Trump and populism are very much in the great majority of our party
In the weeks following Donald Trump's second impeachment acquittal, the Republican Party found itself caught between two competing imperatives: the institutional need for unity ahead of the 2022 midterms, and the gravitational pull of a former president unwilling to recede from the stage. As Mitch McConnell and Kevin McCarthy attempted to redirect their party's energy toward opposing Biden's sweeping coronavirus relief bill, Trump's imminent CPAC address and his appetite for retribution against impeachment supporters reminded observers that political parties, like rivers, do not always flow where their leaders intend.
- Republican leaders staged a unified press offensive against Biden's $1.9 trillion relief bill, only to have the moment fractured on live camera when Liz Cheney publicly broke with Kevin McCarthy over whether Trump should shape the party's future.
- Trump's threat to back primary challengers against the ten House Republicans who voted to impeach him turned the 2022 midterm map into a minefield of internal retribution rather than a coordinated campaign against Democrats.
- McConnell's attempt to bury the January 6th rupture was undercut by Trump's own refusal to let it go — the former president had already branded the Senate leader a 'dour, sullen, and unsmiling political hack' in a public statement.
- With 74 million votes and a loyal base that had swelled Republican rolls by an estimated 25 million since 2016, Trump remained mathematically too large for party elites to marginalize, as even Mitt Romney conceded openly.
- As Trump prepared to address CPAC, the party hovered at an unresolved crossroads — its institutional commanders pulling toward discipline and forward momentum, its former president pulling toward loyalty tests and score-settling.
In late February 2021, Republican leaders Mitch McConnell and Kevin McCarthy were attempting something delicate: hold the party together around opposition to Biden's $1.9 trillion coronavirus relief bill while quietly papering over the wounds left by January 6th. The plan required discipline and silence on internal divisions. Neither lasted long.
At a press conference designed to attack Democratic spending, reporters pressed House Republican leaders on Trump's role in the party's future. McCarthy said yes without hesitation. Liz Cheney, standing in the same room, said the opposite — that Trump should play no role in the party or the country going forward. The contradiction was impossible to ignore.
The fracture ran deeper than a single press conference. Trump had publicly savaged McConnell after the Senate leader said Trump bore moral and practical responsibility for the Capitol attack that killed five people. McConnell tried to move on; Trump did not. Advisers said the former president was actively planning to support primary challengers against the ten House Republicans who had voted to impeach him — a strategy that threatened to turn the 2022 midterms into an internal purge rather than a unified offensive.
The difficulty for Republican leaders was arithmetical. Trump had received 74 million votes — more than any Republican in history — and the party's own data suggested he had brought roughly 25 million new voters into the fold since 2016. Mitt Romney, one of seven Republicans who voted to convict Trump, put it plainly: traditional conservatives like himself were now a small minority within their own party. The populist wing was the party.
Some Trump allies made clear they had no interest in unity on anyone else's terms. Matt Gaetz urged Trump to run again in 2024 and dismissed the party establishment as relics of failed foreign policy and bad trade deals. Senator Rick Scott, heading the Senate Republican campaign effort, expressed confidence Trump would be a team player in 2022 — while acknowledging that Trump alone would decide whether that was true.
As Trump prepared to take the CPAC stage, the Republican Party faced a reckoning it had been trying to defer. Its leaders wanted discipline and forward momentum. Its base wanted Trump. And Trump, by every available signal, wanted neither to fade nor to follow.
In late February 2021, Republican leaders faced a test of their own making. Mitch McConnell and Kevin McCarthy, the party's Senate and House commanders, were trying to steer their members toward a unified front against President Biden's $1.9 trillion coronavirus relief bill. The strategy was straightforward: focus fire on Democratic spending, stay quiet about the fractures within the party's own ranks. But the calendar was working against them. In just days, Donald Trump would take the stage at the Conservative Political Action Committee's annual conference, and no one could predict what he might say or do.
The tension surfaced immediately. At a Wednesday press conference meant to attack the Democratic spending package, reporters asked House Republican leaders whether Trump should be playing a prominent role in the party's future. Kevin McCarthy said yes without hesitation. Liz Cheney, the third-ranking House Republican and one of ten who had voted to impeach Trump for inciting insurrection, disagreed sharply. "I don't believe that he should be playing a role in the future of the party or the country," she said. The contradiction hung in the air—two senior Republicans, standing in the same room, unable to agree on the most basic question of their party's direction.
