The destruction of the oil and gas industry must stop now
For the first time since 1973, Scottish Conservatives have won a Westminster by-election, capturing Aberdeen South on a message of energy industry survival — a reminder that economic identity can outlast political habit. The victory of Douglas Lumsden, a former oil and gas worker turned MSP, over the SNP's Richard Thomson by more than 6,000 votes signals that Scotland's political map remains restless and unresolved. On the same day, the SNP held Arbroath and Broughty Ferry, Labour continued its Scottish decline, and Reform UK edged into third — together, three contests that suggest the old certainties of Scottish politics are giving way to something not yet fully named.
- Scottish Conservatives ended a 53-year by-election drought in Westminster, a rupture significant enough to reorder assumptions about the party's viability north of the border.
- Lumsden's singular focus on protecting the North East oil and gas industry cut through, mobilising voters in a region where energy is not an abstraction but a livelihood.
- The SNP's Lara Bird held Arbroath and Broughty Ferry with a majority of over 5,000, offering the party a counterweight to its Aberdeen South humiliation — but Labour's collapse to fourth place deepened a separate crisis.
- Lumsden now faces an immediate institutional constraint: dual mandate rules require him to resign his Holyrood seat within 49 days, handing it to Fraserburgh councillor James Adams.
- The SNP responded with defiance, insisting Aberdeen South has been won back before and will be again — but the confidence carried the unmistakable undertone of a party recalibrating its footing.
For the first time in more than half a century, Scottish Conservatives have won a Westminster by-election. Douglas Lumsden, a Tory MSP and former oil and gas worker, took Aberdeen South from the SNP with nearly half of all votes cast, defeating Richard Thomson by over 6,000 ballots. The last time the party achieved this was 1973, in Edinburgh North; the last time they gained such a seat was 1967. Aberdeen South represents a genuine break in that long pattern.
Lumsden's campaign carried a single, focused message: the North East's oil and gas industry must be protected. In a region where energy production is economically central, that appeal proved decisive. The Conservatives had lost the seat to the SNP in 2017 and again in 2019 — its return now feels like a statement about what voters in that corner of Scotland believe is at stake.
The victory comes with an immediate complication. Lumsden was re-elected as a North East MSP just six weeks before his Westminster win, and Scottish Parliament rules forbid holding both seats. He must resign from Holyrood within 49 days, passing his list seat to Fraserburgh councillor James Adams.
Elsewhere on the same day, the SNP held Arbroath and Broughty Ferry. Lara Bird, a lawyer and former SNP researcher, won with a majority exceeding 5,000 over the Conservatives, framing her victory as a reaffirmation of Scotland's independence path. But the result also exposed Labour's continued fragility in Scotland — the party fell to fourth place, with Reform UK climbing to third.
Both by-elections were triggered by SNP MPs Stephen Flynn and Stephen Gethins resigning from Westminster after winning Holyrood seats. The SNP acknowledged the Aberdeen South loss but spoke of recapturing it, pointing to past precedent. The confidence was real, but so was the underlying unease: the Conservatives had found a message that worked, and Labour had not found one at all.
For the first time in more than half a century, Scottish Conservatives have won a Westminster seat in a by-election. Douglas Lumsden, a Tory MSP and former oil and gas worker, captured Aberdeen South from the SNP with nearly half of all votes cast, defeating SNP candidate Richard Thomson by a margin exceeding 6,000 ballots. The victory marks a significant reversal in a constituency the Conservatives had lost to the SNP in 2017, then watched slip away again two years later.
Lumsden's campaign centered on a single, resonant message: the oil and gas industry in the North East must not be destroyed. It was a direct appeal to voters in a region where energy production remains economically vital, and it proved effective enough to end a drought that stretched back to 1973, when the Scottish Tories last won a Westminster by-election—that one in Edinburgh North. The party had not gained a seat in such a contest since 1967, when they took Glasgow Pollok from Labour. The Aberdeen South result represents a genuine rupture in that pattern.
Yet Lumsden faces an immediate complication. Scottish Parliament rules prohibit dual mandates—holding seats in both Westminster and Holyrood simultaneously. He was re-elected as a North East MSP just six weeks before his Westminster victory, and now he must choose. He will resign from the Scottish Parliament within 49 days, vacating his Holyrood seat for the next candidate on the Conservative North East Scotland list, Fraserburgh councillor James Adams. The mechanics of Scottish politics have forced his hand.
On the same day, the SNP demonstrated it still commands loyalty in other quarters. Lara Bird, a qualified lawyer who has worked as an SNP researcher and adviser at Westminster, won the Arbroath and Broughty Ferry by-election with a majority exceeding 5,000 votes over the Conservatives. Bird, from near Kirriemuir, framed her victory as a rejection of divisive politics and a reaffirmation of Scotland's path toward independence. The result offered the SNP some consolation after losing Aberdeen South, though it also revealed a troubling shift in the political landscape: Labour, which had held second place in the constituency, slipped to fourth, with Reform UK moving into third.
Both Scottish by-elections were triggered when sitting SNP MPs—Stephen Flynn in Aberdeen South and Stephen Gethins in Arbroath and Broughty Ferry—resigned from the House of Commons after being elected to the Scottish Parliament. Their departures created the vacancies that produced these contests.
The SNP's response to the Aberdeen South loss carried a note of defiance mixed with determination. Party figures acknowledged the defeat but expressed confidence in recapturing the seat in future elections, pointing to their track record of winning it back before. The message was clear: this is a setback, not a collapse. Yet the underlying anxiety was visible too. The Conservatives' ability to mobilize voters around the oil and gas issue, combined with Labour's continued weakness in Scotland, suggested the political ground had shifted in ways the SNP could not entirely control.
South of the border, Greater Manchester mayor Andy Burnham won the Makerfield by-election, a result that opens a different kind of political door. His victory positions him to potentially challenge Sir Keir Starmer for the Labour Party leadership—a development that underscores how by-elections, even in Scotland, ripple across the entire British political system. The three contests together painted a picture of a country in flux, where old certainties no longer hold and new coalitions are forming around unexpected issues.
Notable Quotes
The destruction of the oil and gas industry must stop now— Douglas Lumsden, Scottish Conservative winner of Aberdeen South
Voters have rejected the politics of division and hate, and made clear Scotland's future lies with independence— Lara Bird, SNP winner of Arbroath and Broughty Ferry
The Hearth Conversation Another angle on the story
Why does a Scottish Conservative winning a Westminster seat matter so much if they immediately have to give up their Holyrood seat?
Because it breaks a 50-year drought. The symbolism matters—it shows the SNP is vulnerable on something, in this case energy policy. The dual mandate rule is a separate problem Lumsden has to solve, but it doesn't erase what the vote meant.
What was the actual message that won Aberdeen South?
Oil and gas. Lumsden, who worked in that industry, ran on protecting it. The SNP has been associated with moving away from fossil fuels, and in a region where energy jobs still matter, that became a wedge.
Did the SNP lose because they're unpopular, or because the Conservatives ran a smarter campaign?
Probably both. But the fact that Labour collapsed to fourth place in Arbroath suggests something broader is happening—voters are sorting themselves differently than they were even a year ago.
What does Lara Bird's win in Arbroath tell us?
That the SNP's independence message still resonates in some places. But she won by 5,000 votes, not the landslides they used to get. The party is holding on, not surging.
Is this the beginning of a Conservative resurgence in Scotland?
One by-election doesn't make a trend. But it's the first crack in a very solid wall. Whether it widens depends on whether the oil and gas issue stays salient, and whether the Conservatives can build on it elsewhere.