Their manifesto pledges to introduce legislation against what they call "anti-Swedish sentiment," revoke permanent resident permits, and slash immigration further. Their campaign slogan—"make Sweden Sweden again"—carries an unmistakable nativist edge.

Stauffer warns that if the right wins and the Sweden Democrats enter government, the erosion will likely accelerate. The party does not view Sweden as an important player in advancing human rights frameworks globally. Instead, it sees immigration restriction and cultural nationalism as the proper focus of state power. "For some time Sweden has been seen as the exception," Stauffer said, referring to the country's former standing. That exceptionalism is fading. A Social Democratic victory would not reverse the hardline policies already in place—Andersson's party has itself shifted rightward on crime and immigration to compete for voters—but it might at least slow further deterioration.

The election unfolds against a broader European backdrop. Germany's far-right Alternative für Deutschland recently surged to first place in key state elections. Marine Le Pen leads French presidential polling. Sweden's vote will test whether the far-right has exhausted its appeal or whether it can deepen its grip on power. Political scientist Bo Petersson at Malmö University observes that mainstream Swedish parties have already adopted the Sweden Democrats' restrictive immigration stance, leaving the far-right less room to claim uniqueness. Yet Kristersson's willingness to offer them ministerial posts suggests they have become indispensable to any right-wing coalition.

With the race so tight, smaller parties could prove decisive. The Liberals, a tiny coalition partner whose leader has recently cultivated a relationship with Åkesson, may determine whether the right can form a government. On the left, turnout among Centre Party voters could shift the balance. The Centre Party has gained ground in Stockholm and hopes to become the second-largest party if momentum holds. Healthcare, law and order, immigration, and economic management dominate voter concerns. After heated televised debates between party leaders, results will arrive Sunday night, though forming an actual government could take weeks or months of negotiation. What happens in those negotiations—whether Kristersson's coalition partners accept the Sweden Democrats as full partners or whether internal doubts surface—will shape not just Swedish politics but the country's international standing for years to come.