In the depths of what should be peak hurricane season, the Atlantic basin sits in an almost unnatural stillness — no hurricanes formed by mid-September 2026, a record stretching back to the dawn of satellite meteorology. The architect of this quiet is El Niño, a periodic warming of the equatorial Pacific that has thrown up a triple wall of atmospheric resistance against storm formation, even as ocean waters reach record temperatures worldwide. Yet nature rarely cancels its debts: the same pattern energizing the Pacific with relentless cyclones is storing heat in the Atlantic that may return as
Record-quiet Atlantic hurricane season as El Niño suppresses storm formation
Hurricane Lowell caused widespread power outages on Kauai; Hurricane Lala brought torrential rains and 80+ mph winds to Hawaii in August.
Their heads are cut off before they even have a chance.
Mark
So we're in the middle of hurricane season and there's been no hurricanes at all? That seems impossible.
Mimi
It does feel counterintuitive, especially since we have record-warm ocean water. But El Niño is creating three separate atmospheric barriers that are preventing storms from forming in the first place.
Luke
Wait—how confident are we in that "record-longest" claim? The source says it's a record in the satellite era, which only goes back to the 1950s. There were apparently years before that with no hurricanes this late, but the data isn't reliable.
Mimi
Right, so it's a record within the era we can actually trust. That's still significant—it's the longest since we've had consistent monitoring.
Mark
What's the wind shear doing exactly?
Mimi
Imagine a storm trying to form. Winds at the bottom are pushing it one direction, winds at the top are pushing it the opposite way. They literally tear the storm apart before it can organize.
Luke
And the numbers on that—45 miles per hour more than a cyclone can withstand—that's coming from one expert's assessment. Is that measured or estimated?
Mimi
It's her analysis of the current conditions. She's saying it's an unheard-of level, which suggests it's outside normal ranges.
Mark
But the Pacific is going crazy, right?
Mimi
Exactly. El Niño suppresses Atlantic storms but energizes Pacific ones. The eastern Pacific has nearly double the normal storm activity.
Luke
And Hawaii has actually been hit twice already.
Mimi
Yes. Hurricane Lowell last week caused major power outages on Kauai. Hurricane Lala in August brought 80-plus-mile-per-hour winds.
Mark
So the quiet Atlantic doesn't mean the world is getting a break from hurricanes.
Mimi
Not at all. The storms are just happening somewhere else. And experts are warning that next year, when El Niño fades, the Atlantic could be unusually active.
Luke
That's Emanuel's prediction based on the lag between ocean and atmosphere warming. It's plausible, but it's still a forecast, not a certainty.
The Pulse
- The Atlantic has produced only five weak, short-lived tropical storms all season, with overall activity running at a mere 7% of normal — the lowest on record in the satellite era.
- El Niño is wielding three simultaneous weapons against storm formation: wind shear so extreme it tears developing systems apart, dry air that starves them of moisture, and high pressure that mechanically pushes them back down.
- A cruel paradox is at work — ocean temperatures have been at record highs for over 100 consecutive days, yet those warm waters cannot overcome the atmospheric suppression El Niño has imposed on the Atlantic.
- While the Atlantic sleeps, the Pacific rages: Hawaii's Kauai lost power after Hurricane Lowell dumped nearly 18 inches of rain, and Hurricane Lala lashed the Big Island with 80-mph gusts just weeks earlier.
- Experts refuse to declare the season safe — the Gulf of Mexico remains vulnerable to late intensification, and history's ghost of Hurricane Andrew reminds forecasters that one storm can rewrite everything.
- When El Niño fades, the Atlantic's stored warmth will have nowhere to go but upward, and scientists are already watching 2027 with quiet dread.
In the depths of what should be peak hurricane season, the Atlantic basin sits in an almost unnatural stillness — no hurricanes formed by mid-September 2026, a record stretching back to the dawn of satellite meteorology. The architect of this quiet is El Niño, a periodic warming of the equatorial Pacific that has thrown up a triple wall of atmospheric resistance against storm formation, even as ocean waters reach record temperatures worldwide. Yet nature rarely cancels its debts: the same pattern energizing the Pacific with relentless cyclones is storing heat in the Atlantic that may return as a reckoning in 2027.
The Atlantic basin is sitting in an eerie, record-breaking calm this September. No hurricanes have formed at all in 2026 — the longest such stretch since reliable storm tracking began in the 1950s — and only five weak tropical storms have appeared all season. Overall Atlantic hurricane activity stands at just 7% of normal, the lowest figure in the satellite era.
The force behind this stillness is a powerful El Niño, the periodic warming of the equatorial Pacific that reshapes weather patterns across the globe. Atmospheric science professor Kristen Corbosiero describes the Atlantic as nearly hostile to storm formation right now, battered by what she calls a "triple whammy": record-strength wind shear that tears developing storms apart before they can organize, dry air that cuts off their moisture supply, and high pressure that mechanically suppresses any upward motion. In the prime storm-breeding waters between Africa and the Caribbean, wind shear alone exceeds what a tropical cyclone can survive by roughly 45 miles per hour — an unprecedented margin. Hurricane expert Brian McNoldy puts it plainly: storms are losing their heads before they ever have a chance.
