In a market defined by contradiction — rising indexes alongside fraying labor markets, fiscal largesse alongside tariff-induced consumption drag — portfolio manager Darren Sissons finds opportunity precisely where collective anxiety has driven prices below their underlying worth. His October selections of Danaher, LVMH, and Shell reflect an old and enduring truth: that fear, when it becomes consensus, tends to misprice things. The contrarian posture, he argues, has been 2025's most rewarding discipline, and the conditions that made it so have not yet exhausted themselves.
Portfolio Manager's October Picks: Danaher, LVMH, Shell Amid Market Tensions
Hold Your Nose and Buy has been the most profitable stance
Mark
You're recommending three stocks that are all out of favor for different reasons. What ties them together?
Mimi
They've all been discounted by specific fears that I think are overblown. Healthcare got hit by White House rhetoric. Europe and luxury got hit by tariff and recession talk. Energy is just permanently unloved. But the fundamentals haven't changed as much as the sentiment has.
Mark
The U.S. economy looks contradictory right now—strong stock market, but labor markets cracking, credit metrics deteriorating. How do you square that?
Mimi
The deficit spending is real, and it's flowing into risk assets. That's been the dominant force. The cracks are there, but they haven't mattered yet. The phrase I keep using is "Hold Your Nose and Buy." It's not elegant, but it's been the most profitable stance.
Mark
Why does Danaher specifically benefit from tariffs? That seems counterintuitive.
Mimi
Because foreign bioprocessing companies will build U.S. plants to avoid the tariffs. Danaher is already positioned in that space. It's not that tariffs are good—they're depressing consumption. But for a company like this, they create a moat.
Mark
LVMH has been hit hard. What makes you confident it recovers?
Mimi
Wealthy people don't stop buying luxury goods in recessions. They might trade down within luxury, but they don't exit it. The stock got caught in a panic about Europe and tariffs. That panic was overdone.
Mark
Shell is yielding 4 percent and doing buybacks. Why is energy so hated right now?
Mimi
ESG sentiment turned investors away from the sector years ago. But demand for energy keeps rising. Until we have fusion or massive nuclear buildout, we need fossil fuels. The market is pricing in a future that isn't coming.
Mark
What happens if rate cuts don't materialize or tariffs get worse?
Mimi
Then you're wrong. But I'm betting the cuts come and the tariff fears moderate. That's the trade.
The Pulse
- Markets are climbing even as the foundations beneath them show visible cracks — tariffs are suppressing the consumer spending that powers most of the American economy, while credit quality and commercial real estate quietly deteriorate.
- Healthcare and luxury stocks have been punished not by poor fundamentals but by political hostility and capital flight, creating valuations that Sissons sees as disconnected from long-term business reality.
- Energy remains deeply unloved despite relentlessly rising power demand, as ESG sentiment has reshaped investor behavior without meaningfully reshaping the world's appetite for carbon-based fuel.
- Anticipated rate cuts in both Canada and the U.S. could accelerate a rotation out of fixed income and into equities, adding further momentum to a market that has already defied the year's early pessimism.
- The through-line across all three picks is the same wager: that fear has done the pricing, and patience will do the profiting.
In a market defined by contradiction — rising indexes alongside fraying labor markets, fiscal largesse alongside tariff-induced consumption drag — portfolio manager Darren Sissons finds opportunity precisely where collective anxiety has driven prices below their underlying worth. His October selections of Danaher, LVMH, and Shell reflect an old and enduring truth: that fear, when it becomes consensus, tends to misprice things. The contrarian posture, he argues, has been 2025's most rewarding discipline, and the conditions that made it so have not yet exhausted themselves.
Darren Sissons of Campbell, Lee & Ross Investment Management entered October 2025 with three stock picks united by a single thesis — each had been sold down by fear he considered excessive. The phrase he reached for to describe the year's dominant market logic was blunt: "Hold Your Nose and Buy." It had, he noted, been the most profitable posture of 2025.
The economic backdrop resisted easy interpretation. Heavy U.S. government spending and a "Made in America" investment push were lifting stock indexes even as tariffs weighed on consumer activity, labor markets softened, and credit metrics worsened. Most investors had entered the year braced for weakness. Global markets delivered the opposite.
