In a year shaped by tariff brinkmanship and the gravitational pull of midterm elections, portfolio manager Darren Sissons is reading political turbulence not as a reason to retreat, but as a map toward where capital will flow next. From Stockholm to Atlanta to Montreal, he finds companies whose durability rests not on momentum but on the quiet complexity of what they do — and how hard it would be for anyone else to do it as well. The oldest lesson in markets reasserts itself: volatility is not the enemy of the long-term investor; it is, more often, the invitation.
Portfolio Manager Sissons Picks Atlas Copco, ADP, CN Rail Amid Tariff Volatility
Tariffs proved a minor headwind, not a body blow
Mark
Why these three specifically? They seem to come from different corners of the market.
Mimi
They do, but they share something important: they're all defensive in their own way. They generate cash, they've proven they can raise dividends through cycles, and they're not dependent on the next big tech breakthrough to justify their valuations.
Mark
You mention tariffs as a major risk, but CN Rail actually thrived despite them. How do you square that?
Mimi
Most investors got the mechanics wrong. They assumed tariffs would choke logistics. But North America is integrated—goods move across borders constantly, tariffs or not. The company still moves the freight, still collects revenue. The real lesson is that complexity in supply chains doesn't kill demand; it just changes who profits.
Mark
ADP seems like the most vulnerable to disruption. Why hold it if AI can theoretically build a payroll system?
Mimi
Because theory and execution are different things. Tax law is a moving target. A startup would need to hire armies of accountants and lawyers just to stay compliant across 140 countries. Big corporations learned in the 2000s that they'd rather pay a trusted vendor than bet their payroll on a startup's promise.
Mark
What's the biggest risk to this whole thesis?
Mimi
Canada. The USMCA renegotiation could go either way—it could be a tailwind or a disaster. We won't know until mid-year. That's why I'm watching it closely.
Mark
You mentioned precious metals and commodities. Are those part of the portfolio?
Mimi
They're positioned well, but they're not the core. The real opportunity right now is in the software sell-off. Panic selling of quality companies always creates openings for patient investors.
Der Puls
- A U.S. Supreme Court ruling struck down one tariff regime only for a 15% global tariff to rise in its place — a signal that political will, not legal constraint, is now the dominant market force.
- With Republican congressional majorities at risk ahead of November midterms, the White House has every incentive to flood the economy with fiscal stimulus, repeating the deficit spending and defense surge that lifted markets in 2025.
- Canada sits at the sharpest edge of uncertainty, with USMCA renegotiation underway and an outcome that could deliver either a significant windfall or a serious wound to the domestic economy.
- AI-driven panic selling in enterprise software has created entry points in companies like ADP, whose true moat — navigating the labyrinthine complexity of global tax and payroll law — no algorithm is close to replicating.
- CN Rail, abandoned by investors fearing tariff devastation, quietly grew revenue, raised its dividend, and bought back $2 billion of its own stock — rewarding those who held their nerve.
In a year shaped by tariff brinkmanship and the gravitational pull of midterm elections, portfolio manager Darren Sissons is reading political turbulence not as a reason to retreat, but as a map toward where capital will flow next. From Stockholm to Atlanta to Montreal, he finds companies whose durability rests not on momentum but on the quiet complexity of what they do — and how hard it would be for anyone else to do it as well. The oldest lesson in markets reasserts itself: volatility is not the enemy of the long-term investor; it is, more often, the invitation.
Darren Sissons, portfolio manager at Campbell, Lee & Ross Investment Management, is building his 2026 strategy around a familiar paradox: political disorder tends to generate fiscal spending, and fiscal spending tends to be good for markets. The year has opened with the same volatility that defined 2025, but the contours have shifted in ways that matter.
The tariff story is central. After the U.S. Supreme Court struck down the president's tariff regime, a 15% global tariff was imposed anyway — a move Sissons reads as politically motivated. With midterm elections approaching and Republican congressional control uncertain, the White House has strong incentive to sustain household spending and corporate earnings before voters decide. In 2025, a seven percent budget deficit and a 13% surge in defense spending did exactly that. Sissons expects similar fiscal medicine in 2026, with Europe leaning on defense, Asia remaining opaque, and Canada facing genuine two-sided risk as USMCA renegotiation unfolds.
His first pick is Atlas Copco, the Swedish vacuum technology leader. A recent softening in semiconductor demand created an entry point into a company that yields 1.8% and has grown its dividend 10% annually for five years. Its asset-light model generates returns on invested capital above 20%, and since 2016 it has returned 19.9% annualized in Canadian dollar terms.
