Russia's missile drills near disputed islands escalate tensions with Japan

Russia's Pacific fleet fired live missiles from one of the most contested patches of ocean in Asia this week, and the move has pushed an old territorial wound closer to open conflict. On Thursday, the navy launched Bastion surface-to-ship missiles from Etorofu, the largest island in a four-island archipelago that sits between Russia and Japan like a bone between two dogs. The missiles traveled roughly 300 kilometers and hit their targets. It was a demonstration of force, and it was deliberate.

The islands themselves are the problem. Russia calls them the Kuril Islands. Japan calls them the Northern Territories, or sometimes the Four Northern Islands. The Soviet Union took them from Japan at the end of the Second World War, and no peace treaty has ever settled the matter. For nearly eighty years, the dispute has simmered—sometimes quietly, sometimes not. Last week, Vladimir Putin visited Etorofu for the first time, a symbolic act that lit a fuse. Japan summoned Russia's ambassador in Tokyo. Russia summoned Japan's ambassador in Moscow. The diplomatic temperature rose. Then came the missiles.

The exercises are not small. Russia's Pacific fleet has deployed roughly 60 surface ships, submarines, and support vessels. About 30 aircraft, helicopters, and unmanned systems are involved. Over 13,000 service members are participating. The drills began on August 4th, and Japan was told in advance that live-fire operations would be part of the program. Japan lodged a formal protest on August 5th anyway. The exercises are scheduled to run through August 29th.

Putin watched some of the maneuvers from the Varyag, the Pacific fleet's flagship, during his visit on August 12th. Standing on the bridge, he framed the drills as a defensive necessity. "The region is unfortunately becoming increasingly prone to conflict," he said, "with NATO seeking to gain a foothold here and the emergence of new military and political blocs." He spoke of threats to Russia, of new weapons systems being deployed, of plans that required a response. It is the language of encirclement, of a great power defending its sphere.

Japan's foreign minister, Toshimitsu Motegi, was in Oman when the missiles fired. His response was sharp and formal: "We cannot tolerate moves to strengthen military power on the Four Northern Islands because they go against our country's stance on the territories." The words are careful—diplomatic language for a deeper anger. Japan sees the drills not as exercises but as a consolidation of control, a military fait accompli on land that Japan claims as its own.

What makes this moment different from previous tensions is the scale and the symbolism working together. Putin's visit was the first by a Russian leader to the islands. The drills that followed were not routine. They were a show of strength timed to follow that visit, a way of saying: this is ours, we are fortifying it, and we are not leaving. For Japan, watching a nuclear-powered submarine and a guided-missile cruiser operate in waters it considers its own, the message is unmistakable. The military balance in the region is shifting, and Russia is making sure everyone knows it.

The territorial dispute itself is old enough that most people have stopped paying attention to it. But in the Indo-Pacific, where the United States, China, Japan, and Russia are all jockeying for position, old disputes have a way of becoming new flashpoints. Russia frames its actions as defensive, a response to NATO expansion and new military blocs. Japan sees aggression where Russia sees prudence. The missiles that hit their targets 300 kilometers away on Thursday were not just exercises. They were a statement, and statements like that tend to demand responses.