Record-Breaking El Niño Supercharged by Climate Change Threatens Global Food Security

Along the Pacific coast of Peru and Chile, fishermen are waiting for anchovies that may not come. These small fish, which usually gather in vast schools in the cold, nutrient-rich waters off South America, have become an early warning system for something much larger. Their absence signals the arrival of one of the most powerful El Niño events scientists have ever recorded—and this time, it is being amplified by human-caused climate change in ways that threaten food systems and economies across the globe.

El Niño is a natural climate pattern that occurs when easterly trade winds in the Pacific weaken or reverse, allowing warm ocean currents to flow eastward toward South America. The phenomenon arrives around Christmas, which is why Peruvian fishermen named it El Niño de Navidad, the Christmas Child. When it happens, the warm water displaces the cold, nutrient-rich currents that anchovies depend on, and the fish vanish. But the effects ripple far beyond South America. El Niño can trigger droughts in some regions and severe flooding in others, reshaping weather patterns across continents and affecting billions of people.

What makes 2026-27 different is its intensity and timing. Scientists monitoring the event from satellites and ocean buoys report that temperatures in the equatorial Pacific could spike by 3 degrees Celsius when the phenomenon fully develops in late 2026 or early 2027. This far exceeds the typical 1 to 2 degree rise seen in past El Niño events. Adam Scaife, head of long-range forecasting at the United Kingdom's Met Office, told researchers that he has never seen an El Niño signal this intense in their forecasts. The event is also unfolding on top of an existing marine heatwave and a planet already warmed by greenhouse gas emissions. Stephanie Roe, a lead climate scientist with the World Wildlife Fund, described it as a "super El Niño"—a reminder of how climate change can intensify pressures on both people and ecosystems beyond anything they have previously endured.

The economic and humanitarian consequences are staggering. Economists at Citigroup have estimated that this super El Niño could inflict as much as $7 trillion in global economic losses over five years as crop failures cascade through supply chains and damage gross domestic product growth. The World Food Programme forecasts that 274 million people will face acute hunger by the end of 2027, an increase of 49 million from current levels. These figures reflect a world already stressed by high energy and fertilizer prices stemming from geopolitical conflict. The timing of El Niño's peak—December through February—coincides with the main planting season and crop-development period in South America, meaning the disruption will hit when farmers are most vulnerable. While some regions like Argentina and southern Brazil may see beneficial rainfall, other areas will face irregular precipitation and delayed planting, creating winners and losers in an unequal distribution of climate risk.

The impacts extend into ecosystems and human health. In the Pacific, the loss of anchovies and sardines is already causing deaths among seals, sea lions, and seabirds. Sebastian Cruz of the American Bird Conservancy reported that seabird strandings and deaths, which began occurring daily, exploded in June, showcasing the magnitude of the event across the vast Pacific expanse. On land, extreme heat combined with pre-existing drought will intensify heatwaves and compound other hazards—water scarcity, dust, wildfires, smoke, and flash floods. Disease outbreaks including malaria and dengue fever are expected to follow, particularly in regions where sanitation and health systems are already under strain. John Nairn, the World Meteorological Organization's senior extreme heat adviser, warned that each of these compounding hazards carries its own burden, from heat mortality and respiratory impacts to waterborne disease.

Perhaps most alarming for climate scientists is what this event means for global temperature records. During large El Niño events, significantly more heat is released from the ocean to the atmosphere, raising global average temperatures. Met Office climate scientist Nick Dunstone said that 2027 is very likely to replace 2024 as the hottest year on record. The World Meteorological Organization has launched an unprecedented mobilization to deliver forecasts and services aimed at saving lives and livelihoods. But the scale of preparation required—and the uncertainty about whether any preparation can truly be sufficient—underscores how thoroughly climate change has altered the rules of a phenomenon that has shaped human societies for centuries.