A quarter of the state has already decided against him
No Espírito Santo de 2022, Renato Casagrande chega à disputa pelo governo estadual carregando o peso favorável de seis anos de gestão acumulada — e os números refletem isso. Uma pesquisa Real Time Big Data encomendada pela Record TV revela que 61% dos capixabas aprovam sua administração, e quase metade do eleitorado já declara intenção de votar nele. É o retrato de um líder que construiu uma vantagem sólida, mas que ainda carrega, como todo governante, a sombra dos que o rejeitam — um quarto do eleitorado que lembra que nenhuma hegemonia é absoluta.
- Casagrande entra na corrida eleitoral com 44% das intenções de voto, uma margem que transforma seus adversários mais próximos — ambos com 12% — em figurantes de uma disputa que parece decidida antes de começar.
- A aprovação de 61% esconde camadas: apenas 18% consideram o governo excelente, enquanto 21% o veem como apenas regular — sinais de que o entusiasmo tem teto.
- Com 25% de rejeição, Casagrande lidera também entre os mais rejeitados, revelando que sua força eleitoral coexiste com uma resistência consolidada que a campanha precisará administrar.
- A corrida ao Senado conta outra história: Meneguelli, Malta e Rose de Freitas estão tecnicamente empatados, com apenas uma cadeira em disputa e o resultado genuinamente em aberto.
- Quando os nomes dos candidatos são retirados da pergunta, Casagrande ainda lidera com 21% espontâneos — um indicativo de que sua vantagem não depende apenas do reconhecimento de chapa, mas de presença real no imaginário do eleitor.
Renato Casagrande chega à eleição de 2022 com um dos ativos mais valiosos da política: aprovação popular consolidada. Pesquisa Real Time Big Data, encomendada pela Record TV e divulgada em 25 de maio, mostra que 61% dos capixabas aprovam sua gestão — sendo 27% que a consideram boa e 18% excelente. Outros 21% a avaliam como regular, enquanto 25% a reprovam em diferentes graus.
Nas intenções de voto estimuladas, o governador domina com 44%, deixando para trás o ex-deputado federal Carlos Manato (PL) e o senador Fabiano Contarato (PT), ambos com 12%. Os demais candidatos testados não ultrapassam os 6%. A pesquisa rodou diferentes cenários de composição de chapa, e em todos eles Casagrande manteve liderança folgada — chegando a 50% quando Contarato é excluído, sugerindo que a divisão da oposição amplifica ainda mais sua vantagem.
O levantamento, feito por telefone com 1.500 eleitores nos dias 23 e 24 de maio, tem margem de erro de três pontos percentuais e nível de confiança de 95%. Mas os números também trazem alertas: a taxa de rejeição de Casagrande, em 25%, é a mais alta entre todos os candidatos avaliados — um lembrete de que liderança e vulnerabilidade podem coexistir.
Na disputa pelo Senado, o cenário é radicalmente diferente. Com apenas uma vaga em jogo, o ex-prefeito de Colatina Sergio Meneguelli lidera com 22%, mas está tecnicamente empatado com o ex-senador Magno Malta (20%) e a senadora Rose de Freitas (16%). Coronel Ramalho aparece com 8%, seguido pelo deputado federal Da Vitória (7%) e pelo deputado estadual Sérgio Majeski (5%). Doze por cento dos eleitores declararam voto em branco ou nulo, e 10% ainda não se decidiram — tornando essa corrida genuinamente imprevisível.
Renato Casagrande enters the 2022 gubernatorial race in Espírito Santo with commanding political momentum. A Real Time Big Data poll commissioned by Record TV, released on May 25, found that six in ten residents approve of his administration—a substantial cushion as the campaign season accelerates.
The approval breaks down into distinct layers of support. Nearly half the state's voters, 45%, view his governance positively. Within that group, 27% describe the administration as good, while 18% call it excellent. Another 21% rate it as merely adequate. The remaining quarter splits between those who see it as poor (16%) or terrible (9%), with 9% unable or unwilling to offer judgment.
When voters are presented with a list of candidates and asked whom they would support, Casagrande dominates. He captures 44% of stated voting intention, a lead so wide that his nearest competitors—former federal deputy Carlos Manato of the PL and Senator Fabiano Contarato of the PT—each register only 12%. The gap widens further down the field. Former Serra mayor Audifax Barcelos holds 6%, while federal deputy Felipe Rigoni, ex-vice governor Cesar Colnago, and state legislative president Erick Musso cluster at 3% each. Former Vitória finance secretary Aridelmo Teixeira trails at 1%.
The poll tested multiple scenarios to account for shifting candidacies. When Colnago is replaced by PSD alternative Guerino Zanon, Casagrande's support dips slightly to 43%, with Manato steady at 12% and Contarato dropping to 11%. In a third scenario excluding Contarato entirely, Casagrande surges to 50%, suggesting his strength partly derives from a divided opposition. Even when voters are asked unprompted—without seeing candidate names—Casagrande leads with 21%, while Manato and Contarato manage 4% and 3% respectively.
Yet the numbers contain warnings. Casagrande's rejection rate stands at 25%, the highest among all tested candidates. Manato and Contarato each face 20% rejection. This suggests that while Casagrande commands a plurality, a meaningful portion of the electorate has already formed negative views. The poll surveyed 1,500 voters by telephone on May 23 and 24, with a margin of error of three percentage points and a 95% confidence level.
The Senate race tells a different story. Former Colatina mayor Sergio Meneguelli leads numerically with 22% support, but the margin is narrow enough to constitute a technical tie with former senator Magno Malta at 20% and incumbent Senator Rose de Freitas at 16%. Only one Senate seat is contested this cycle, as the other two incumbents—Fabiano Contarato and Marcos do Val—retain their positions until 2026. Coronel Ramalho, the state's former security secretary, holds 8%, federal deputy Da Vitória has 7%, and state deputy Sérgio Majeski trails at 5%. Twelve percent of voters indicated they would cast blank or null ballots, while 10% remained undecided.
Notable Quotes
45% of Espírito Santo residents view Casagrande's administration positively, with 27% calling it good and 18% excellent— Real Time Big Data poll
The Hearth Conversation Another angle on the story
Why does a 61% approval rating matter so much in a race where Casagrande already leads with 44% of voting intention?
Because approval and voting intention measure different things. Approval tells you how people feel about what he's already done. Voting intention tells you what they might do next. The gap between them—17 points—suggests there's room for movement, either toward him or away.
The rejection rate of 25% seems significant. What does that mean for his path forward?
It means a quarter of the state has already decided against him, regardless of what happens in the campaign. That's his ceiling problem. He can't persuade people who've already closed the door. His strategy has to be holding the 44% and peeling off undecideds.
Why does the opposition seem so fragmented?
Multiple candidates are splitting the anti-Casagrande vote. Manato and Contarato are both at 12%, which suggests neither has consolidated the opposition. If one drops out or one consolidates, the race tightens. Right now Casagrande benefits from that division.
The Senate race looks completely different—a three-way tie. Why the contrast?
Gubernatorial races often have an incumbent advantage, especially when approval is high. Senate races are more open. Meneguelli, Malta, and Rose de Freitas are all credible, and none has the institutional weight Casagrande carries as sitting governor.
What should we watch between now and October?
Whether the opposition consolidates around a single candidate, whether Casagrande's rejection rate grows as campaigning intensifies, and whether his approval holds or erodes. The poll is a snapshot from late May. Elections are decided in the final weeks.