In the heartland of Kenya's most storied opposition region, President Ruto spent four days this week not governing but persuading — asking Nyanza to remain inside a political partnership he frames as the final wish of the late Raila Odinga. The broad-based government binding UDA and ODM is being tested by quiet defections and approaching election pressures, and Ruto's tour was an attempt to hold the arrangement together by invoking a legacy that can no longer speak for itself. What unfolds in Nyanza may determine whether post-Raila politics consolidates around national coalition-building or fr
Ruto urges Nyanza to reject political experiments, stay in broad-based government
Do not agree to do political experiments with that group
Mark
So Ruto is essentially asking Nyanza to trust that Raila wanted this partnership to continue. How solid is that claim?
Mimi
Mbadi says he has direct knowledge from conversations with Raila before his death. He's a senior figure, Treasury CS, someone who worked with Raila for decades. But it's his recollection of private words, not a public statement Raila made.
Luke
That's the thing—we have Mbadi's account, and it's specific enough to be credible, but it's also impossible to independently verify. Raila died in January 2022, before the broad-based government even existed. So we're working backward from Mbadi's memory.
Mimi
True. But the broader point is that Ruto is trying to make the partnership feel inevitable, like it's not just a political deal but an inheritance. He's saying: this is what Raila left you.
Mark
And it's working? The region is staying put?
Mimi
Mostly. Most ODM leaders have remained in the arrangement. But Orengo moved to the opposition, and Omondi is openly against Ruto's re-election. So there's fracturing happening.
Luke
Which is why Ruto had to do a four-day tour. If the partnership were truly what Raila wanted and what the region wanted, you wouldn't need that level of political maintenance. The very intensity of the campaign suggests the arrangement is fragile.
Mark
What happens if more leaders defect?
Mimi
Then the broad-based government loses its regional anchor. Nyanza becomes genuinely contested territory in 2027, not a given.
Luke
And Ruto's claim that Raila intended this becomes harder to sustain if the people Raila actually led start rejecting it.
The Pulse
- Nyanza, once a unified opposition bloc, is quietly splintering — with Governor Orengo drifting toward Linda Mwananchi and at least one MP openly opposing Ruto's re-election bid.
- Ruto responded with four days of intensive political persuasion across Kisumu, Siaya, Homa Bay, and Migori, wrapping development project launches in sustained appeals to stay the course.
- The president's most powerful argument was also his most unverifiable: that the broad-based government was Raila's own vision, and abandoning it would betray the former prime minister's legacy.
- Treasury CS Mbadi escalated the claim further, asserting that Raila privately instructed ODM to support Ruto's 2027 re-election — a statement with no public record to confirm or contest it.
- The sheer scale of the tour — four counties, a large state delegation, repeated invocations of Raila's name — revealed that the partnership requires constant political maintenance rather than organic loyalty.
- For Nyanza voters weighing their options, the unresolved question is whether a dead man's alleged private wishes are sufficient reason to remain inside an arrangement that rivals are calling a surrender.
In the heartland of Kenya's most storied opposition region, President Ruto spent four days this week not governing but persuading — asking Nyanza to remain inside a political partnership he frames as the final wish of the late Raila Odinga. The broad-based government binding UDA and ODM is being tested by quiet defections and approaching election pressures, and Ruto's tour was an attempt to hold the arrangement together by invoking a legacy that can no longer speak for itself. What unfolds in Nyanza may determine whether post-Raila politics consolidates around national coalition-building or fractures back into the tribal and oppositional patterns that have long defined the region.
President Ruto arrived in Nyanza this week carrying a single political message: stay put. The region — long an opposition stronghold and the political home of the late Raila Odinga — is now being asked by the sitting president to resist what he calls political experiments and remain committed to the broad-based government that formally joined his UDA party with Raila's ODM.
The four-day tour through Kisumu, Siaya, Homa Bay, and Migori blended development project commissionings with sustained political persuasion. Ruto's framing was deliberate: the broad-based government, he argued, was not a tactical alliance but Raila's own legacy — a framework for national unity meant to transcend tribal divisions. He cast his rivals as hollow formations built on personality and slogans, with no governing vision to offer.
Treasury CS John Mbadi went further, claiming that Raila had explicitly instructed ODM to support Ruto's 2027 re-election. Speaking in Kabondo Kasipul, Mbadi said Raila's words to him had been unambiguous — that ODM must back the president's agenda, and that Raila had come to view Ruto as effectively part of the movement once he assumed the presidency. The assertion positioned the entire partnership as something Raila had designed, not merely accepted.
