Nifty 50 poised for gains as FII inflows strengthen; eight stocks to watch

The Indian stock market opened Monday with a gap higher, closing above the 25,800 mark on the Nifty 50 and signaling a week shaped by three converging forces: a freshly minted trade agreement between India and the United States, a meaningful surge in foreign investor buying, and steady domestic participation that has kept the market from swinging wildly in either direction.

The India-US interim trade deal is being read by market analysts as a structural advantage for Indian exporters, a shift that anchors sentiment even as global conditions remain uncertain. Foreign institutional investors, who had been cautious in recent months, turned notably supportive on Monday, purchasing shares worth ₹2,255 crore. Domestic institutional investors added ₹4 crore in buying, a modest figure but one that underscores the absence of panic selling. The rupee, meanwhile, held relatively steady, trading at 90.70 against the dollar—a minor weakness of 6 paise but well within the range analysts expect for the coming weeks.

The technical picture for the Nifty 50 suggests room to run higher. The index reclaimed its 50-day moving average, positioned near 25,795, which now serves as a floor for near-term support. Momentum indicators are aligned in the bulls' favor: the MACD has already flashed a buy signal, and the Relative Strength Index remains above the 50 level, a threshold that typically indicates neither overbought nor oversold conditions. Analysts see potential for the index to push toward 26,000, with a decisive break above that level capable of triggering short covering that could propel it further to 26,200.

The Bank Nifty, which tracks the financial sector, has consolidated its recent gains and is holding above its short-term moving averages. The RSI has crossed above 60, a sign of sustained momentum, and the broader structure remains bullish with the base gradually shifting higher—a pattern that suggests accumulation at elevated prices. Support sits near 60,000, with resistance visible around 60,900.

Precious metals, by contrast, are under pressure. Gold and silver both opened lower on Monday morning in international trading, with gold touching an intraday low of $5,012.01 per ounce and silver falling to $80.525 per ounce. Both metals have corrected sharply from recent highs—gold from above $5,500, silver from record levels above $121—and are now trading below key moving averages, a sign that the short-term momentum has turned bearish. The broader bullish structure for these commodities remains intact on longer timeframes, but the pullback suggests an extended corrective phase is underway.

The rupee's near-term outlook is tied to these commodity movements and to the dollar index. Analysts expect the currency to trade in a range of 90.25 to 91.25 in the coming weeks, with potential headwinds from a shift in India's energy imports. As the country potentially reduces Russian oil purchases in favor of higher-priced U.S. energy and products, the import bill could widen, adding pressure to the currency.

With this backdrop in place, eight stocks have drawn recommendations from technical analysts for intraday trading: Karur Vysya Bank, Ramco Cement, NAUKRI, HDFC Life, Vedanta, LT, Belrise, and PTC India. Each comes with specific entry points, profit targets, and stop-loss levels designed for traders looking to capitalize on near-term price movements. The overall sentiment remains cautiously optimistic, anchored by trade-deal optimism and improving foreign flows, though the correction in precious metals and the narrow range expected for the rupee suggest that volatility could emerge if any of these supporting factors shifts.