The underlying conflict was not subtle. Trump had already attacked McConnell in brutal terms, calling him a "dour, sullen, and unsmiling political hack" after the Senate Republican leader said Trump bore "practically and morally responsible" for the January 6 Capitol attack that killed five people, including a police officer. McConnell had since tried to move past the dispute, telling reporters to focus on the party's current opposition to Biden's agenda. But Trump showed no interest in moving on. According to a Trump adviser, the former president had expressed a desire to punish the ten House Republicans who voted for his impeachment by supporting primary challengers against them in 2022.
This posed a genuine problem for Republican strategy. The party's leaders wanted to present themselves as unified and forward-looking as they prepared for midterm elections that would determine control of Congress. Trump, by contrast, seemed intent on settling scores and maintaining his grip on the party's direction. He had drawn 74 million votes in the 2020 election—more than any Republican candidate in history—and that raw political power made it nearly impossible for the party to simply move past him, even if some leaders wanted to.
The numbers told the story of Trump's dominance within Republican ranks. The Republican National Committee estimated that more than 25 million voters had been drawn to the party since Trump won in 2016. Senator Mitt Romney, one of seven Republicans who voted to convict Trump in the impeachment trial, acknowledged the reality bluntly: "President Trump and populism are very much in the great majority of our party, and people like myself, who are more traditional conservatives, are a very small minority." The math was clear. Trump's voters outnumbered the party's traditional conservative wing by a wide margin.
Some Trump allies were already signaling they had no interest in party unity if it meant sidelining the former president. Representative Matt Gaetz urged Trump to run again in 2024 and attacked what he called the "Establishment GOP" for wanting to return to "forever wars, bad trade deals, and caravans crashing across our borders." Senator Rick Scott, who chaired the Senate Republican campaign committee, said he had told Trump where he thought the former president could be helpful in 2022 and was confident Trump would be a team player. But Scott's own words revealed the uncertainty: Trump "gets to make the decision whether he wants to do it or not," he said, and Trump had long shown a willingness to ignore advice.
As Trump prepared to speak at CPAC on Sunday, the Republican Party faced a choice it could not avoid. Its leaders wanted unity against Biden. Its base remained deeply attached to Trump. And Trump himself seemed determined to use his influence to reshape the party in his image, regardless of what McConnell or McCarthy wanted. The next few days would show whether the party could hold together, or whether the divisions over January 6 and Trump's future would prove too deep to bridge.
Notable Quotes
I don't believe that he should be playing a role in the future of the party or the country.— Representative Liz Cheney
President Trump and populism are very much in the great majority of our party, and people like myself, who are more traditional conservatives, are a very small minority.— Senator Mitt Romney
The Hearth Conversation Another angle on the story
Why does Trump's speech at CPAC matter so much right now? Can't Republican leaders just move forward without him?
Because Trump still commands the loyalty of millions of Republican voters—74 million of them voted for him in 2020. The party's leaders want to focus on beating Biden, but Trump has signaled he wants to punish the ten Republicans who voted to impeach him by backing primary challengers against them. That's not moving forward. That's a threat.
So the party is genuinely divided on whether Trump should have a role?
Deeply. Kevin McCarthy says Trump should be in the spotlight. Liz Cheney, the third-ranking House Republican, says he shouldn't be. They're not disagreeing in private—they're contradicting each other at press conferences. That's how broken the unity is.
What does McConnell think?
McConnell called Trump "practically and morally responsible" for January 6. Trump called him a "dour, sullen, and unsmiling political hack." McConnell has since tried to move on and focus on opposing Biden's agenda, but Trump doesn't seem interested in letting it go.
Is there any chance the party actually stays unified against Biden's spending bill?
Maybe on that specific vote. But the real test is what happens after Trump speaks. If he uses the platform to attack the ten Republicans who impeached him, or to hint at running in 2024, the unity falls apart. The party can't control him, and he knows it.
Why can't they just marginalize him?
Because he's not a fringe figure. Mitt Romney, one of the few Republicans willing to criticize Trump, admitted that Trump and populism represent the great majority of the party, while traditional conservatives like him are a small minority. The numbers don't work in their favor.