The problem is that Nyanza is fracturing. Most ODM leaders remain within the arrangement, but Siaya Governor James Orengo has moved toward the opposition coalition Linda Mwananchi, and Suba South MP Caroli Omondi stands alone among elected representatives in openly opposing Ruto's re-election. Ruto's tour was an attempt to arrest that drift by anchoring post-Raila politics to the partnership itself.
The delegation accompanying Ruto — Governor Gladys Wanga, several cabinet secretaries, and multiple MPs — was itself a signal: the state apparatus and the region's own leadership stood behind the arrangement. Yet the intensity of the campaign suggested the partnership is not self-sustaining. It requires constant reminding that this is what Raila wanted.
What remains unresolved is whether Mbadi's claim about Raila's 2027 intentions can be verified. Raila died in January 2022, before the broad-based government was formally constituted. No public statement confirms that he intended to support Ruto's re-election. For Nyanza voters deciding whether to stay or leave, the gap between what Mbadi claims Raila thought and what Raila actually said on record will likely matter considerably.
President William Ruto arrived in Nyanza this week with a single political message: stay put. The region, long an opposition stronghold and the political home of the late Raila Odinga, is now being asked by the sitting president to resist what he calls political experiments and remain locked into the broad-based government arrangement that brought his UDA party and Raila's ODM into formal partnership.
Ruto's four-day tour through Kisumu, Siaya, Homa Bay, and Migori mixed the ceremonial work of commissioning development projects with sustained political persuasion. The framing was deliberate: he positioned the broad-based government not as a tactical alliance but as Raila's own political legacy—a framework for national unity that transcends tribal divisions. "Do not agree to do political experiments with that group that has no agenda or plan for this country," Ruto told residents. "The way we agreed with Baba to form the broad-based government to bring all Kenyans together and end tribalism, that is the route we should travel." He cast his rivals as hollow—personality cults, tribal formations, and purveyors of slogans without substance or governing vision.
The president's argument rested on a specific claim about Raila's intentions. Treasury Cabinet Secretary John Mbadi, speaking in Kabondo Kasipul, went further than Ruto had, asserting that Raila had explicitly intended to support the president's re-election in 2027. Mbadi, who said he had worked with Raila since 1992, claimed the former prime minister's instructions were unambiguous: ODM must support Ruto's agenda. "When Baba brought us broad-based government, his words to me were very clear," Mbadi said. "He told me that I must make sure that I support President Ruto to deliver on his agenda." Mbadi went further still, suggesting that Raila had viewed Ruto himself as effectively part of ODM once he became president—that the cooperation was not incidental but foundational to Raila's political vision.
This framing matters because Nyanza is fractured. Most ODM leaders have remained within the broad-based arrangement, but not all. Siaya Governor James Orengo has moved toward the opposition coalition Linda Mwananchi. Suba South MP Caroli Omondi stands alone among elected representatives in openly opposing Ruto's re-election. The region that once moved as a bloc behind Raila is now splintering, and Ruto's tour was an attempt to arrest that fracture by anchoring post-Raila politics to the partnership agreement itself.
Ruto's appeal to voters was pragmatic. He asked Nyanza residents to apply the same scrutiny to political choices that they apply to local elections—to examine track records and concrete agendas rather than personalities or tribal affiliation. He presented the broad-based government as a vehicle through which the region could secure development while maintaining a seat at the national table. The alternative, he suggested, was irrelevance: opposition movements with no plan, no program, nothing to deliver.
The tour was also a show of force. Ruto traveled with Homa Bay Governor Gladys Wanga, Interior Principal Secretary Raymond Omolo, Energy Cabinet Secretary Opiyo Wandayi, Woman Representative Joyce Bensuda, and MPs Boyd Were and Eve Obara. The delegation signaled that the state apparatus and the region's own elected leadership stood behind the arrangement. Yet the very need for such an intensive campaign—four days, multiple counties, repeated invocations of Raila's name—suggested that the partnership is not self-sustaining. It requires constant political maintenance, constant reminding that this is what Raila wanted, that this is the path forward.
What remains unresolved is whether Mbadi's claim about Raila's 2027 intentions can be verified or challenged. Raila died in January 2022, before the broad-based government was formally constituted. The assertion that he intended to support Ruto's re-election rests on Mbadi's recollection of private conversations. No public statement from Raila exists to confirm it. For voters in Nyanza trying to decide whether to stay or leave the arrangement, that gap between what Mbadi claims Raila thought and what Raila actually said will likely matter.
Notable Quotes
When Baba brought us broad-based government, his words to me were very clear. He told me that I must make sure that I support President Ruto to deliver on his agenda.— Treasury CS John Mbadi
Do not agree to do political experiments with that group that has no agenda or plan for this country. The way we agreed with Baba to form the broad-based government to bring all Kenyans together and end tribalism, that is the route we should travel.— President William Ruto
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Politics & Governance