Philippines optimistic South China Sea Code of Conduct could be finalized by year-end

Manila's foreign ministry is betting on a finish line. On Tuesday, after sitting down with Malaysia's top diplomat in the capital, the Philippines' Foreign Secretary Ma. Theresa Lazaro walked out of their joint commission meeting with a public declaration: the long-running negotiations over how nations should conduct themselves in the South China Sea could wrap up before the year closes.

The timing matters. These talks have been grinding forward for years, touching on some of the world's most fraught maritime territory—waters claimed in whole or in part by multiple countries, waters where fishing boats get harassed, where military vessels shadow each other, where the rules of engagement remain dangerously unclear. The Code of Conduct being negotiated is meant to be the guardrail, the agreement that says: here is how we will behave toward one another. Here is what is off-limits.

Lazaro's optimism rests on something concrete: momentum. The negotiating parties have locked into a monthly meeting schedule, she noted, and that regular cadence is producing results. Malaysia, which is co-chairing the talks alongside China, has been pulling its weight. The Philippines wants that pace maintained. "We remain optimistic about the conclusion of the negotiations within the year," Lazaro said in her statement, and the phrasing suggests not hope alone but a reading of the room—a sense that the parties are actually moving toward agreement on the hardest remaining questions.

But those questions are genuinely hard. Both the Philippines and Malaysia, in their bilateral meeting, circled back to what they called "illegal and coercive actions" happening in the waters—moves that infringe on the rights and entitlements of coastal states. Neither country named names in the official readout, but the reference is unmistakable. This is the friction point: one nation's assertive behavior is another nation's violation of international law. The Code of Conduct, if it works, would establish what counts as acceptable and what does not.

The two countries also reaffirmed their commitment to the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea—UNCLOS—the foundational treaty that governs maritime conduct globally. Self-restraint, adherence to international law, a rules-based order: these are the principles both sides say they're anchoring to. Whether all parties at the negotiating table share that commitment equally remains an open question.

Beyond the South China Sea, the Philippines and Malaysia used the meeting to touch on a wider regional landscape. Myanmar's instability came up. So did the long-running border tensions between Cambodia and Thailand. The Middle East featured in their conversation. The two countries also discussed defense cooperation, including growing military-to-military ties and a trilateral arrangement that brings in Indonesia.

On a more intimate scale, the two nations talked about protecting their own people. Hundreds of thousands of Filipinos work in Malaysia, and both governments committed to strengthening the social protections available to migrant workers—healthcare, legal recourse, fair wages. They also discussed trade, investment, digital economy cooperation, and artificial intelligence development.

What happens next depends on whether the monthly negotiating rhythm holds and whether the parties can actually resolve those sensitive remaining issues—the ones about coercive actions and coastal rights. If they do, the South China Sea could have its first binding agreement on conduct. If they don't, the waters remain a place where the rules are written in ambiguity and enforced by whoever has the bigger boat.