The future is undercutting the present.
At gas pumps across America, a number that once seemed unthinkable has become ordinary: five dollars a gallon, a record that arrived not as a sudden rupture but as the final step in a long, grinding climb. The forces behind it — a war in Europe, a pandemic that hollowed out refining capacity, and a world economy that came roaring back faster than supply could follow — are not easily reversed. For millions of households, especially those with the least margin, the pump has become a place where global events are felt in the most personal terms.
- The national average crossed $5 a gallon for the first time ever, with California at $6.43 and even the cheapest state averaging well above $4 — numbers that would have seemed extreme just two years ago.
- Russia's invasion of Ukraine and the sanctions that followed pulled a major oil producer from global markets, and the EU's coming ban on Russian oil threatens to tighten supply even further.
- U.S. refining capacity has fallen by 900,000 barrels per day since 2019, and refineries are closing rather than expanding — making the release of strategic reserves largely ineffective since there isn't enough capacity to turn crude into gasoline.
- The lowest-income households may spend up to 38% of their earnings on energy this year, a burden falling hardest on workers who cannot work remotely and must commute no matter what the pump reads.
- Every political remedy — more drilling, new pipelines, diplomatic outreach to Saudi Arabia or Venezuela — carries costs measured in time, principle, or both, leaving ordinary drivers as the only near-term force capable of moving prices down.
On a Saturday morning in Brooklyn, Nick Schaffzin watched the pump tick past $5.45 a gallon and did the math out loud: gas isn't optional the way a vacation is. That same morning, the national average crossed $5 for the first time on record. California was averaging $6.43. Even Mississippi, the cheapest state, sat at $4.52.
The record didn't arrive suddenly. When the pandemic collapsed demand in 2020, gas fell below $1.80. Then the economy recovered, driving resumed, and prices followed — past $3, past $4, and finally past $5 in a long, grinding ascent shaped by forces that are difficult to unwind. Global crude has roughly doubled since December, pushed higher by Russia's invasion of Ukraine and the sanctions that followed. The EU's pledge to ban most Russian oil by year's end is expected to tighten supply further.
Making matters worse, the United States has lost 900,000 barrels per day of refining capacity since 2019. Refineries that closed during the pandemic never reopened, and others are declining to invest in expansion given the long-term shift toward electric vehicles. When President Biden tapped the Strategic Petroleum Reserve in March, prices rose another 77 cents anyway — releasing crude doesn't help much when there isn't enough capacity to refine it.
The political options are all slow or costly. More drilling, restored pipeline permits, diplomatic appeals to Saudi Arabia or Iran — each takes months or years and carries its own weight. Biden has already framed the ban on Russian oil as the price of not funding a war.
The burden falls unevenly. The bottom fifth of American households could spend 38 percent of their income on energy this year, up from 27 percent in 2020 — workers in retail and fast food who must commute regardless of what the pump says. At the Brooklyn station, film worker George Chen said he'd pass costs on to clients, and acknowledged he was among the fortunate. The families without that flexibility, he said, were the ones he worried about.
Analysts see no clear fix on the horizon. The only lever that seems immediately available belongs to drivers themselves — and at what price they'll pull back hard enough to move demand, and eventually prices, downward remains an open question.
At a BP station in Brooklyn on a Saturday morning, a man named Nick Schaffzin stood at the pump watching the numbers climb. He was paying $5.45 a gallon. He blamed Vladimir Putin, said he'd cut back on vacations and discretionary spending, and offered a simple calculus for why he'd keep paying: gas, unlike a vacation, isn't optional.
That same morning, the national average for a gallon of regular gasoline crossed $5 for the first time on record, according to AAA, which has tracked pump prices for decades. The number had jumped 18 cents in a single week and sat nearly two dollars higher than it had a year before. In California, drivers were averaging $6.43 a gallon. Even in Mississippi, the cheapest state in the country, the average was $4.52.
The climb to this point has been years in the making. When the pandemic first hit in April 2020, demand collapsed so fast that gas fell below $1.80 a gallon. Then the economy came back, people started driving again, and prices followed. By May 2021 the national average had reached $3. By March of this year it had blown past $4. The record set last Saturday was not a sudden shock — it was the latest step in a long, grinding ascent.
