Everyone's already counting Gaethje out and we've learned you can't do that
In the strange theater of modern combat sports, a fighter who has faced both men is offering the prediction few others dare to make: that the underdog, not the champion, will leave the White House lawn in June with undisputed gold. Paddy Pimblett's endorsement of Justin Gaethje over Ilia Topuria is not mere contrarianism — it is the considered read of someone who has felt the hunger of both men firsthand, and who believes that motivation, home soil, and the weight of a final chance can quietly outmeasure the math of favoritism.
- Gaethje enters as the challenger with two interim titles and a history of falling just short of undisputed glory — and he has said publicly this is his last real shot.
- Topuria holds the belt but returns from a period away from competition, raising quiet questions about timing and ring sharpness.
- Pimblett, who recently went five rounds with Gaethje and spent years feuding with Topuria, is uniquely positioned to read the intangibles others overlook.
- The White House setting adds a layer of symbolic weight that Pimblett believes could tip the scales — Gaethje fighting on home soil, in front of his president, with everything on the line.
- The broader lightweight division watches closely, with Pimblett himself eyeing a return around June or July and keeping one eye on where the title will land.
Paddy Pimblett has been closer to this fight than almost anyone — he recently went five rounds with Justin Gaethje and spent years trading public barbs with Ilia Topuria. So when he sat down to share his thoughts on the UFC's most unusual main event, his prediction carried a particular kind of weight: Gaethje, he believes, will upset Topuria in June at the White House.
The surface read favors Topuria. He is the sitting undisputed champion, returning to competition on a timeline he himself predicted. Gaethje, twice an interim titleholder and a former BMF champion, has been here before — he challenged Charles Oliveira and Khabib Nurmagomedov for undisputed gold and came up short both times. Those losses follow his name. He has said this opportunity is his last real shot at the belt.
What Pimblett finds compelling is not the statistics but the context. Gaethje will be fighting on home soil, in front of his president, carrying the symbolic freight of the White House lawn. That kind of motivation, Pimblett suggested, is not something that shows up in the odds. Topuria may have momentum and the champion's advantage, but hunger and timing are different things — and Pimblett sensed that Gaethje might simply want it more.
He was careful not to overreach. It's a fistfight, he acknowledged, and either man can win. But he offered what he called a sneaky suspicion — the intuition of someone who has trained alongside these fighters and felt their intensity up close. The White House bout will reshape the lightweight division regardless of outcome, and Pimblett will be watching closely, while also awaiting news of his own next fight, which he hopes will land sometime around June or July.
Paddy Pimblett has seen both men up close—fought one of them recently, spent years trading barbs with the other—and when he sat down to record his thoughts on the UFC's most unusual main event, he made a prediction that almost nobody else is willing to make. Justin Gaethje, he believes, will beat Ilia Topuria in June at the White House. The upset call comes from someone who understands the landscape of the lightweight division better than most, and it carries weight precisely because Pimblett is one of the few voices willing to say it out loud.
The setup is straightforward enough. Topuria holds the undisputed title. Gaethje, twice an interim champion and a former BMF titleholder, arrives as the challenger. On paper, Topuria is the favorite—he's the sitting champion, the one with momentum. But Gaethje has been here before. He fought Charles Oliveira for undisputed gold and came up short. He fought Khabib Nurmagomedov and lost. Those defeats linger in the conversation around him, a weight that follows his name into every new opportunity. This time, Gaethje has said publicly, is his last real shot at the undisputed belt.
Pimblett's recent five-round fight with Gaethje gave him a window into the American's current form and mindset. The Scouser emerged from that bout convinced that Gaethje still has something left to prove, still has the hunger to pull off something unexpected. In a YouTube video released after Dana White announced the card, Pimblett laid out his reasoning with the ease of someone speaking to friends rather than making a formal prediction. He called both men his mates, acknowledged the magnitude of fighting at the White House, and then made his case: everyone has already written Gaethje off, but history shows that's a mistake. You cannot count him out.
What interests Pimblett most is the context. Gaethje will be fighting in front of his president, on his home soil, with the kind of symbolic weight that comes with competing on the White House lawn. That motivation, Pimblett suggested, could be the difference. Topuria, meanwhile, is returning after time away from competition—he said he would be back around this time, and June fits the timeline. But timing and motivation are not the same thing. Pimblett seemed to sense that Gaethje might want this more, might be willing to take greater risks, might be fueled by something deeper than a title shot.
Still, Pimblett was careful not to overstate his conviction. He acknowledged the obvious: it's a fistfight, and in fistfights, anything can happen. Either man could win. The variables are too many, the skill levels too close, for certainty. But he had what he called a sneaky suspicion, the kind of intuition that comes from having trained alongside these fighters, having felt their intensity firsthand. The White House bout carries implications for the entire division, he noted, which is why he'll be watching closely. But his own future is also in motion. He's hoping to learn in the coming weeks when his next fight will be, ideally sometime around June or July, riding the momentum of his recent performance.
The prediction itself is a small thing in the larger ecosystem of fight commentary—one fighter's opinion among thousands. But it matters because Pimblett is not a casual observer. He has skin in this game, history with both men, and the credibility that comes from having competed at the highest level. When he says Gaethje might surprise everyone, he's not speaking from the outside looking in. He's speaking from someone who knows what it takes to win at this level, who understands the intangibles that don't always show up in the statistics. Whether his hunch proves right will be settled on the White House lawn in June, but for now, it stands as one of the few voices in the room willing to bet against the favorite.
Notable Quotes
I've got a sneaky suspicion that Gaethje might pull off an upset here and surprise everyone— Paddy Pimblett
It's in front of his president and his home country so we'll have to see how that one plays out because it's big implications for the whole division— Paddy Pimblett
The Hearth Conversation Another angle on the story
Why does Pimblett's prediction carry more weight than the typical pundit's take?
Because he's not theorizing from a distance. He just spent five rounds with Gaethje. He knows what that man's capable of right now, in this moment, in this body. That's not the same as watching tape.
But Topuria is the champion. Shouldn't that count for something?
It does. But Pimblett seems to be reading something in Gaethje's hunger that the oddsmakers aren't pricing in. A man fighting at home, in front of his country's leadership, with nothing left to lose—that's a different animal than a challenger on neutral ground.
Is Pimblett hedging his bet by saying "anyone can beat anyone"?
Maybe a little. But he's also being honest about the sport. He's not claiming certainty. He's saying he has a feeling, and he's explaining why. That's more useful than false confidence.
What does this say about Gaethje's place in the division right now?
That he's still dangerous, still capable of shocking people, but also that he's running out of chances. This is his last real opportunity, and everyone knows it—including him. That desperation can either break you or sharpen you.
Why would Pimblett care about this fight beyond the obvious?
Because the outcome shapes who he fights next. If Gaethje wins, the division looks different. If Topuria wins, the path forward changes. Pimblett's own future is tied to how this plays out.