In the long rhythm of championship cycles, defending champions are always asked the same question: was it a dynasty or a moment? The Seattle Seahawks open the 2026 NFL season as 3.5-point home favorites against the New England Patriots — a rematch of last February's Super Bowl — carrying both the weight of a title and the uncertainty of a roster reshaped by free agency. The Patriots, buoyed by a new offensive weapon in A.J. Brown and a rising quarterback in Drake Maye, arrive in Seattle seeking to prove their own legitimacy against a schedule that critics say flattered them last season. What u
Seahawks Favored Over Patriots in Super Bowl LX Rematch Season Opener
The question is whether Price can step in and produce immediately.
Mark
So the Seahawks are favored by 3.5 points at home. That seems reasonable for the defending champs, but they lost their Super Bowl MVP. How much should we worry about that?
Mimi
Kenneth Walker III was huge in that championship game, especially when the passing game wasn't clicking. But Seattle has depth, and they used a first-round pick on Jadarian Price to replace him. The question is whether Price can step in and produce at that level immediately.
Luke
Here's what I'd push back on: we don't actually know if Price will be good. Walker had a great Super Bowl, but that's one game. Price is a prospect. The Seahawks are betting on potential, and the market is pricing them as if that bet is already won.
Mark
What about the Patriots? They got A.J. Brown, which sounds like a big move.
Mimi
It is. Drake Maye had an incredible second half of last season and finished second in MVP voting. Brown gives him a legitimate number-one receiver to work with. But here's the thing: the Patriots faced the easiest schedule in recent history last year.
Luke
And they're projected to have one of the ten easiest again this year. That's a real structural advantage, but it also means we don't know how good they actually are. Their defense was solid—top ten in EPA per play—but in the playoffs, they benefited from opponents playing poorly at quarterback. That's not a sustainable edge.
Mark
So this Week 1 game tells us something important about both teams?
Mimi
Exactly. For New England, it's a road test in a real environment. For Seattle, it's about whether they can maintain championship-level play without three defensive starters and with a new running back.
Luke
And for the market, it's a chance to recalibrate. If the Patriots win, the narrative about schedule-dependent success gets harder to maintain. If Seattle wins, it validates the idea that they're still the team to beat despite the losses.
Mark
The Seahawks are 11-8 at home under Macdonald. That's not overwhelming.
Mimi
True, but they went 6-2 at home last regular season after a rough 3-6 in 2024. They're trending in the right direction, at least at home.
The Pulse
- Seattle enters as defending champions but without their Super Bowl MVP running back, two defensive starters, and the offensive coordinator who helped build their title-winning system.
- The Seahawks are banking on first-round rookie Jadarian Price to immediately replicate the ground-game dominance that Kenneth Walker III provided when the passing attack faltered in the championship game.
- New England's Drake Maye finished second in MVP voting last season, but the Patriots faced the easiest schedule in recent NFL history — this road opener is the first real stress test of whether that success was earned or engineered by circumstance.
- A.J. Brown's arrival gives Maye a genuine elite target for the first time, raising the ceiling of a Patriots offense that previously leaned on defensive efficiency and opponent misfortune in the playoffs.
- Oddsmakers give Seattle a 64% implied win probability, but the outcome will carry outsized meaning — shaping how both franchises are evaluated for the entire 2026 season.
In the long rhythm of championship cycles, defending champions are always asked the same question: was it a dynasty or a moment? The Seattle Seahawks open the 2026 NFL season as 3.5-point home favorites against the New England Patriots — a rematch of last February's Super Bowl — carrying both the weight of a title and the uncertainty of a roster reshaped by free agency. The Patriots, buoyed by a new offensive weapon in A.J. Brown and a rising quarterback in Drake Maye, arrive in Seattle seeking to prove their own legitimacy against a schedule that critics say flattered them last season. What unfolds on September 9th will begin to answer whether either team's recent success reflects genuine excellence or favorable circumstance.