Several forces converged to push prices to this level, and none of them are easy to unwind. Global crude oil prices have roughly doubled since December, with the U.S. benchmark closing above $120 a barrel on the Friday before the record was set. Russia's invasion of Ukraine and the sanctions that followed removed a major oil-producing nation from the global market. The European Union has pledged to ban most Russian oil by year's end, which analysts expect will tighten supply further, not ease it.
At the same time, the United States has lost significant capacity to turn crude into usable fuel. American refining output is down 900,000 barrels per day compared to the end of 2019, according to the Energy Department. Some refineries that shuttered during the pandemic's demand collapse never reopened. Others are choosing not to invest in expanded capacity because the long-term shift toward electric vehicles makes new refinery infrastructure look like a bad bet. In April, the owner of one of the country's largest refineries, located in Houston, announced it would close the facility entirely by the end of next year.
President Biden tapped the Strategic Petroleum Reserve in late March specifically to bring prices down. Since that announcement, the average price per gallon has risen 77 cents. Analysts attribute much of that continued climb to the refining bottleneck — releasing crude from reserves doesn't help much if there isn't enough refinery capacity to process it into gasoline.
The political options are all uncomfortable. Republicans have pushed Biden to open more federal land to drilling and to restore the permit for a pipeline that would carry Canadian oil to Gulf Coast refineries — steps that would take months or years to affect supply and that would draw fierce opposition from environmental advocates and many Democrats. Seeking increased production from Saudi Arabia, Venezuela, or Iran each carries its own diplomatic and moral weight. Biden has already acknowledged that the ban on Russian oil will cost American consumers, framing it as the price of not underwriting a war.
The people paying the steepest price, in proportional terms, are those who can least afford it. The National Energy Assistance Directors Association estimates that the bottom fifth of American households by income could spend as much as 38 percent of their earnings on energy this year — including gasoline — compared to 27 percent in 2020. These are workers in retail and fast food, people who cannot log on from home and must commute regardless of what the pump says.
Back at the Brooklyn station, a film production worker named George Chen said he'd have to raise what he charges clients to cover the cost of driving around the city for work. He understood he was among the luckier ones. The families without that flexibility, he said, were the ones he worried about.
Patrick De Haan, an analyst for the gas-tracking app GasBuddy, put the central uncertainty plainly: at some price point, drivers will cut back enough to push demand — and eventually prices — down. Whether that threshold is $5, $6, or $7, nobody can say. The only lever that seems clearly available right now is the one in the hands of ordinary drivers, and how hard they're willing to pull it.
Notable Quotes
There has got to be some point where people start cutting back — I just don't know what the magic point is. Is it $5, $6, or $7? That's the million-dollar question nobody knows.— Patrick De Haan, analyst at GasBuddy
It's going to be painful for people who don't get pay increases right away. I can only imagine the families who can't afford it.— George Chen, film production worker, Brooklyn
The Hearth Conversation Another angle on the story
Everyone seems to have a different villain for this — Biden, Putin, the oil companies. Is any one of them actually responsible?
All three explanations have some truth, which is exactly why none of them is satisfying on its own. Putin's invasion removed a major producer from the market. Biden's policy choices constrain some domestic options. And oil companies are posting record profits while prices climb. The honest answer is that it's a pile-up, not a single cause.
Why does the refinery situation matter so much? Isn't the problem just the price of crude?
Crude is only half the equation. You still have to turn it into gasoline, and the U.S. has lost nearly a million barrels a day of that processing capacity since 2019. Releasing oil from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve sounds like a fix, but if you can't refine it fast enough, the crude just sits there.
Why aren't refineries just rebuilding that lost capacity?
Because the business case isn't there. A refinery is a decades-long investment, and the people making those decisions are watching electric vehicle adoption accelerate. Why spend billions on infrastructure for a fuel that may be in structural decline within twenty years?
So the EV transition is actually making gas more expensive right now?
In a roundabout way, yes. The long-term expectation of falling gasoline demand is discouraging the short-term investment that would increase supply. The future is undercutting the present.
What about the people who are really getting squeezed by this?
The lowest-income households — about one in five American families — could end up spending nearly 40 cents of every dollar they earn on energy this year. These aren't people who can work from home or buy an EV. They commute by car or transit, and the price at the pump is non-negotiable for them.
Is there any realistic near-term relief?
Analysts are essentially saying no. The EU ban on Russian oil hasn't fully taken effect yet, which means supply could get tighter before it gets looser. The one lever that actually works in the short term is demand — if enough drivers cut back enough miles, prices feel it. But nobody knows what price triggers that behavior at scale.