Seven months after an improbable championship, the Seattle Seahawks open the 2026 NFL season as defending Super Bowl champions and 3.5-point favorites against the New England Patriots — the same team they dominated in February. The rematch arrives not as a coronation but as a reckoning, asking whether New England's path to the Super Bowl reflected genuine growth or fortunate circumstance. In the larger arc of sport, this game poses the oldest question: was last year's result a revelation, or merely a favorable arrangement of conditions?
Patriots Face Seahawks in Super Bowl Rematch; SI Betting Picks Week 1 Opener
The two teams weren't in the same tier, and nothing has changed
Mark
So the Seahawks were underdogs to even make the playoffs last year, and now they're defending champs. That's genuinely wild. But why does that automatically mean they beat the Patriots again?
Mimi
Because the Super Bowl wasn't close. Seattle dominated. And the Patriots' whole 2025 season was built on things that won't repeat—an easy schedule, winning a lot of one-score games, then facing injured teams in the playoffs. Now they have a harder schedule and they're facing the same team that already beat them decisively.
Luke
But hold on. The Seahawks lost three defensive starters in the offseason. Tariq Woolen, Boye Mafe, Kenneth Walker. That's real attrition. And they're starting a rookie running back. How much has actually changed?
Mimi
Fair point. But the Patriots' run defense was 16th in the league last year. Walker rushed for 135 yards against them in the Super Bowl. So even with a rookie, Seattle should be able to move the ball on the ground.
Mark
What about the Patriots' offense? They added A.J. Brown and they have Drake Maye, who threw 31 touchdowns last year.
Mimi
Brown is a weapon, absolutely. And Maye can throw the deep ball. But he's facing arguably the best defense in football. The Patriots' offensive line got pushed around in the Super Bowl, and that's not going to change.
Luke
The betting picks are interesting though. They're not saying the Patriots will lose by three. They're betting on individual plays—Brown scoring, Stevenson getting 24 receiving yards, a rookie running back going over 51 rushing yards. Those are closer calls than the spread suggests.
Mark
So the game might be competitive, but Seattle still wins?
Mimi
That's the read. The Seahawks are better, they've already proven it, and the Patriots have to prove they can do something they haven't done yet—win on a hard schedule against a great team.
Luke
The one thing I'd flag: we're talking about a Wednesday night game, which is unusual. That's a variable nobody's really accounting for in these picks.
The Pulse
- Seattle enters as defending champions after one of the most unexpected Super Bowl runs in recent memory, yet must replace three key defensive starters — including a cornerback, a pass rusher, and their starting running back — before the first snap of the new season.
- New England's Super Bowl appearance last year was built on scaffolding that has since been dismantled: the easiest schedule in the league, a string of close-game wins, and an injured AFC playoff bracket that cleared their path.
- Rookie Jadarian Price steps into a starting role for Seattle on opening night, tasked with replicating the 135-yard blueprint Kenneth Walker III ran against this same Patriots defense in February.
- Drake Maye and new weapon A.J. Brown give New England a more dangerous passing attack than the one Seattle faced in the Super Bowl, offering the Patriots their clearest path to keeping the game close.
- Betting analysts are aligned behind Seattle at minus-3.5, arguing the structural gap between these teams has not meaningfully closed — and that New England's favorable circumstances will not repeat.
Seven months after an improbable championship, the Seattle Seahawks open the 2026 NFL season as defending Super Bowl champions and 3.5-point favorites against the New England Patriots — the same team they dominated in February. The rematch arrives not as a coronation but as a reckoning, asking whether New England's path to the Super Bowl reflected genuine growth or fortunate circumstance. In the larger arc of sport, this game poses the oldest question: was last year's result a revelation, or merely a favorable arrangement of conditions?
The 2026 NFL season opens Wednesday night with a rematch nobody quite expected to unfold this way. The Seattle Seahawks — improbable Super Bowl champions after a title run few saw coming — host the New England Patriots in a game carrying the weight of unfinished business. Seattle enters as a 3.5-point favorite, and the betting community is largely in agreement: the defending champions should win again.
New England's road to the Super Bowl last season was built on unusual fortune. The Patriots navigated one of the easiest schedules in recent NFL history, won seven of ten single-score games, and benefited from an injured AFC playoff bracket that cleared their path to the championship. Against Seattle in February, they were dominated. Now they face a harder schedule and the same opponent — without the advantages that carried them there.
Seattle is not without its own vulnerabilities. The Seahawks lost cornerback Tariq Woolen, pass rusher Boye Mafe, and running back Kenneth Walker III in the offseason. Rookie Jadarian Price will make his NFL debut as the starting back, with Zach Charbonnet sidelined by injury. Price faces a Patriots run defense that ranked 16th in opponent rush EPA last season — the same unit Walker gashed for 135 yards in the Super Bowl.
For New England, the offensive picture has shifted. Veteran receiver A.J. Brown joins Drake Maye, who threw 31 touchdowns last season and showed elite accuracy on deep balls. With Maye's previous deep target Kayshon Boutte gone, Brown figures to command a heavy share of looks immediately. In the backfield, Rhamondre Stevenson absorbs a larger role with TreVeyon Henderson out, bringing a reliable receiving presence that should remain relevant if the Patriots fall behind.
