Someone buying one pack from a friend counts the same as someone sourcing everything illegally
Across Britain, a growing number of smokers are quietly stepping outside the legal market to afford a habit that rising prices have made harder to sustain — nearly one in four now buys tobacco through illicit channels, up from one in eight just two years ago. The shift, documented in a study of nearly 10,000 smokers published in Nicotine & Tobacco Research, speaks less to a collapse of enforcement than to the quiet arithmetic of financial pressure. Researchers caution that the numbers measure who buys illegally, not how much, leaving the true scale of the shadow market uncertain. The finding arrives at a pivotal moment, as the UK prepares to enact generational tobacco reform that will test whether law and enforcement can move together.
- The share of UK smokers buying tobacco illegally has nearly doubled in two years, reaching almost one in four — a pace of change that demands explanation even if it does not yet signal catastrophe.
- Financial strain is the engine: smokers squeezed by the cost of living are turning to friends and under-the-counter deals at corner shops rather than paying full retail prices.
- Researchers warn the headline figure may overstate the crisis — someone who once bought a single pack from a friend is counted the same as a habitual illicit buyer, and government data suggests the overall shadow market has not dramatically expanded.
- A quieter alarm runs alongside: teenagers are still buying cigarettes from ordinary high street shops with little resistance, a failure that grows more consequential as Britain moves to ban tobacco sales to anyone born after 2009.
- The Smokefree Generation policy now looms as the real test — industry warnings that it will fuel illicit trade are contested by modelling suggesting reduced demand will shrink both markets, but only if enforcement is genuinely resourced and retailers genuinely comply.
Nearly one in four British smokers now buys tobacco from illegal sources, according to research published this summer in Nicotine & Tobacco Research — a sharp rise from roughly one in eight just two years earlier. The study tracked close to 10,000 smokers across 2025, comparing results to earlier data from 2023.
The driver is largely economic. As Professor Sarah Jackson of UCL explained, people under financial pressure are looking for ways to cut what they spend on cigarettes. Some switch to cheaper legal products or smoke less; a growing number are turning to illicit channels — buying from friends or under the counter at newsagents and corner shops.
The numbers, though, require careful interpretation. The study recorded whether someone bought from an illegal source, not how often or in what quantities. A person who bought a single pack from a friend counts the same as someone who sources most of their tobacco illegally. Government estimates suggest the overall illicit market has actually declined substantially since the early 2000s and has not recently surged. ASH chief executive Hazel Cheeseman urged continued monitoring without complacency.
A separate concern surfaced in the same data: among 16- and 17-year-olds who had purchased tobacco, nearly three-quarters reported buying it from ordinary high street retailers — shops legally required to check age. This pattern takes on new weight as Britain prepares to implement its Smokefree Generation policy, which will make it illegal to sell tobacco to anyone born on or after January 1, 2009, gradually raising the age of sale as each cohort ages.
The tobacco industry has argued the policy will push people toward illicit sources, but previous modelling suggests the opposite — that reducing demand will shrink both legal and illicit markets together. The real test, as Professor Jackson noted, will be enforcement: retailers must comply, officials must act, and the public must understand what has changed. The study's snapshot, imperfect as any self-reported data must be, arrives at a moment when the UK is preparing to reshape tobacco policy in ways not seen in a generation.
Nearly one in four British smokers now buys tobacco from illegal sources, according to research published this summer in Nicotine & Tobacco Research. The finding marks a sharp climb from just two years earlier, when the figure stood at roughly one in eight. The study tracked nearly 10,000 people aged 16 and over who identified as current smokers, surveying them repeatedly across 2025 and comparing the results to earlier data from 2023.
The shift reflects a straightforward economic pressure. As Professor Sarah Jackson from UCL's Institute of Epidemiology and Health Care explained, people facing financial strain are seeking ways to reduce what they spend on cigarettes. Some switch to cheaper legal products. Others cut back on how much they smoke or attempt to quit entirely. A growing number, though, are turning to illicit channels—buying tobacco cheaply from friends or purchasing it under the counter from otherwise legitimate shops like newsagents and corner stores.