The Seattle Seahawks open the 2026 NFL season at home against the New England Patriots on September 9th in a rematch of last season's Super Bowl, and the betting market has already sided with the defending champions. Seattle is favored by 3.5 points, implying a win probability just above 64 percent — a vote of confidence that comes despite significant roster turnover.
The Seahawks lost three meaningful contributors to free agency: cornerback Tariq Woolen, edge rusher Boye Mafe, and Kenneth Walker III, the running back who was named Super Bowl MVP after carrying the offense through early passing struggles in the championship game. Seattle responded by spending a first-round pick on Jadarian Price, a young back expected to provide similar ground-game impact. The team also lost offensive coordinator Klint Kubiak, who departed to become head coach of the Las Vegas Raiders, adding a layer of transition to an offense that must sustain championship-level production under a new play-caller.
New England arrives with its own offseason addition. The Patriots traded for wide receiver A.J. Brown, giving quarterback Drake Maye a genuine elite target entering his second season. Maye's MVP runner-up finish last year was impressive, but the Patriots played the easiest schedule in recent NFL history and benefited from poor opposing quarterback play in the playoffs — though their defense did rank in the top ten by EPA per play, suggesting real quality beneath the favorable conditions.
The game poses two defining questions for the season ahead: can the Patriots win in a genuinely difficult environment, and can Seattle maintain championship form through all this change? Head coach Mike Macdonald has built a solid home record, but the answers on September 9th will set the tone for how both franchises are understood for months to come.
The defending Super Bowl champion Seattle Seahawks will open the 2026 NFL season at home against the New England Patriots on Wednesday, September 9th, and oddsmakers have already rendered their verdict: Seattle is the team to beat. The Seahawks are favored by 3.5 points, giving them an implied win probability of just over 64 percent according to DraftKings Sportsbook. It's a rematch of last season's championship game, where Seattle's dominant performance left little doubt about which team belonged on top.
But the Seahawks are not the same team that won that title. Three significant defensive contributors—cornerback Tariq Woolen, edge rusher Boye Mafe, and running back Kenneth Walker III, who was named Super Bowl MVP—all departed in free agency. Walker's absence is perhaps the most glaring. He had a breakout performance in the championship game, running effectively against New England when the passing game stumbled early. To fill that void, Seattle invested a first-round pick in running back Jadarian Price, betting that a young, talented back can provide the same kind of ground-game lift that Walker delivered.
The Patriots, meanwhile, arrive in Seattle with their own offensive reinforcement. New England made a significant trade this offseason to acquire wide receiver A.J. Brown, giving quarterback Drake Maye an elite receiving option as he enters his second season. Maye finished second in MVP voting last year, a remarkable achievement for a second-year player, though context matters: the Patriots faced by far the easiest schedule in recent NFL history. They're projected to have one of the ten easiest schedules again in 2026, which raises a legitimate question about whether last season's success was a product of the competition level or evidence of a genuinely elite team. In the playoffs, New England benefited from poor quarterback play from opponents, though the defense did finish in the top ten in EPA per play, a metric that suggests real defensive quality.
For the Patriots, this road game in Week 1 is a chance to prove that last year's regular season dominance translates to winning in a tougher environment. For the Seahawks, the focus will be on Price's ability to replicate Walker's impact. The Seahawks also lost offensive coordinator Klint Kubiak, who took the head coaching job with the Las Vegas Raiders, adding another layer of transition to an offense that needs to maintain its championship-caliber production. Under head coach Mike Macdonald, Seattle has gone 11-8 at home overall, including a 6-2 record in the regular season last year after struggling at 3-6 in 2024.
The betting market has spoken, but the field will have the final say. This matchup will answer two pressing questions: whether the Patriots' 2025 success was schedule-dependent or the mark of a genuine contender, and whether the Seahawks can sustain their championship form despite losing three key contributors. The answers will shape how both teams are perceived heading into the rest of the season.
Notable Quotes
The question for Maye and Co. is whether or not last season's regular season success was a byproduct of the schedule or this team actually being one of the best in the NFL.— Sports Illustrated reporting
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