A political provocation that could endanger soldiers and police
En los lugares donde lo sagrado y lo político se superponen, la violencia rara vez necesita mucha provocación. En Jerusalén, durante la semana en que el Ramadán y la Pascua judía coincidieron, los enfrentamientos en la Explanada de las Mezquitas dejaron más de 170 heridos y encendieron una cadena de represalias que llevó a cohetes desde Gaza y bombardeos israelíes de madrugada. El mundo observa, como ha observado antes, preguntándose si el ciclo encontrará un punto de quiebre o si, una vez más, escalará hasta convertirse en guerra.
- La superposición de festividades religiosas —Ramadán y Pascua judía— convirtió la Explanada de las Mezquitas en un polvorín donde cualquier chispa podía resultar fatal.
- Más de 170 personas resultaron heridas en enfrentamientos entre manifestantes palestinos y la policía israelí durante el fin de semana, elevando la tensión a niveles no vistos desde el conflicto de once días del año anterior.
- Desde Gaza se lanzaron cohetes hacia Israel; uno cayó cerca de Sderot sin causar víctimas, mientras el sistema Cúpula de Hierro interceptaba cuatro más antes de que alcanzaran zonas pobladas.
- Israel respondió con ataques aéreos nocturnos sobre el centro de Gaza, y el primer ministro Bennett intentó contener la escalada política bloqueando una marcha nacionalista judía que habría agravado aún más la situación.
- El secretario general de la ONU expresó su profunda preocupación, y la comunidad internacional teme que las condiciones que desencadenaron la guerra del año pasado estén repitiéndose con inquietante fidelidad.
La noche del jueves volvió a romperse con el sonido de los aviones. Cazas israelíes bombardearon objetivos en el centro de Gaza después de la medianoche, en respuesta a cohetes lanzados desde el enclave palestino. Uno de ellos había caído en un campo cerca de Sderot sin causar heridos; horas después, cuatro más fueron interceptados por el sistema Cúpula de Hierro antes de alcanzar zonas habitadas.
El detonante inmediato era el de siempre, pero la causa más profunda estaba en Jerusalén. La Explanada de las Mezquitas —tercer lugar más sagrado del islam y el más sagrado del judaísmo— había sido escenario de violentos enfrentamientos durante todo el fin de semana. Más de 170 personas resultaron heridas en los choques entre manifestantes palestinos y la policía israelí. La coincidencia del Ramadán con la Pascua judía hacía que cada gesto, cada presencia, cada restricción adquiriera un peso simbólico insoportable.
La política complicaba aún más el panorama. El miércoles por la noche, la policía israelí había impedido que cientos de manifestantes nacionalistas judíos, muchos de ellos seguidores del diputado de extrema derecha Itamar Ben Gvir, entraran al Barrio Musulmán de la Ciudad Vieja. El primer ministro Naftali Bennett, al frente de una coalición frágil que acababa de perder su mayoría parlamentaria, había prohibido personalmente la presencia de Ben Gvir en la zona, declarando que no permitiría que una provocación política pusiera en riesgo a soldados y policías.
La memoria del año anterior pesaba sobre cada decisión. En 2021, una marcha nacionalista similar había sido la chispa que encendió once días de guerra con Hamas. Ahora, con los mismos ingredientes sobre la mesa —festividades religiosas, movimientos políticos que empujan los límites, un gobierno dividido y grupos armados en alerta—, la pregunta no era si el ciclo continuaría, sino hasta dónde llegaría esta vez.
The cycle turned violent again on Thursday night. Israeli warplanes struck Gaza after midnight, hitting targets in the center of the enclave in response to rocket fire that had begun arriving from Palestinian territory. One rocket had crashed into a field near the Israeli city of Sderot without injuring anyone. Hours later, four more rockets were launched from Gaza. Israel's air defense system, known as the Iron Dome, intercepted them before they could reach populated areas. It was the latest exchange in what had become nearly a month of recurring violence between Israel and the Palestinian territories.
The immediate trigger was clear enough, but the deeper cause lay in Jerusalem, where the city's most sacred religious sites had become a flashpoint. The Esplanade of the Mosques—the third holiest place in Islam and the holiest in Judaism, where it is called the Temple Mount—had been the scene of clashes all weekend. Palestinian protesters and Israeli police had collided there repeatedly, leaving more than 170 people injured by Sunday. The timing made everything worse. The confrontations coincided with Ramadan, when Muslims fast and pray intensively, and with Passover, the Jewish holiday. The presence of Israeli police and Jewish visitors on the esplanade during these overlapping sacred observances struck Palestinians and regional governments as deliberately provocative.
The political dimension added another layer of danger. On Wednesday night, Israeli police had blocked hundreds of Jewish nationalist demonstrators from entering the Muslim Quarter of Jerusalem's Old City. Many of them were supporters of Itamar Ben Gvir, a far-right member of parliament. Prime Minister Naftali Bennett had already barred Ben Gvir from the area that morning, issuing a statement that he would not allow "a political provocation by Ben Gvir" to endanger Israeli soldiers and police. Bennett himself leads a fragile coalition government that spans the ideological spectrum, though it had recently lost its single-seat majority in parliament when one member withdrew.
The history here was impossible to ignore. A year earlier, a similar nationalist march in the Old City had been the spark that ignited a much larger conflict. Hamas had launched a barrage of rockets in response, and the resulting war had lasted eleven days. The international community was watching closely. Antonio Guterres, the United Nations Secretary General, was described by his spokesman as "deeply concerned" about the deteriorating situation in Jerusalem.
What made this moment particularly fragile was the combination of elements in play: religious holidays overlapping, nationalist political movements pushing boundaries, a government trying to maintain control while managing internal divisions, and armed groups ready to respond to any perceived escalation. The rocket fire and airstrikes of Thursday night were not isolated incidents. They were part of a pattern that had been building for weeks, with each side responding to the other's actions, each response raising the temperature further. The question now was whether the cycle would stabilize or whether the conditions that had triggered an eleven-day war the previous year were assembling themselves again.
Notable Quotes
I will not allow a political provocation by Ben Gvir to endanger Israeli soldiers and police— Prime Minister Naftali Bennett
Deeply concerned by the deterioration of the situation in Jerusalem— UN Secretary General António Guterres, via spokesman
The Hearth Conversation Another angle on the story
Why did the rocket fire happen on Thursday specifically? Was there a trigger that day?
Not a single trigger that day—it was the accumulation. The clashes at the Esplanade had been happening all weekend. By Thursday, the tensions were already at a boil. The rocket fire was a response to the broader situation, not to one event.
And the Israeli government knew this was dangerous? They'd seen it before?
They had. A year earlier, almost exactly this scenario—nationalist marches, the same location, the same religious overlap—had led to eleven days of war. Bennett's government was actively trying to prevent that from happening again by blocking the march.
But they couldn't fully control it.
No. You can block a march, but you can't control the underlying tensions. The police were still there on the Esplanade. Jewish visitors were still there during Ramadan. From the Palestinian perspective, that itself was the provocation.
So the airstrikes on Thursday—were those proportional, or were they escalation?
They were response, not initiation. But in a situation this tense, the distinction blurs. Israel intercepted the rockets, then struck back. Hamas's armed wing fired at the Israeli planes. Each side saw itself as responding. That's how these cycles work.
What happens next?
That depends on whether either side decides to push further. The government is trying to hold the line. But if another march happens, or if the clashes resume at the Esplanade, the whole thing could accelerate again.