Across the arc of this century, the boundary between the habitable and the parched is quietly redrawing itself. New research from the Chinese Academy of Forestry projects that drylands — regions where water scarcity constrains both plant life and human settlement — could claim more than 40 percent of Earth's land surface by 2100, an expansion equivalent to the entire territory of Algeria. The burden will fall unevenly, pressing hardest on Australia, Brazil, and parts of Africa, even as a counterintuitive grace note emerges: rising CO2 may be slowing the advance by causing plants to conserve wa
ScienceAlert
· Sep 08, 2026
· environment
· 3 min read
High
Sourcing: Verified
Study: Earth's Drylands Could Cover 40% of Land by 2100
Expansion of drylands threatens water scarcity and ecosystem degradation affecting populations dependent on currently humid regions, particularly in Australia, Brazil, and Africa.
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Bias & Framing
⚖
Article presents climate science findings on dryland expansion with balanced reporting, though emphasizes negative impacts while noting a counterintuitive CO2 benefit.
Bias Direction
center-left
Confidence
MED
Problem-solution framing with scientific authority. Opens with alarming projections, emphasizes ecological threats, then introduces a mitigating factor (CO2 effects) to appear balanced. Uses urgency language ('expected to get even drier,' 'killing off plant life') before presenting research methodology.
expected to get even drier
killing off plant life no longer able to cope
creep forward
aggravate water scarcity
ecological vulnerability
challenges to global sustainable development
Perspectives from economists on adaptation costs vs. benefits
Views from affected communities in Australia, Brazil, and Africa
Counterarguments or uncertainty ranges from climate skeptics
Discussion of potential human adaptation strategies beyond climate mitigation
Regional stakeholder voices on land use implications
Geopolitical Impact
🌎
Climate modeling projects drylands expanding to 40% of Earth's land by 2100, with Australia, Brazil, and Africa most affected, creating resource scarcity and geopolitical competition for water and arable land.
Escalation Risk
high
Confidence
HIGH
Australia
Brazil
Sub-Saharan Africa
Middle East
Central Asia
Mediterranean region
Southern Europe
Parts of China
India
Shift toward resource-based geopolitical competition; nations with secure water/agricultural capacity (Canada, Russia, Scandinavia) gain relative influence; climate-vulnerable regions (Africa, Middle East, parts of Asia) face economic decline and migration pressure; potential realignment around water-rich territories and climate migration corridors.
Similar to 1930s Dust Bowl and desertification-driven conflicts (Sahel droughts, Syrian drought 2006-2010), but at unprecedented global scale, potentially triggering mass migration, resource wars, and state fragility in vulnerable regions.
Economic Lens
📈
Projected 40% dryland expansion by 2100 threatens agriculture, water security, and economic stability in vulnerable regions, with significant implications for global food systems and resource competition.
Market Signal
bearish
Confidence
MED
Agriculture and food production
Water utilities and management
Real estate and land values
Mining and natural resources
Tourism and hospitality
Energy production
Insurance and risk management
Consumers face potential food price increases, water scarcity and higher utility costs, reduced agricultural productivity in affected regions, and potential climate migration pressures affecting housing markets and labor availability.
Governments will likely increase climate adaptation spending, implement water conservation regulations, subsidize drought-resistant agriculture, establish migration policies, and coordinate international agreements on resource sharing and climate mitigation strategies.