Senior editor Iain MacMillan is backing Seattle in his season-long Road to 272 column, reasoning that the two teams were simply not in the same tier in February and that nothing has changed enough to alter that conclusion. Peter Dewey is targeting player props — Brown to score a touchdown, Stevenson to exceed 23.5 receiving yards, Price to rush for more than 51.5 yards — reflecting a belief that Seattle's defense will be formidable but not flawless, and that New England's new pieces will generate enough to keep the game competitive even in a losing effort.
Wednesday's kickoff carries the gravity of a Super Bowl rematch with the stakes of a Week 1 game. For Seattle, the challenge is sustaining championship-level defense while absorbing significant personnel losses. For New England, the task is steeper still: proving that last year's run was the beginning of something real, not the product of circumstances that have already expired.
The 2026 NFL season opens Wednesday night with a rematch that nobody quite expected to happen this way. The Seattle Seahawks, defending Super Bowl champions after one of the most improbable title runs in recent memory, will host the New England Patriots in a game that carries the weight of unfinished business. Seven months ago, these teams met in Super Bowl LX with Seattle favored as underdogs—a team that wasn't even expected to make the playoffs in 2025—and the Seahawks dominated. Now, in the regular season opener, Seattle enters as a 3.5-point favorite, and the betting community is largely aligned: the defending champs should win again.
The Patriots' path to the Super Bowl last season was built on an unusual foundation. New England faced one of the easiest schedules in recent NFL history and thrived in close games, winning seven of ten contests decided by a single score. In the postseason, the Patriots encountered nothing but injured opponents on the AFC side of the bracket, a fortunate draw that carried them all the way to the championship game. Now they face a dramatically different reality: a much tougher schedule and an opponent that has already proven it can beat them decisively. The Seahawks' defense, widely considered the best in football, presents a particular problem. Will Campbell, the Patriots' offensive line anchor, was overpowered in the Super Bowl, and there is little reason to believe the rematch will go differently.
Seattle, however, is not without vulnerabilities heading into Wednesday. The team lost three significant defensive pieces in the offseason: cornerback Tariq Woolen, pass rusher Boye Mafe, and running back Kenneth Walker III. The Seahawks will lean heavily on rookie running back Jadarian Price in his NFL debut, with starting back Zach Charbonnet sidelined by injury. Price will face a Patriots run defense that ranked 16th in opponent rush EPA last season—a weakness Seattle is positioned to exploit. Walker himself rushed for 135 yards against New England in the Super Bowl, a blueprint the Seahawks will attempt to follow with their young replacement.
For New England, the offensive weapons have shifted. The Patriots acquired A.J. Brown, the veteran receiver who spent four seasons with Philadelphia before reuniting with coach Mike Vrabel. Brown's 2025 season in Philadelphia was uneven—he scored 11, seven, seven, and seven touchdowns across his four years there—but he found the end zone four times in the final six games he played. Now he pairs with Drake Maye, a quarterback who threw 31 touchdown passes last season and demonstrated elite accuracy on deep balls. Maye's previous deep-ball target, Kayshon Boutte, is no longer in New England, opening opportunity for Brown to command a heavy target share from the opening drive.
The Patriots' backfield will also look different. TreVeyon Henderson, the backup running back, is out with an ankle injury, which means Rhamondre Stevenson will handle a significant workload. Stevenson caught 32 of 37 targets last season for 345 yards and two scores in just 14 games, establishing himself as the preferred option on passing downs. In the Super Bowl loss to Seattle, he caught five passes for 40 yards and a touchdown. Over his final six regular season games, Stevenson accumulated at least 22 receiving yards in five of them, a consistency that should continue if the Patriots fall behind and rely on checkdowns in the second half.
The betting consensus reflects Seattle's structural advantages. Senior editor Iain MacMillan, who is picking every NFL game for the entire season in his Road to 272 column, is backing the Seahawks at minus-3.5. His reasoning is straightforward: the two teams were not in the same tier in the Super Bowl, and nothing has changed enough to suggest a different outcome now. The Patriots' success last season was built on favorable circumstances—an easy schedule, close-game luck, and an injured playoff bracket—that will not repeat. Peter Dewey, meanwhile, is targeting individual player performances: A.J. Brown to score a touchdown at plus-160 odds, Rhamondre Stevenson to exceed 23.5 receiving yards, and Jadarian Price to rush for more than 51.5 yards in his debut. The picks reflect a belief that Seattle's defense will be stout but not perfect, and that New England's new offensive pieces will generate enough production to keep the game competitive even if the Seahawks ultimately prevail.
Wednesday night's kickoff arrives with the weight of a Super Bowl rematch but the stakes of a regular season game—which means everything that happened in February is prologue, and both teams must prove they can execute again. For Seattle, the challenge is replacing three defensive starters while maintaining the dominance that carried them to a championship. For New England, the task is steeper: overcome a tougher schedule, a better opponent, and the reality that their path to the Super Bowl last year was paved with advantages that no longer exist.
Notable Quotes
I see absolutely no reason why we shouldn't ride with the defending Super Bowl champions in this game. I was big on the Seahawks in the Super Bowl, as I felt that these two teams weren't in the same tier, and I was proven right.— Iain MacMillan, SI Betting senior editor
The Patriots had a historically easy schedule last season and went 7-3 in one-score games. They had things break their way in the postseason, playing nothing but injured teams throughout the AFC side of the bracket.— Iain MacMillan, on why New England's 2025 success may not repeat
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