For a decade, foot-and-mouth disease has moved quietly across Nigeria's vast livestock landscape, but a new analysis of outbreak records from 2015 to 2025 has brought its shifting geography into sharp relief. What once spread across the North Central region has now consolidated with striking force in the northwest — particularly the Zamfara-Kebbi-Sokoto belt — which now carries more than seven in ten of the country's reported outbreaks. The disease does not spread evenly or steadily; it surges, lingers, and concentrates, and understanding that rhythm is the first condition of responding wisely
Nigeria's foot-and-mouth disease outbreak burden shifts to northwest hotspot
71.3% of reported outbreaks now cluster in the northwest
Mark
So this is saying the disease moved from one region to another over a decade. What made it move?
Mimi
The analysis doesn't explain the mechanism—it just maps where outbreaks were officially reported. The shift could reflect actual disease movement, or changes in how well different regions detect and report cases, or both.
Luke
Right. And that's the key limitation. We're reading official reports, not ground truth. If Zamfara suddenly had better surveillance in 2023, it would look like an outbreak surge even if disease burden hadn't changed.
Mimi
True. But 71.3 percent of national outbreaks in one region is a pretty stark concentration, even if there's some reporting bias baked in.
Mark
Why does it matter which states are the hotspot?
Mimi
Because resources are finite. If you know where the disease is clustering, you can deploy veterinarians and vaccination campaigns there first. You're not spreading effort thin across the whole country.
Luke
But the paper also says low-burden border states need capacity assessment. That suggests the researchers aren't confident those states are actually disease-free—they might just be under-detecting.
Mark
So the real problem might be bigger than the official numbers show.
Mimi
Possibly. The sustained high reporting after 2021 suggests the disease isn't going away on its own. Something structural is keeping it circulating in the northwest.
Luke
And we don't know what that is from this analysis. It could be livestock movement patterns, vaccination gaps, wildlife reservoirs, trade routes—the spatial data alone can't tell you the cause.
The Pulse
- Two major outbreak surges — in 2017 and 2021 — punctuate a decade of FMD reporting, but unlike the first, the 2021 peak never fully receded, leaving Nigeria in a prolonged state of elevated disease burden through 2024.
- The geographic center of gravity has shifted decisively: what was once a North Central problem has become a northwest crisis, with Zamfara, Kebbi, and Sokoto now accounting for 71.3% of all nationally reported outbreaks.
- Spatial statistical tools confirmed this consolidation is not noise — it is a structural reorganization of where Nigeria's FMD burden actually lives, anchored on a persistent regional hotspot.
- Border states surrounding the high-burden zone report low outbreak numbers, but researchers warn this may reflect surveillance gaps rather than genuine disease absence — a blind spot that could allow silent spread across state lines.
- The path forward requires a two-track response: concentrated veterinary deployment into the Zamfara-Kebbi-Sokoto belt, and structured surveillance capacity assessments in the quieter border regions before they become tomorrow's hotspots.
For a decade, foot-and-mouth disease has moved quietly across Nigeria's vast livestock landscape, but a new analysis of outbreak records from 2015 to 2025 has brought its shifting geography into sharp relief. What once spread across the North Central region has now consolidated with striking force in the northwest — particularly the Zamfara-Kebbi-Sokoto belt — which now carries more than seven in ten of the country's reported outbreaks. The disease does not spread evenly or steadily; it surges, lingers, and concentrates, and understanding that rhythm is the first condition of responding wisely.
Foot-and-mouth disease has long troubled Nigeria's livestock sector, but where exactly it concentrates — and how that has changed — remained poorly understood until researchers mapped a full decade of outbreak data across all 36 states and the Federal Capital Territory. The picture that emerged is one of episodic surges and geographic drift, not a steady or uniform spread.
Two peaks define the decade: a surge in 2017 and a larger one in 2021. What makes the 2021 peak significant is what followed — rather than subsiding, outbreak activity remained elevated through 2024, suggesting either persistent transmission, improved detection, or both. This sustained high reporting marks a clear departure from earlier patterns.
Geographically, the disease has undergone a fundamental reorganization. In 2017, burden was distributed across the North Central region. By 2023, it had consolidated sharply in the northwest, with Zamfara, Kebbi, and Sokoto emerging as the dominant hotspot. The northwest now accounts for 71.3 percent of all officially reported FMD outbreaks nationally — a concentration confirmed through multiple spatial analysis methods including Global Moran's I and Gi* statistics. Southern states, by contrast, have remained consistently low-burden zones, creating a stark north-south divide.
The findings carry clear operational implications. The Zamfara-Kebbi-Sokoto belt needs prioritized field investigation and veterinary resources directed where the disease is actually concentrated. But researchers also flag a subtler risk: border states currently reporting low outbreak numbers cannot be assumed safe. Without structured assessment of their surveillance capacity, it remains unknown whether quiet reporting reflects genuine disease absence or simply gaps in detection — gaps through which the disease could spread unnoticed.
Foot-and-mouth disease has been a persistent problem in Nigeria for years, but exactly where the disease concentrates and how that concentration has shifted over time remained unclear until now. Researchers analyzing a decade of outbreak reports from 2015 to 2025 have mapped the disease's movement across Nigeria's 36 states and the Federal Capital Territory, revealing a pattern that demands urgent attention in the country's northwest.
The outbreak data, drawn from the World Animal Health Information System, shows that FMD burden in Nigeria follows an episodic rhythm rather than a steady climb. Two major surges stand out: one in 2017 and another in 2021. The 2021 peak proved particularly consequential—rather than subsiding, reported outbreak activity remained elevated through 2024, suggesting either persistent transmission or improved detection, or both. This sustained high reporting after 2021 marks a departure from the earlier pattern and signals that the disease has not retreated.
Geographically, the story is one of consolidation. In 2017, outbreak burden was distributed across the North Central region. By 2023, the disease had concentrated decisively in the northwest, with three states—Zamfara, Kebbi, and Sokoto—emerging as the dominant hotspot. Together with surrounding areas, the northwest now accounts for 71.3 percent of all officially reported FMD outbreaks nationally. This is not a marginal shift; it represents a fundamental reorganization of where Nigeria's FMD problem actually lives.
Spatial analysis using statistical tools including Global Moran's I, Local Indicators of Spatial Association, and Gi* statistics traced this transition in detail. The picture that emerged shows a baseline of fragmented, low-burden reporting gradually giving way to a consolidated hotspot anchored on the Zamfara-Kebbi-Sokoto belt. Meanwhile, southern states have remained persistently low-burden zones, creating a stark geographic divide between north and south.
The implications are direct. The Zamfara-Kebbi-Sokoto belt now warrants prioritized field investigation and veterinary deployment—resources should flow to where the disease is actually concentrating. But the analysis also flags a secondary concern: states bordering the high-burden zone that currently report low outbreak numbers cannot simply be left to passive monitoring. These border regions need structured assessment of their surveillance capacity to determine whether low reporting reflects genuine low disease burden or merely gaps in detection and reporting infrastructure. Without that clarity, the disease could spread undetected across state lines.
Notable Quotes
The Zamfara-Kebbi-Sokoto belt warrants prioritisation for field investigation and veterinary deployment— Study analysis
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