Automatic Data Processing — which processes paychecks for one in six Americans and operates across 140 countries — is his second. A 51-year streak of dividend increases marks it as an aristocrat of income investing. The recent AI-driven sell-off in enterprise software has opened a window, but Sissons is skeptical that artificial intelligence will disrupt ADP anytime soon: the real complexity isn't building a payroll system, it's navigating the endless maze of city, county, state, federal, and international tax obligations. Long-term holders have been rewarded, with 15-year annualized returns in Canadian dollars reaching 16.17%.
Canadian National Railway completes the trio. Last year's tariff fears proved overblown — revenue grew, the dividend rose, and CN spent $2 billion on buybacks. The integrated nature of North American logistics absorbed the tariff headwind without structural damage. The dividend now yields 2.4% and has been raised three percent for 2026, with a fresh $2 billion buyback providing downside support.
Beyond these three, Sissons sees precious metals continuing their run at a measured pace, commodities broadly well-positioned, and the AI software downturn offering selective opportunities for patient capital. The largest variable remains Canada's trade negotiations — an outcome that could reshape the investment landscape before the year is half over.
Darren Sissons, a portfolio manager at Campbell, Lee & Ross Investment Management, is steering clients through 2026 with a thesis built on political turbulence and the fiscal spending it tends to trigger. The year has opened much like 2025 did—with volatility baked in—but the landscape has shifted in ways that matter for where money should go.
The immediate backdrop is tariffs. In late 2025, the U.S. Supreme Court struck down the sitting president's tariff regime, only to watch him impose a 15 percent global tariff anyway. That move signals something deeper: with midterm elections looming in November and Republicans facing the prospect of losing control of the Senate or House, the White House has strong incentive to boost household spending and corporate profits before voters head to the polls. In 2025, that meant a seven percent budget deficit paired with a 13 percent jump in defense spending. Markets rewarded it. Corporate earnings rose, jobs held, and stock valuations expanded. Sissons expects similar fiscal medicine in 2026, though the delivery mechanism may vary by region. Europe will lean on defense spending. Asia remains a puzzle—China, the region's economic center, hasn't opened its stimulus spigot despite a struggling domestic economy. Canada sits in genuine uncertainty as the U.S.-Mexico-Canada trade agreement enters renegotiation in the first half of 2026, an outcome that could cut either way.
Against this backdrop, Sissons has identified three stocks worth owning. Atlas Copco, the Swedish vacuum technology leader, caught a break when semiconductor demand softened recently, creating an entry point. The company yields 1.8 percent and has grown its dividend an average of 10 percent annually over the past five years. Its strategy of small, targeted acquisitions keeps costs low and risk manageable while expanding what it can do and where it can sell. The business model is lean—it doesn't tie up capital in heavy assets—yet it generates returns on invested capital above 20 percent. Since 2016, the stock has returned 19.9 percent annualized in Canadian dollar terms.
Automatic Data Processing processes paychecks for one in six Americans and operates in 140 countries. It's a dividend aristocrat, having raised its payout for 51 consecutive years. The recent sell-off in enterprise software, driven by artificial intelligence hype, has created an opening for long-term buyers. Here's the catch: while AI could theoretically build a payroll system, the real complexity lies in the tax code. City, county, state, federal, and international tax obligations vary wildly. Spousal support, child support, wage garnishments, and other deductions create a maze that startups would struggle to navigate. The Dot.com era taught big corporations a hard lesson about betting on small, unproven technology firms. Long-term holders of ADP have been rewarded handsomely—10-year and 15-year annualized returns in Canadian dollars sit at 11.7 percent and 16.17 percent respectively.
Canadian National Railway rounds out the trio. Last year, investors fled the stock on fears that U.S. tariffs would cripple it. They were wrong. Revenue grew, the dividend rose, and the company spent $2 billion buying back its own shares. The integrated nature of North American logistics meant tariffs proved a minor headwind, not a body blow. The dividend now yields 2.4 percent and has been increased three percent for 2026. A new $2 billion buyback authorization provides a floor under the stock if markets weaken. Sissons treats CN Rail as a core holding and typically adds on dips.
The broader market picture includes precious metals continuing their run, though at a slower pace, and other commodities positioned to benefit from rising investor appetite. The AI-driven software downturn, meanwhile, has created pockets of genuine opportunity for patient capital. What happens in Canada over the next few months—as trade negotiations unfold—will matter enormously. Until then, Sissons is betting on fiscal stimulus, dividend growth, and the staying power of companies that do one thing exceptionally well.
Bemerkenswerte Zitate
Investors that sold the company assuming U.S. tariffs would adversely impact it were wrong— Darren Sissons, on CN Rail
The integrated nature of North American logistics means tariffs were a minor headwind— Darren Sissons, on CN Rail's tariff resilience
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