His first pick, Danaher, carried a modest dividend but a fortress balance sheet and $15 billion available for acquisitions. Its bioprocessing business stood to gain as foreign manufacturers built U.S. facilities to sidestep tariffs. Healthcare stocks had been battered by White House skepticism — drug pricing pressure and pharmaceutical tariffs — but companies insulated from those headwinds had recovered sharply, and Sissons saw Danaher's valuation as a rare entry point into a sector that seldom goes on sale.
LVMH, once Europe's largest company by market value, had been caught in the crossfire of tariff anxiety and recession fears that sent capital fleeing the continent. Sissons saw the exodus as an opening. Luxury goods tend to prove resilient in downturns because their customers remain wealthy enough to keep spending. The stock offered a 2.4 percent progressive dividend, and he anticipated a further acquisition announcement in the months ahead.
Shell completed the trio. Energy had been written off by much of the investment community, but demand for power continued to rise and the ESG movement had not meaningfully reduced consumption. Until fusion or expanded nuclear generation changed the equation, carbon-based energy would remain indispensable. Shell's 4 percent dividend and active buyback program reflected a business priced for its unpopularity rather than its economics.
Looking ahead, Sissons pointed to coming rate cuts in Canada and the U.S. as a potential catalyst — lower rates typically push investors out of bonds and into equities, providing another tailwind for markets. The year had rewarded those willing to buy what others were selling, and he saw no reason that dynamic had run its course.
Darren Sissons manages money at Campbell, Lee & Ross Investment Management, and in early October he was seeing opportunity in three places most investors were avoiding. His picks—Danaher, LVMH, and Shell—shared a common trait: they had all been marked down by fear, and he believed that fear was overdone.
The backdrop was contradictory in ways that made traditional analysis difficult. The U.S. government was spending heavily, running a sizable deficit that was pushing money into risk assets and driving stock indexes higher. At the same time, the "Made in America" policy push was attracting foreign investment into the country. Yet tariffs were dampening consumer spending, which accounts for the bulk of American economic activity. Labor markets were showing cracks. Credit metrics were deteriorating. Commercial real estate was struggling. The phrase that best captured the moment, Sissons said, was "Hold Your Nose and Buy"—and it had been the most profitable advice of 2025.
When the year began, most investors expected weakness. Instead, global markets surprised to the upside. Healthcare had been especially battered by White House hostility—particularly the administration's push for Most Favoured Nations drug pricing and tariffs on foreign pharmaceutical companies. But companies that could manufacture in the U.S. to sidestep those tariffs, and those whose exposure to Medicaid pricing was limited, had staged a strong recovery. It was a classic contrarian trade, and Sissons had positioned accordingly.
Danaher was his first pick. The company paid a modest dividend of 0.60 percent, but it had a fortress balance sheet and $15 billion in acquisition capacity. Its bioprocessing division stood to benefit as foreign competitors built U.S. production facilities to avoid tariffs. Healthcare stocks rarely went on sale, but the skepticism from Health Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. and the broader White House stance had pushed valuations to levels worth buying.
LVMH, the European luxury conglomerate, was his second choice. It had been the largest company in Europe by market value in 2024, but tariff fears and recession concerns had sent hot money fleeing the continent and the luxury sector. That exodus had created an opening. Luxury goods companies typically hold up well during economic slowdowns because their customers are wealthy enough to keep spending regardless. The stock yielded 2.40 percent on a progressive dividend, and Sissons expected another acquisition announcement in the coming months.
Shell rounded out the trio. Energy was deeply out of favor—investors had largely written off the sector as a relic. But demand for power kept rising, and the environmental, social, and governance movement had failed to meaningfully reduce consumption. Until fusion became commercially viable or nuclear generation expanded significantly across global grids, carbon-based energy would remain essential. Shell offered a 4 percent dividend and was running a substantial buyback program. Valuations reflected the sector's unpopularity, not the underlying economics.
Interest rate cuts in Canada and the U.S. were coming, Sissons noted, and rate cuts typically arrived in multiples. Lower rates would hurt bond investors, but they would likely trigger a rotation from fixed income into equities, providing another tailwind for stock indexes. The market had spent 2025 rewarding those willing to buy what everyone else was selling. That dynamic, he suggested, had further to run.
Notable Quotes
The phrase that best captured the moment was 'Hold Your Nose and Buy'—and it had been the most profitable advice of 2025.— Darren Sissons, Portfolio Manager, Campbell, Lee & Ross Investment Management
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