Yet the numbers warrant careful reading. While the proportion of smokers buying from illegal sources has nearly doubled, this does not necessarily mean the illicit market itself has expanded dramatically. Professor Jamie Brown, also from UCL, noted that the study captured whether people bought from different sources but not how often they did so or in what quantities. Someone who buys a single pack from a friend counts the same as someone who sources most of their tobacco illegally. Government estimates, according to Action on Smoking and Health, suggest the overall illicit tobacco market has actually declined substantially since the early 2000s and has not recently surged.
Still, the trend warrants vigilance. Hazel Cheeseman, chief executive of ASH, cautioned against complacency. The findings suggest a need for continued monitoring and sustained enforcement efforts to prevent illegal tobacco sales, even if they do not signal an imminent crisis.
A separate concern emerged from the same data: underage access to tobacco through legal retailers remains disturbingly easy. Among 16- and 17-year-olds who had purchased tobacco, nearly three-quarters reported buying it from newsagents and corner shops—ordinary high street outlets that are supposed to check age at the till. This pattern has persisted for years, but it takes on new weight as Britain prepares to implement its Smokefree Generation policy, set to make it illegal to sell tobacco to anyone born on or after January 1, 2009. The policy will gradually raise the age of sale as cohorts age through the population.
The tobacco industry has argued that this policy will drive people toward illicit sources. Previous modelling studies, however, suggest the opposite: that substantially reducing demand for tobacco will shrink both legal and illicit markets. The real test will be enforcement. As Professor Jackson emphasized, changing the law is only part of the equation. Retailers must comply, enforcement must be effective, and the public must understand what has changed. Alongside the legal framework, efforts to help people quit smoking or switch to less harmful nicotine products will be essential.
The study also found that most smokers still obtain tobacco through traditional retail channels—supermarkets, corner shops, and similar outlets. Cross-border purchases increased as international travel resumed after the pandemic. Online buying remained rare. The research relied on self-reported data, which carries inherent limitations around memory and social desirability bias, and it did not measure how much tobacco people bought from each source, a significant gap when trying to assess the true size of the illicit market. Still, the snapshot it provides comes at a crucial moment, just as the UK government prepares to reshape tobacco policy in ways not seen in a generation.
Notable Quotes
Financial pressures many people have faced in recent years are driving them to look for ways to reduce the cost of smoking, including switching to cheaper legal products, cutting down, or trying to quit completely.— Professor Sarah Jackson, UCL Institute of Epidemiology and Health Care
The findings suggest a need to continue monitoring trends closely and maintain efforts to prevent illegal tobacco sales, without being complacent about past successes in controlling illegal tobacco.— Hazel Cheeseman, Chief Executive, Action on Smoking and Health
The Hearth Conversation Another angle on the story
So the headline says nearly a quarter of smokers buy illegally now. That sounds like a crisis. Is it?
It's more complicated than that. Yes, the proportion doubled in two years. But the researchers themselves are careful to say this doesn't necessarily mean the illegal market got twice as big. Someone buying one pack from a friend counts the same as someone who sources everything illegally.
Then what's actually happening?
People are under financial pressure. Cigarettes are expensive. Some are trying to quit or switching to cheaper legal products. Others are buying from friends or getting tobacco sold under the counter at ordinary shops. It's a response to cost, not necessarily a sign the criminal supply chain has exploded.
But underage kids are still buying from legal shops easily. That seems like a real problem.
It is. Three-quarters of 16- and 17-year-olds who bought tobacco said they got it from newsagents and corner shops. That's been happening for years, but it matters now because the UK is about to ban tobacco sales to anyone born after 2009. If retailers can't even check age now, how will they enforce a whole new legal framework?
The tobacco industry says this new policy will just push people to illegal sources.
That's their argument. But the modelling suggests the opposite—that if you reduce demand overall, both legal and illegal markets shrink. The real question is whether enforcement will actually work.
What would that look like?
Clear communication with retailers, actual inspections, penalties that matter. And supporting people who want to quit or switch to less harmful nicotine. You can't just change the law and hope for the best.