What makes this suppression remarkable is that it is unfolding against a backdrop of record-warm ocean temperatures — the world's seas have been at historic highs for over 100 consecutive days. MIT meteorologist Kerry Emanuel explains the paradox: what drives hurricanes is not absolute ocean warmth but the temperature gap between the sea surface and the air above it. El Niño has heated the atmosphere faster than the Atlantic waters can keep pace, narrowing that gap and starving storms of their fuel. The ocean's warmth is not lost, however — it is simply delayed. As El Niño weakens and the atmosphere cools, those persistently warm Atlantic waters are expected to set the stage for an unusually active 2027 season.
The Pacific is living the opposite story. El Niño has turned it into what Colorado State's Phil Klotzbach calls "a party" — storm after storm, with the eastern Pacific running nearly double its normal activity and the central Pacific about 40% above average. Hawaii has paid a direct price: Hurricane Lowell knocked out power across Kauai and dropped nearly 18 inches of rain on the community of Hanalei, while Hurricane Lala passed close enough to the Big Island in August to deliver 80-mph wind gusts and widespread outages.
Experts urge against complacency in the Atlantic. The season runs through November, the Gulf of Mexico remains a viable breeding ground for late storms, and 1992 — a quiet year that produced the catastrophic Hurricane Andrew — stands as a permanent warning. The current calm is real, but it is borrowed time, shaped by forces that will eventually redirect their energy elsewhere.
The Atlantic basin is experiencing an almost eerie calm this September. No hurricanes have formed yet this year, and none are expected for at least another week, even though we are now deep into what should be peak hurricane season. The National Hurricane Center confirms this unusual quiet. Only five tropical storms have developed so far—all of them relatively weak and short-lived. On Saturday, September 12, 2026, the season set a record: it is now the longest stretch into the season without a single hurricane forming, at least since meteorologists began reliably tracking storms in the 1950s. The numbers tell the story starkly. Overall hurricane activity, measured by a formula that accounts for storm count, intensity, and duration, is at its lowest point in the satellite era. Storm activity in the Atlantic is running at just 7% of what is normal for this time of year.
The culprit is an enormous El Niño pattern—a natural warming of parts of the equatorial Pacific that reshapes weather systems worldwide. El Niño occurs roughly every two to seven years, and this one is proving exceptionally powerful. Kristen Corbosiero, an atmospheric science professor at the University at Albany, describes the current conditions with striking clarity: the Atlantic has become almost hostile to tropical cyclone formation. Any storm that tries to develop faces what she calls a "triple whammy." First, there is record-strength wind shear—strong easterly winds at low altitudes colliding with powerful westerly winds aloft, essentially tearing developing storms apart. In the region between Africa and the Caribbean where the strongest Atlantic hurricanes typically form, this wind shear exceeds what a tropical cyclone can withstand by about 45 miles per hour. It is an unprecedented level. Second, dry air starves any developing system of the moisture it needs. Third, high pressure pushes air downward, mechanically suppressing storm formation. Brian McNoldy, a hurricane expert at the University of Miami, puts it bluntly: "Their heads are cut off before they even have a chance."
What makes this suppression particularly striking is that it is happening despite record-warm ocean waters. The world's oceans have been at record temperatures for 100 consecutive days. Normally, warm water fuels hurricanes. Yet the Atlantic remains quiet. The explanation lies in a subtle but crucial distinction. Kerry Emanuel, a meteorology professor at MIT, explains that what matters most is not absolute water temperature but the temperature difference between the ocean surface and the air above it. Hurricanes are powered by heat flowing from the ocean to the atmosphere. When that temperature gap shrinks, storm activity declines. El Niño has warmed the atmosphere rapidly, but the Atlantic waters have warmed more slowly. The waters are several months behind in feeling the full effects of the pattern. This lag is temporary. As El Niño winds down and the atmosphere cools back toward normal, those warm Atlantic waters will persist, likely setting up an unusually active hurricane season in 2027.
Meanwhile, the Pacific is experiencing the inverse effect. El Niño tends to energize Pacific tropical cyclone activity by bringing moist air and suppressing wind shear. Storm activity in the eastern Pacific is running nearly double normal, with hurricanes persisting far longer than usual. The central Pacific is about 40% above normal. Phil Klotzbach, a hurricane expert at Colorado State University, describes it with wry understatement: "It's just a party out there, one right after the other in the eastern Pacific." The eastern Pacific has produced 16 named storms so far this year; the central Pacific has generated 20. Hawaii has felt the effects directly. Hurricane Lowell struck last week, knocking out power across the island of Kauai. The small community of Hanalei received 17.76 inches of rain. In August, Hurricane Lala passed 30 miles off the Big Island's coast, bringing wind gusts exceeding 80 miles per hour and widespread outages, though it did not make landfall.
Experts caution against complacency. Colorado State University's forecast predicted nine named storms for the Atlantic basin this year, and the season still has months to run. History offers a sobering reminder: 1992 began quietly but then produced Hurricane Andrew, one of the most destructive storms on record. Even a single powerful hurricane can be catastrophic. The Gulf of Mexico, where wind shear has remained relatively low, could still see strong storms develop later in the season. Corbosiero and others warn that conditions there favor late-season intensification. For now, the Atlantic remains in its strange, quiet state—a reminder that El Niño's reach extends across oceans and hemispheres, redirecting the planet's storm systems in ways that can take years to fully unfold.
Notable Quotes
It's really staggering, just how inhospitable the Atlantic is to anything that could form a tropical cyclone right now.— Kristen Corbosiero, University at Albany atmospheric science professor
I don't think anyone really foresaw it being this quiet. This is quite remarkable.— Brian McNoldy, University of Miami hurricane expert
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